Wednesday, September 15, 2010

O'Donnell, Ayotte, and the Power of Palin

If there has been anything we have learned during the 2010 primary season it is that conservatives are angry, energized, and fighting for control of the Republican Party.

When the "Tea Party" began its ascendency, many in the media predicted that these conservatives would form a third party siphoning off votes from the GOP, leading to Democratic wins in closely contested elections.  For the most part, Tea Party groups have taken a different tack: confronting "establishment" or "mainstream" Republican candidates in a handful of crucial primaries, particularly in U.S. Senate races throughout the country.  

The Tea Party can claim some credit for conservative GOP primary upsets in U.S. Senate races in Kentucky, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and last night in Delaware.  The movement can also claim credit for upsets in the New York Gubernatorial primary, and in House races throughout the country.

Perhaps the most visible leader of the Tea Party movement is 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin.  Palin, whose brief foray onto the national stage in the 2008 election season made her a favorite of conservatives and drew the ire of liberals, has proven to be a powerhouse during the primary election season.  The former Alaska governor, utilizing social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, has endorsed conservative, usually tea-party backed, Republican candidates in races across the country.

Palin's endorsement record started out strong, waned slightly over the summer, and then helped account for two of the biggest upsets in recent political history.  First, Palin waded back into Alaska politics by endorsing conservative attorney Joe Miller in his bid to unseat moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski.  Miller was the heavy underdog until Election Day, when he ousted Murkowski.  Then, Palin endorsed conservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Senate primary.  Last night O'Donnell shocked long-time congressman and former Delaware Governor Mike Castle, who is one of the most liberal GOP members of the Congress.

Palin also waded into the contested New Hampshire Senate primary by backing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.  This endorsement actually put Palin at odds with many in the tea party movement who preferred Ovide Lamontagne.  Ayotte appears to have narrowly won the primary, largely due to Palin's endorsement.

The 2010 primary season ends as one of the most unique and entertaining primary seasons in recent memory.  In some cases, like in the Delaware Senate race, by veering to the right Republicans probably nominated a candidate who is less likely to win in November.  The question to ask yourself is whether this is a bad thing.  I think not.  If it takes liberal Republicans like Mike Castle to take back Congress, I would rather the Democrats just stay in power.  I would rather the Republican Party lose with a conservative on the ballot than win with a liberal on the GOP line.

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