A rematch in a different political environment could result in an upstate New York district turning from blue to red in November.
New York's 24th district is a J-shaped cluster of mostly rural counties in upstate New York. The largest cities in the district are in Oneida County, Utica and Rome. Most of the counties in the 24th have been steadily declining in population. As a whole, the 24th's population has declined by nearly 1% since 2000. Redistricting will likely take a toll on this district. Parts of the district have entered into the national consciousness: Cooperstown, in Otsego County, is the home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Oneida is home to a world-famous stainless steel factory, and the Turning Stone Resort is home to a bustling tourism industry.
This upstate region was historically a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, the 24th has moved perceptibly toward the Democrats. George W. Bush narrowly carried the 24th in 2004, but Barack Obama won the district 50%-48% in 2008.
In 2006, while New York Democrats were winning virtually everything in sight, the 24th elected moderate Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri to the House. Arcuri has a moderate voting record and, in an unusual move for a northern Democrat, joined the Blue Dogs.
In 2008, Arcuri was challenged by wealthy construction company owner Richard Hanna. Hanna ran as a moderate and spent freely from his personal fortune. Arcuri later admitted that he did not take Hanna seriously until late in the campaign. The result was a surprisingly close election with the winner not being officially declared until all absentee ballots were counted. Arcuri survived 52%-48%.
In the 111th Congress, Arcuri voted in favor the Obama health care package and for the Obama stimulus. He showed some independence by voting against the cap and trade legislation.
Hanna is back for a second shot at Arcuri this November. Both candidates are unopposed for their parties' nominations in the September 14 primary. This time, Arcuri is on notice of the serious threat that Hanna presents. Hanna has proved to be a serious fundraiser and enters the stretch run on a financial par with the incumbent.
This race is one of five or six Democratic-held New York seats that are in play in November. It will be interesting to see how the non-competitive statewide races (Democrats are heavily favored to win both Senate seats and the Governor's race) will or will not impact these down ballot races. At present, Arcuri is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the New York delegation. Hanna will only have to slightly improve his 2008 showing to defeat Arcuri, and 2010 is almost certain to be a much more favorable environment for Republicans throughout the country. How Hanna fares this time around will be a good gauge of how different this year's political landscape is from 2008.
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