A surprise resignation has created a Republican pick-up opportunity in the Pacific Northwest.
Washington's 3rd Congressional District covers the southwest portion of the state, stretching east to west from the Pacific Ocean to the Cascade Mountains and north to south from the southern part of Olympia to the Oregon border. This part of Washington has seen huge population growth in the last 20 years, with most of the growth centered on two areas: Olympia and its suburbs and the suburbs north of Portland, Oregon in Clark County including the robust city of Vancouver. Clark County's population is estimated to be near 440,000 when the 2010 census numbers come in.
The political heritage of this area is Democratic, but the population boom has brought new voters to the area who seem to be willing to support candidates of either political party. The 3rd voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004 (50%-48%) and for Barack Obama by a larger margin (53%-46%) in 2008. The Olympia area is trending Democratic as it fills up with trendy young singles and state employees. Clark County is a fierce political battleground that tends to vote much like the nation as a whole and more Republican than most of Washington.
For 12 years, the 3rd has been represented by Democrat Brian Baird. Baird, a former clinical psychologist, was a popular figure in the district who could boast of several important legislative achievements, including the federal income tax deduction for state sales taxes. In 1996, Baird narrowly lost his first bid to represent the 3rd, by less than 900 votes, to conservative freshman Republican Congresswoman Linda Smith. In 1998, when Smith ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate, Baird won the open seat with 55% of the vote and held it comfortably in each successive election.
Baird would certainly have been a formidable opponent for any Republican, even in an election environment favorable to the GOP. In December 2009, however, Baird announced that he would not seek a seventh term and would instead retire to spend more time with his wife and twin 4-year old sons. Baird denied that his retirement had anything to do with the negative feedback he received in a series of townhall meetings he held in summer and fall of 2009 concerning health care reform. One of his constituents' complaints went viral and received over a million views on YouTube.
With Baird out of the picture, both parties recognized that there would be a competitive race in this swing district. The district's Democrats rallied behind the candidacy of ex-State Representative and media mogul Denny Heck. Heck, a Clark County native, had been State House Majority Leader, chief of staff to Washington Governor Booth Gardner, and, after making his fortune in digital streaming technology, had created a television network devoted to C-SPAN style coverage of Washington state government.
Two Republicans were already running for the seat prior to Baird's retirement announcement: Navy Veteran David Castillo and David Hedrick, a tea party backed conservative whose comments at a Baird townhall meeting had made him an internet celebrity. Just hours after Baird announced his intentions, State Representative Jaime Herrera became the third Republican in the race. Herrera, 31, was a legislative assistant to Washington Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers prior to being appointed to the Washington House in 2007. Herrera won a full term in the state legislature in 2008. She earned a reputation as a pro-business conservative during her three years in Olympia.
Three Republicans, two Democrats, and one independent ran in the August 17th "jungle" primary, in which all candidates run on the same ballot with the top two candidates advancing to the general election regardless of their party affiliation. Heck finished first with 31% of the vote. Herrera was second with 28%. Hedrick garnered 14%, Castillo got 12%, and Democrat Cheryl Crist, who had challenged Baird in 2008, won 11%. Overall, Republican candidates took 54% and Democratic candidates took 42%.
Herrera quickly won the endorsements of both Hedrick and Castillo and the large gap between the two parties vote percentages in the jungle primary made the Herrera-Heck match-up an obvious chance for the GOP to pick-up a seat. Herrera will need financial help to stave off a large cash on hand deficit at the last reporting period ($700,000 to $100,000 advantage for Heck) and both national parties have targeted the district. Despite the money shortage, Herrera had reason to be optimistic: a late August SurveyUSA poll showed Herrera leading Heck 54%-41%.
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