Let me start by saying that I am not Todd Akin's biggest fan. I did not vote for him in the Republican primary because I felt like he would have trouble getting elected due to his very outspoken conservative beliefs (remember when comparing federal student loans to stage four cancer was the most controversial thing Akin had said?). I am always one to follow William F. Buckley's advice to Republican primary voters: Vote for the most conservative candidate who can win. I felt all three of the leading Republican candidates were conservative, but I felt either Sarah Steelman or John Brunner would have a better chance of winning the Senate seat for the GOP.
After Mr. Akin made his now infamous "legitimate rape" comment, I felt very strongly that he should leave the Senate race and allow a more electable conservative like Steelman or Brunner to take up the Republican mantle against Senator Claire McCaskill. I still feel that Akin made a very selfish decision to stay in the race, a decision that could very well cost the Republican Party control of the U.S. Senate when all is said and done.
That said, I will still vote for Todd Akin when I go to the polls on November 6. Why would I vote for someone who I clearly believe made a mistake by staying in the race? My answer is simple: Claire McCaskill. Claire McCaskill was swept into office in 2006, which was a terrible election year for Republicans who were hampered by the unpopularity of the Iraq War. McCaskill has been a key ally of President Barack Obama throughout all the political battles of the last four years. While McCaskill likes to play the "moderate" card, she has supported some of the largest and most egregious expansions of federal government power in our nation's history. She was a key vote in support of the health care legislation which is now universally known as Obamacare. She has voted to confirm liberal, activist judges who continue to chip away at our constitution rights from their perches on federal courts. She has very rarely strayed from the Democrat party line, unless her vote was unnecessary to the powers that be.
If her liberal record is not enough to convince a majority of Missourians to oppose her, perhaps this week's developments are. A major news story broke earlier this week saying that Senator McCaskill's husband, a wealthy nursing home owner, has been using his wife's connections to make deals in the backrooms of the United States Senate. There have been whisperings and allegations of the crony capitalism involved with Senator McCaskill' and her husband throughout her political career, but this recent story connects all the dots. Claire McCaskill is abusing her office and abusing the trust of the people of Missouri to advance the financial interests of her husband.
Todd Akin said a dumb thing. He has apologized for his comment and I believe he has learned from the experience. Claire McCaskill is abusing her office to garner political favors for her husband. To me, there is no comparison. McCaskill's behavior is infinitely worse and should disqualify her from holding the office of U.S. Senator.
Current polling seems to favor McCaskill, but it will be very interesting to see if this recent news story (which appeared as a headline on the popular Drudge Report) will have the impact that it should on this election.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
2012 Electoral Scorecard: Why We Should All Move to Ohio
I have spent the better part of the day crunching some numbers on the Presidential Election. I have analyzed data from five well-respected, non-partisan political sites: Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Electoral-Vote.com & Real Clear Politics. Here is what the race boils down to at this point in time.
Romney has 75 electoral votes completely locked down.
*Alabama (9)
*Arkansas (6)
*Kansas (6) - yes, Kansas has proved to be good for something!
*Louisiana (8)
*Nebraska (4 - Nebraska apportions three of its electoral votes based on the individual results in its three congressional districts. Romney is likely to garner all 5 of Nebraska's electoral votes, but Nebraska's third congressional district voted for Obama in 2008 and is not completely locked down for Romney)
*Utah (6)
*Wyoming (3)
*Alaska (3)
*Idaho (4)
*Kentucky (8)
*Mississippi (6)
*Oklahoma (7)
*West Virginia (3)
None of these should come as a surprise. What this teaches us is that we need more people to move to the South.
Obama has 142 electoral votes completely locked down.
*California (55)
*Washington DC (3)
*Delaware (3)
*Hawaii (4)
*Illinois (20)
*Maryland (10)
*Massachusetts (11)
*New York (29)
*Rhode Island (4)
*Vermont (3)
Again, no surprises here. These are states that today wouldn't vote for a Republican in a Presidential Election under virtually any circumstances.
Romney has a very strong advantage in the competition for an additional 112 electoral votes. These are states he must win in order to win the election. The good news is that currently it is difficult to imagine a set of circumstances in which he would lose any of these states.
