For the first time in a decade, an Indiana Democrat will face a new opponent in a battleground district.
Indiana's 9th congressional district takes in the mostly rural southeastern part of the Hoosier State. This part of the state has a southern flavor that stands in stark contrast to the Yankee tendencies of central and northern Indiana. There are two population centers in the 9th. One is in Bloomington, home of Indiana University. The other is in the Louisville, Kentucky suburbs in Clark County, where over 100,000 people live. Most of the 9th is filled with small towns where basketball has been a way of life for several generations.
Southern Indiana has maintained a stubborn Democratic tradition since the Civil War. Most of these counties were sympathetic to the Confederacy and maintained a hostility to all things northern for the next century. There are signs of change. The Clark County suburbs are filling up with affluent professionals who are voting increasingly Republican. Bloomington maintains a liberalism that is typical of most cities centered around a large University. Most of the rural counties, however, are still supportive of culturally conservative Democrats.
The result is a politically divided district. In local and state elections, Democrats traditionally run well in the 9th. However, the 9th generally supports national Republicans. George W. Bush won the 9th easily by a 59%-40% margin in 2004 and John McCain, while losing the state as a whole, defeated Barack Obama in the district 50%-49% in 2008.
Democrat Baron Hill has represented the 9th in the House from his first election in 1998 through 2004 and again since being returned to office in 2006. In four different elections from 2002-2008 the 9th was a battleground between Hill and bus company owner Mike Sodrel. Hill defeated Sodrel with 51% in 2002, but Sodrel turned the tables and ousted Hill in 2004. Hill regained the seat from Sodrel in 2006 and held it easily against Sodrel in 2008.
Hill is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Democrats and has a voting record that puts him near the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Hill supported much of President Obama's agenda, including an unpopular vote in favor of health care reform. Hill opposed TARP, but voted in favor of the Obama stimulus.
Four Republicans, including Sodrel, ran in the May GOP primary. The result was a close three-way election between Sodrel, real estate investor Travis Hankins, and former Marine and Orange County Prosecutor Todd Young. The end result showed that 9th district Republicans were ready for a new standard bearer. Young defeated Hankins by 1,200 votes, Sodrel finished third.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate who served in the Marine Corps. After being honorably discharged, Young received a Masters in politics at the University of London, worked briefly for the Heritage Foundation, and eventually earned his law degree at Indiana University. Prior to running for Congress, Young served as a deputy prosecutor in Orange County.
Hill will enter the final couple months of the campaign with a nearly 5-to-1 cash on hand advantage. Hill is well known to voters, but his history is not without its difficulties (see 2004). In a political environment that is shaping up to be worse for Indiana Democrats than 2004, Hill will really have to scramble to retain his seat. Young is a young and energetic candidate who seems to be good fit for the conservative-leaning district. Early polls have shown Young with a narrow lead. This race is rated as a toss-up by virtually all reputable handicappers. With Indiana's polls closing early (most are closed by 5:00 CST), the results in the 9th will be a good early indication of the types of gains Republicans can expect. If races like the Hill-Young race are breaking toward Republicans, it will be long night for Democrats from coast-to-coast.
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