An influential Blue Dog Democrat will face his second tough test of 2010 to retain his northern Florida seat.
Florida's 2nd district is made up of a mixture of inland and oceanside counties in the eastern part of the Florida panhandle. Over 40% of the 2nd's population resides in Leon County, which includes the state capital of Tallahassee. The 2nd also includes resort areas along the Gulf Coast, including Panama City and Panama City Beach. The African-American percentage in the district is 22%.
Tallahassee, with its multitude of government employees, usually supports Democrats. The district's high percentage of African-Americans also vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The resort towns along the coast are mostly Republican. Many of the rural counties are, like most of the South, historically Democratic, but in recent years they have become more friendly to Republicans. The result is a closely divided district. George W. Bush twice carried this area and John McCain performed much better here than he did in the other parts of Florida, beating Barack Obama 54%-45% in the 2nd.
Since 1996, the 2nd has been represented by moderate Democrat Allen Boyd. Boyd, a farmer from Jefferson County, has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has been an active member of the House Blue Dogs, a group of moderate-to-conservative southern Democrats. Boyd has earned the ire of Democrat Party leaders for his willingness to buck the party line and vote with Republicans. Boyd holds seats on the powerful Appropriations and Budget Committees.
In the 111th Congress, Boyd made news by original opposing Obama's health care bill, but in March switching to support the legislation. Boyd also angered many in the 2nd when he voted in support of the cap and trade legislation.
Boyd's moderate views have long put him at odds with 2nd district liberals and this culminated in a fierce primary battle this August. Boyd was challenged by liberal African-American State Senator Al Lawson who criticized Boyd for his moderate voting record. Boyd countered by touting his support for the Obama stimulus bill, climate change legislation, and the health care reform bill. Ultimately, Boyd narrowly survived 51%-49% to move on to the November general election.
Five Republicans ran in the GOP primary. The clear winner, with over 48% of the vote, was Panama City Funeral Home Owner Steve Southerland. Southerland had long been active in local civic groups, but this is his first foray into politics. Southerland is hoping to capitalize on the anti-Washington mood of many voters in the district as well as voter discontent with Boyd's moves to the left in the Democratic primary.
Despite having to spend nearly $1 million during the Democratic primary, Boyd will enter the stretch run with a large cash on hand advantage over Southerland. Boyd's camp is claiming that the tough election (the primary) is over and that he will roll to re-election in November. However, this race is listed as a toss-up by nearly every political handicapper (Rothenberg actually has this race rated "Tilt Republican"). Boyd has never had a serious Republican challenger in his congressional career. If a GOP wave builds, there is a good chance it will sweep Southerland into office.
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