*North Dakota (3)
*Nebraska 3rd district (1)
*South Dakota (3)
*Texas (38)
*South Carolina (9)
*Tennessee (11)
*Georgia (16)
*Indiana (11)
*Missouri (10)
*Arizona (11)
Obama has a "strong" advantage in several other states amounting to 94 additional electoral votes. Most of these states are locked in for Obama, but a couple near of the bottom of the list have tightened in recent days and could potentially go to Romney. If any states on this list are red on Election Day, we are virtually guaranteed to have a President Romney in January.
*Washington (12)
*New Jersey (14)
*Connecticut (7)
*New Mexico (5)
*Maine (4 - Maine divides its electoral votes identically to Nebraska so there is potential for splitting there)
*Oregon (7)
*Minnesota (10)
*Michigan (16)
*Pennsylvania (20)
Assuming none of these states switch in the next couple weeks, that leaves us with Obama leading Romney 237-187 with 110 electoral votes outstanding. This means Romney will need to win 82 of these electoral votes to win the election. Obama only needs to win 33. If we have a tie at 269-269 (which is possible), Romney will win and the Electoral College will likely be done away with forever (can you imagine the controversy!?).
*North Carolina (15)
*Florida (29)
*Virginia (13)
*Colorado (9)
*New Hampshire (4)
*Iowa (6)
*Nevada (6)
*Wisconsin (10)
*Ohio (18)
If the Election were held today, I feel pretty confident that Romney would win North Carolina, Florida & Virginia. The others are very difficult to feel strongly about for either side. My gut tells me that Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa & New Hampshire are going to be difficult for Romney, but Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket may allow the GOP ticket to carry Wisconsin.
What this all comes to (once again) is that it is going to be quite difficult, though not impossible, for Romney to win the Electoral College without carrying Ohio. No Republican has won the Presidency without carrying Ohio since basically the birth of the GOP. Ohio is such an interesting state politically and I will analyze the state in greater depth in a future blog post.
Despite losing two electoral votes since the last election, Ohio is once again front and center in the battle for the White House.
Romney has 75 electoral votes completely locked down.
*Alabama (9)
*Arkansas (6)
*Kansas (6) - yes, Kansas has proved to be good for something!
*Louisiana (8)
*Nebraska (4 - Nebraska apportions three of its electoral votes based on the individual results in its three congressional districts. Romney is likely to garner all 5 of Nebraska's electoral votes, but Nebraska's third congressional district voted for Obama in 2008 and is not completely locked down for Romney)
*Utah (6)
*Wyoming (3)
*Alaska (3)
*Idaho (4)
*Kentucky (8)
*Mississippi (6)
*Oklahoma (7)
*West Virginia (3)
None of these should come as a surprise. What this teaches us is that we need more people to move to the South.
Obama has 142 electoral votes completely locked down.
*California (55)
*Washington DC (3)
*Delaware (3)
*Hawaii (4)
*Illinois (20)
*Maryland (10)
*Massachusetts (11)
*New York (29)
*Rhode Island (4)
*Vermont (3)
Again, no surprises here. These are states that today wouldn't vote for a Republican in a Presidential Election under virtually any circumstances.
Romney has a very strong advantage in the competition for an additional 112 electoral votes. These are states he must win in order to win the election. The good news is that currently it is difficult to imagine a set of circumstances in which he would lose any of these states.
*North Dakota (3)
*Nebraska 3rd district (1)
*South Dakota (3)
*Texas (38)
*South Carolina (9)
*Tennessee (11)
*Georgia (16)
*Indiana (11)
*Missouri (10)
*Arizona (11)
Obama has a "strong" advantage in several other states amounting to 94 additional electoral votes. Most of these states are locked in for Obama, but a couple near of the bottom of the list have tightened in recent days and could potentially go to Romney. If any states on this list are red on Election Day, we are virtually guaranteed to have a President Romney in January.
*Washington (12)
*New Jersey (14)
*Connecticut (7)
*New Mexico (5)
*Maine (4 - Maine divides its electoral votes identically to Nebraska so there is potential for splitting there)
*Oregon (7)
*Minnesota (10)
*Michigan (16)
*Pennsylvania (20)
Assuming none of these states switch in the next couple weeks, that leaves us with Obama leading Romney 237-187 with 110 electoral votes outstanding. This means Romney will need to win 82 of these electoral votes to win the election. Obama only needs to win 33. If we have a tie at 269-269 (which is possible), Romney will win and the Electoral College will likely be done away with forever (can you imagine the controversy!?).
