This November, Republicans are hopeful that Arkansas' 1st congressional district will elect a Republican for the first time since Reconstruction.
The 1st consists of 26 counties in northeast, north central, and east central Arkansas. This area is very poor by national standards with over 20% of the population living below the poverty line. The 1st contains many small towns, with only Jonesboro having more than 50,000 people. Farming is a way of life in the 1st, with rice being the primary crop, especially along the fertile Mississippi River delta. Tourism is a growth industry in parts of the 1st, as towns in the Ozarks like Mountain Home and Mountain View have become popular family vacation destinations.
The political heritage here, like in most of the rural south, is Democratic. While other rural parts of the South trended heavily Republican in the 1980s and 1990s, the 1st remained supportive of national Democrats, even voting for Al Gore 50%-48% in 2000. George W. Bush managed a 52%-47% margin in 2004. In 2008, while most of the nation moved noticeably toward the Democrats, the 1st took a huge leap in the opposite direction, favoring John McCain 59%-38% over Barack Obama. The Jonesboro area and the Little Rock suburbs in Lonoke County have been moving steadily toward the Republicans, while the rest of the district maintains its historic preference for southern-oriented Democrats.
The 1st has, for the last 150 years, sent conservative Democrats to Congress. Since 1996, the 1st has sent rice farmer and former Clinton White House liaison Marion Berry to Congress. Berry won a narrow election to Congress in 1996 with 53% against a former Jonesboro city attorney. Since then, Berry has been re-elected with at least 60% of the vote and has been unopposed for re-election twice. Berry joined the Blue Dog Democrats and became an influential member of both the Budget and Appropriations Committees, where he made no bones about bringing federal dollars to his impoverished district.
In January 2010, Berry surprised much of the Washington establishment when he announced he would not seek re-election to Congress. Berry cited ailing health in his retirement announcement, but many observers wondered if the decision was made easier by the rising unpopularity of national Democrats in the 1st.
Republican Rick Crawford had already begun his campaign when Berry decided to retire. Crawford served in the U.S. Army and then graduated from Arkansas State University in Jonesboro. After college, Crawford became a successful farm broadcaster, sold farm equipment, and founded a farm news network that can be heard throughout the south and midwest. Crawford easily won the May Republican primary with 72% of the vote against Princella Smith.
Six Democrats ran in the Democratic primary. Former Arkansas State Senator and State Representative Tim Wooldridge led after the May primary with 38% of the vote, Berry's Chief of Staff Chad Causey finished second with 27% while State Senator Steve Bryles, State Representative David Cook and two other candidates lagged behind. Under Arkansas law, since no candidate reached the 50% threshold in the primary, a runoff election was held on June 8 between Wooldridge and Causey. Causey secured the endorsements of Bryles and Cook and prevailed in the runoff 51%-49% by a margin of just over 2,000 votes.
Causey has moderate stances on most issues and is the type of Democrat who has represented the 1st throughout its history. However, voter unhappiness with national Democrats is at record highs in the 1st and Causey faces an uphill battle to define himself as an outsider due to his Washington connections. Causey is also at a financial disadvantage heading into the general election, with less than $100,000 cash on hand at the last reporting period due to his having to spend freely to win the Democratic nomination.
Crawford is the favorite with less than two months until Election Day. An August Talk Business Poll of 630 likely voters had Crawford leading Causey 48%-32%. A Republican House majority will certainly have to go through Arkansas, with Republicans probably needing to win the open seats in both the 1st and the neighboring 2nd in order to secure 218 seats in the 112th Congress.
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