A venerable Democratic political escape artist will need to survive perhaps the toughest challenge of his career to serve into his third decade in the U.S. House.
The 17th congressional district of Texas takes in a slice of central Texas running north and south from Fort Worth suburbs in Johnson County to areas just north of Huntsville. The district includes two Big 12 Universities, Texas A&M in College Station and Baylor in Waco. Waco is at the center of the 17th and over 30% of the district's population lives in that city.
This area long favored conservative Democrats, but in recent years has become overwhelmingly Republican. The Dallas-Fort Worth exurbs in the northern part of the district vote as heavily Republican as any area of the country. George W. Bush carried the 17th with 70% of the vote in 2004 and John McCain's winning percentage here was 67%-32%. Barack Obama won only 82,000 votes in the 17th. This district was made even more Republican by partisan GOP redistricters in the 2003 Texas redistricting.
All of this would lead one to assume that the 17th is represented by a conservative Republican in Congress. This assumption would, of course, be incorrect. The 17th is represented by Democrat Chet Edwards, a veteran member of the Democratic caucus and the political Harry Houdini of Texas politics. Edwards was first elected in 1990 in the Waco-based 11th district. This district was much more Democrat-friendly and Edwards had no trouble holding the seat throughout the 1990s. In 2002, Edwards narrowly survived a tough GOP challenge in a newly redrawn district. Then came the Texas GOP's partisan redistricting plan. Texas Republicans, led by Majority Leader Tom DeLay, targeted seven Democratic congressmen and drew lines with their defeats chiefly in mind. Of the seven, only Edwards survived the 2004 election (one retired and five were defeated).
Representing the most Republican district of any member of the House Democratic caucus, Edwards has bucked his party on many issues. Most notably of late, Edwards voted against President Obama's Health Care package. Edwards, however, often casts votes that put him at odds with large percentages of his constituents: voting against the partial-birth abortion ban and opposing the troop surge in Iraq.
The Republican nature of the district and the unpopularity of national Democrats in the 17th make this district an obvious GOP pick-up opportunity. Five Republicans ran in the March primary for the right to take on Edwards in November. Wealthy executive Bill Flores emerged from the primary in first place with 33% of the vote. Running in a close second place was Edwards's 2008 challenger, Rob Curnock, who held Edwards to a 53%-46% victory two years ago despite being outspent by nearly 20-to-1.
Under Texas law, Flores and Curnock advanced to an April runoff election. The tenor of the runoff campaign grew negative in the days before the vote. Curnock accused Flores of voting in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primary and of not voting at all in the general election. Flores countered that he was voting against Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary and that he was tied up with business on Election Day and did not get away in time to vote. Flores, in turn, raised questions about Curnock's large homestead tax exemption. Flores had more money to spend, and in relatively light turnout, defeated Curnock 65%-35% in the runoff.
Flores has a compelling personal story. He grew up in a family of modest means and put himself through college at Texas A&M. He rose to high level executive jobs with several energy companies, serving as Chief Financial Officer of various companies.
The campaign between Edwards and Flores has grown negative of late, with Edwards running ads accusing Flores of cutting thousands of jobs in his business career. Flores countered by producing affidavits from colleagues stating that Edwards's assertion is not true. Recently, Flores hinted that he may file a defamation lawsuit against Edwards.
Edwards has faced tough races before, but he has never faced a well-financed opponent in a Republican year with this set of district boundaries. Edwards has stockpiled money and has over $2 million cash on hand to spend in the coming days. Flores has raised over $1 million (over half of which has already been spent) and can dig into his own pockets if necessary. Edwards will need to distance himself from his unpopular party label if he stands any chance of pulling out another tough election victory in this heavily Republican district.
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