*North Carolina (15)
*Florida (29)
*Virginia (13)
*Colorado (9)
*New Hampshire (4)
*Iowa (6)
*Nevada (6)
*Wisconsin (10)
*Ohio (18)
If the Election were held today, I feel pretty confident that Romney would win North Carolina, Florida & Virginia. The others are very difficult to feel strongly about for either side. My gut tells me that Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa & New Hampshire are going to be difficult for Romney, but Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket may allow the GOP ticket to carry Wisconsin.
What this all comes to (once again) is that it is going to be quite difficult, though not impossible, for Romney to win the Electoral College without carrying Ohio. No Republican has won the Presidency without carrying Ohio since basically the birth of the GOP. Ohio is such an interesting state politically and I will analyze the state in greater depth in a future blog post.
Despite losing two electoral votes since the last election, Ohio is once again front and center in the battle for the White House.
Can Romney Win the Electoral College?
This is really the only question that matters with regard to the Presidential election, right? We can bask (or fret) over the latest national poll numbers. We can debate whether Gallup's likely voter model is flawed. In the end, what matters is whether Governor Romney or President Obama reaches 270 (or for Romney 269 because he would win the Presidency if a 269-269 electoral college tie resulted due to Republicans having control of more state congressional delegations) electoral votes.
If you had asked me this question prior to the first Presidential debate, I would have glumly told you that I didn't say a Romney path to victory. I felt that the American electorate had been blinded by Obama again and that the Romney campaign's difficulties had basically handed the President an undeserved second term. The first Presidential debate was truly the type of game-changing debate that we have not seen in American politics in recent years (maybe going back to Kennedy-Nixon 1960). The debate presented Governor Romney as a legitimate Presidential presence and dispelled many of the negative perceptions about Romney that the Obama campaign had allowed to form the election narrative for August & September.
This is not to say that we can all book our tickets to the Romney inauguration in January 2013. When we get into the nitty gritty state-by-state poll numbers this election is exceptionally close, but with momentum clearly in Romney's corner and (what I think will be the difference) a large enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. As is always the case in our electoral system, a close election will be decided by a handful of voters in several "swing" states. Because of this, I will spend significant time on this blog dissecting a few states and will basically ignore the remaining states.
What we know as of this writing is that several Obama 2008 states are clearly in Romney's corner this year such as Indiana and North Carolina. Recently polling data also seems to indicate that Virginia and Florida are looking more favorable to Romney than was initially anticipated pre-debates. That said, Romney cannot win the Electoral College without not only winning these four states, but also carrying some combination of Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Recent polling shows very close races in all of these states. The fact that Romney is now competitive in both Pennsylvania and Michigan is good news for the GOP as well. I don't expect either of these states to turn red, but if either does the election is over for Obama.
The bottom line is that this election is shaping up to be very similar to 2000 & 2004, elections where either party could have prevailed given a change in the preferences of a few thousand voters in a certain swing state (Florida 2000/Ohio 2004). One prediction I am comfortable making right now is that we will have a long night of election watching on November 6 before we know who will be President in 2013.
If you had asked me this question prior to the first Presidential debate, I would have glumly told you that I didn't say a Romney path to victory. I felt that the American electorate had been blinded by Obama again and that the Romney campaign's difficulties had basically handed the President an undeserved second term. The first Presidential debate was truly the type of game-changing debate that we have not seen in American politics in recent years (maybe going back to Kennedy-Nixon 1960). The debate presented Governor Romney as a legitimate Presidential presence and dispelled many of the negative perceptions about Romney that the Obama campaign had allowed to form the election narrative for August & September.
This is not to say that we can all book our tickets to the Romney inauguration in January 2013. When we get into the nitty gritty state-by-state poll numbers this election is exceptionally close, but with momentum clearly in Romney's corner and (what I think will be the difference) a large enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. As is always the case in our electoral system, a close election will be decided by a handful of voters in several "swing" states. Because of this, I will spend significant time on this blog dissecting a few states and will basically ignore the remaining states.
What we know as of this writing is that several Obama 2008 states are clearly in Romney's corner this year such as Indiana and North Carolina. Recently polling data also seems to indicate that Virginia and Florida are looking more favorable to Romney than was initially anticipated pre-debates. That said, Romney cannot win the Electoral College without not only winning these four states, but also carrying some combination of Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Recent polling shows very close races in all of these states. The fact that Romney is now competitive in both Pennsylvania and Michigan is good news for the GOP as well. I don't expect either of these states to turn red, but if either does the election is over for Obama.
The bottom line is that this election is shaping up to be very similar to 2000 & 2004, elections where either party could have prevailed given a change in the preferences of a few thousand voters in a certain swing state (Florida 2000/Ohio 2004). One prediction I am comfortable making right now is that we will have a long night of election watching on November 6 before we know who will be President in 2013.
Who Will Win the House in 2012?
While the Presidential election and Senate races get much of the press, there are 435 races for the U.S. House of Representatives taking place on November 6 as well. While the majority of these races are foregone conclusions at this point in time, 97 of the races are competitive or potentially competitive come Election Day.
According to my analysis using data from the Cook Political
Report (cookpolitical.com), the Rothenberg Political Report (rothenbergpoliticalreport.com), Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (centerforpolitics.org/crystalball), CQ Politics (cqpolitics.com), and Real Clear Politics (realclearpolitics.com) there are 186 seats in which the Republican candidate is virtually guaranteed to win the House election and 152 seats in which the Democrat candidate is virtually guaranteed to win. The current composition of the House is 240 Republicans, 190 Democrats, and 5 vacancies.
For Republicans to control the House of Representatives in 2013, they will need to win a minimum of 32 of the 97 competitive house seats. For the Democrats to control of the House in January they will need to win a minimum of 66 of the competitive house seats. For this reason, most experts believe that regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, the Republicans will have little difficulty holding on to control of the House.
Based on my current data analysis, Republicans are heavily favored to win 32 of these 97 competitive seats, which would mean that they would hang on to control of the House even if they only won these seats in which they currently have a strong advantage. Republicans have a slight edge in another 19 seats and 6 of the seats are absolute toss-ups. Democrats have a slight advantage in 20 seats and the a strong advantage in another 20 seats. This results in a very uphill climb for House Democrats to come anywhere near a House majority in the 113th Congress.
This analysis is not to say that Democrats cannot gain House seats on November 6; they can and probably will. Assuming Republicans win all seats in which they currently have an advantage, Democrats win all seats in which they currently have an advantage, and the absolute toss-ups are split equally the Republicans will enter the 113th Congress with 240 members and the Democrats will have 195 members. This would be a slight gain of 3 seats for the Democrats.
However, given the historic losses suffered by House Democrats in 2010, a "slight gain" is really a loss. Republicans, who won House elections in many places they had not won in many decades (or in some cases ever) should have been more vulnerable given the large number of freshmen incumbents in their ranks. Democrats, however, have been unable to make many elections competitive and in some cases shored up potentially weak incumbents through the redistricting process.
This election cycle has some added intrigue due to the fact that congressional districts have been reapportioned based on the 2010 census. This has resulted in a larger-than-normal amount of turnover in many state congressional delegations, but has not been a net gain to one party as Republican-led redistricting efforts in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and elsewhere have been offset by Democrat-led redistricting efforts in Illinois, California, Florida and a few other states.
In the days to come, I will take a look at some of the more interesting House races and analyze them in more detail as well as taking a look at the race for the Senate (spoiler alert: it doesn't look as good for the Republicans) and, of course, a look at the Presidential election.
According to my analysis using data from the Cook Political
Report (cookpolitical.com), the Rothenberg Political Report (rothenbergpoliticalreport.com), Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (centerforpolitics.org/crystalball), CQ Politics (cqpolitics.com), and Real Clear Politics (realclearpolitics.com) there are 186 seats in which the Republican candidate is virtually guaranteed to win the House election and 152 seats in which the Democrat candidate is virtually guaranteed to win. The current composition of the House is 240 Republicans, 190 Democrats, and 5 vacancies.
For Republicans to control the House of Representatives in 2013, they will need to win a minimum of 32 of the 97 competitive house seats. For the Democrats to control of the House in January they will need to win a minimum of 66 of the competitive house seats. For this reason, most experts believe that regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, the Republicans will have little difficulty holding on to control of the House.
Based on my current data analysis, Republicans are heavily favored to win 32 of these 97 competitive seats, which would mean that they would hang on to control of the House even if they only won these seats in which they currently have a strong advantage. Republicans have a slight edge in another 19 seats and 6 of the seats are absolute toss-ups. Democrats have a slight advantage in 20 seats and the a strong advantage in another 20 seats. This results in a very uphill climb for House Democrats to come anywhere near a House majority in the 113th Congress.
This analysis is not to say that Democrats cannot gain House seats on November 6; they can and probably will. Assuming Republicans win all seats in which they currently have an advantage, Democrats win all seats in which they currently have an advantage, and the absolute toss-ups are split equally the Republicans will enter the 113th Congress with 240 members and the Democrats will have 195 members. This would be a slight gain of 3 seats for the Democrats.
However, given the historic losses suffered by House Democrats in 2010, a "slight gain" is really a loss. Republicans, who won House elections in many places they had not won in many decades (or in some cases ever) should have been more vulnerable given the large number of freshmen incumbents in their ranks. Democrats, however, have been unable to make many elections competitive and in some cases shored up potentially weak incumbents through the redistricting process.
This election cycle has some added intrigue due to the fact that congressional districts have been reapportioned based on the 2010 census. This has resulted in a larger-than-normal amount of turnover in many state congressional delegations, but has not been a net gain to one party as Republican-led redistricting efforts in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and elsewhere have been offset by Democrat-led redistricting efforts in Illinois, California, Florida and a few other states.
In the days to come, I will take a look at some of the more interesting House races and analyze them in more detail as well as taking a look at the race for the Senate (spoiler alert: it doesn't look as good for the Republicans) and, of course, a look at the Presidential election.
2012 Election Update
Can you believe we are only 16 days away from the 2012 election? It has really come quickly in some ways...and extremely slowly in other ways. I am going to try to boost my blog content in the next couple of weeks as we reach the most critical days leading up to November 6.
There are a plethora of interesting Senate & House races that I have been following very closely as well as that little Presidential election that has been getting so much publicity! Hope you will check the site over the next couple of weeks.
There are a plethora of interesting Senate & House races that I have been following very closely as well as that little Presidential election that has been getting so much publicity! Hope you will check the site over the next couple of weeks.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
2012
I am planning to bring this blog back to life with full coverage of the 2012 elections. Look for more updates soon.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
How Many Seats Will GOP Gain in the House?
Virtually everyone agrees that the Republicans will gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 2. There is great disagreement over how many seats the Republicans will flip. Most Democrats publicly say that their party will lose seats, but will maintain their majority (lose less than 39 net seats). A majority of non-partisan political handicappers seem to think the GOP will gain between 35-45 seats. Some in the GOP are floating the idea that this could be a truly historic election, with Republicans gaining 60+ House seats.
I have broken down 100 competitive races based on their likelihood to flip from Democrat to Republican this year. The "Category 1" GOP wave contains seats that are almost certain to flip even if the GOP "wave" is more like a tiny ripple. The "Category 10" GOP wave contains seats that will flip only if this election is a truly historic victory for the Republicans.
Category 1 GOP Wave:
-Louisiana 3 (Open)
-New York 29 (Open)
-Tennessee 6 (Open)
-Arkansas 2 (Open)
-Indiana 8 (Open)
-Kansas 3 (Open)
-Colorado 4 (Markey)
-Florida 24 (Kosmas)
-Illinois 11 (Halvorson)
-Ohio 15 (Kilroy)
Category 2 GOP Wave:
-Texas 17 (Edwards)
-Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
-Maryland 1 (Kratovil)
-Ohio 1 (Driehaus)
-Tennessee 8 (Open)
-Michigan 1 (Open)
-Virginia 5 (Perriello)
-Washington 3 (Open)
-New Hampshire 2 (Open)
-Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski)
Category 3 GOP Wave:
-Pennsylvania 3 (Dahlkemper)
-Mississippi 1 (Childers)
-North Dakota At-Large (Pomeroy)
-New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)
-Virginia 2 (Nye)
-Arkansas 1 (Open)
-New Mexico 2 (Teague)
-Pennsylvania 7 (Open)
-Florida 8 (Grayson)
-Wisconsin 7 (Open)
Category 4 GOP Wave:
-Arizona 5 (Mitchell)
-Michigan 7 (Schauer)
-Ohio 16 (Boccieri)
-Florida 2 (Boyd)
-Nevada 3 (Titus)
-Indiana 9 (Hill)
-New York 24 (Arcuri)
-Pennsylvania 8 (Murphy)
-South Carolina 5 (Spratt)
-South Dakota At-Large (Herseth Sandlin)
Category 5 GOP Wave:
-West Virginia 1 (Open)
-Georgia 8 (Marshall)
-Illinois 14 (Foster)
-New York 19 (Hall)
-Pennsylvania 10 (Carney)
-North Carolina 8 (Kissell)
-Wisconsin 8 (Kagen)
-California 11 (McNerney)
-Alabama 2 (Bright)
-Arizona 8 (Giffords)
Category 6 GOP Wave:
-Colorado 3 (Salazar)
-Ohio 18 (Space)
-Iowa 3 (Boswell)
-Illinois 17 (Hare)
-Texas 23 (Rodriguez)
-Florida 22 (Klein)
-Massachusetts 10 (Open)
-Missouri 4 (Skelton)
-New Jersey 3 (Adler)
-New Mexico 1 (Heinrich)
Category 7 GOP Wave:
-New York 1 (Bishop)
-New York 23 (Owens)
-Ohio 13 (Sutton)
-Oregon 5 (Schrader)
-Virginia 9 (Boucher)
-Georgia 2 (Bishop)
-New York 20 (Murphy)
-Idaho 1 (Minnick)
-Pennsylvania 12 (Critz)
-Indiana 2 (Donnelly)
Category 8 GOP Wave:
-Kentucky 6 (Chandler)
-Virginia 11 (Connolly)
-California 47 (Sanchez)
-Michigan 9 (Peters)
-Tennessee 4 (Davis)
-Washington 2 (Larsen)
-New York 13 (McMahon)
-Connecticut 4 (Himes)
-North Carolina 11 (Shuler)
-North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
Category 9 GOP Wave:
-Wisconsin 3 (Kind)
-California 20 (Costa)
-West Virginia 3 (Rahall)
-Connecticut 5 (Murphy)
-Kentucky 3 (Yarmuth)
-New York 25 (Maffei)
-Pennsylvania 17 (Holden)
-Pennsylvania 4 (Altmire)
-Colorado 7 (Perlmutter)
-Iowa 2 (Loebsack)
Category 10 GOP Wave:
-Rhode Island 1 (Open)
-Minnesota 1 (Walz)
-California 18 (Cardoza)
-Illinois 8 (Bean)
-Mississippi 4 (Taylor)
-North Carolina 2 (Etheridge)
-Ohio 6 (Wilson)
-Iowa 1 (Braley)
-Maine 1 (Pingree)
-Maine 2 (Michaud)
Category 10++ GOP Wave:
-New Jersey 12 (Holt)
-Washington 9 (Smith)
-Oregon 1 (Wu)
-New Mexico 3 (Lujan)
-Arkansas 4 (Ross)
-Georgia 12 (Barrow)
-Massachusetts 5 (Tsongas)
-Missouri 3 (Carnahan)
-Utah 2 (Matheson)
-Massachusetts 4 (Frank)
-Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
-Michigan 15 (Dingell)
-Mississippi 2 (Thompson)
-North Carolina 4 (Price)
-New York 22 (Hinchey)
-New York 4 (McCarthy)
-Ohio 9 (Kaptur)
-Oklahoma 2 (Boren)
-Oregon 4 (DeFazio)
-Tennessee 5 (Cooper)
-Minnesota 8 (Oberstar)
I have broken down 100 competitive races based on their likelihood to flip from Democrat to Republican this year. The "Category 1" GOP wave contains seats that are almost certain to flip even if the GOP "wave" is more like a tiny ripple. The "Category 10" GOP wave contains seats that will flip only if this election is a truly historic victory for the Republicans.
Category 1 GOP Wave:
-Louisiana 3 (Open)
-New York 29 (Open)
-Tennessee 6 (Open)
-Arkansas 2 (Open)
-Indiana 8 (Open)
-Kansas 3 (Open)
-Colorado 4 (Markey)
-Florida 24 (Kosmas)
-Illinois 11 (Halvorson)
-Ohio 15 (Kilroy)
Category 2 GOP Wave:
-Texas 17 (Edwards)
-Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
-Maryland 1 (Kratovil)
-Ohio 1 (Driehaus)
-Tennessee 8 (Open)
-Michigan 1 (Open)
-Virginia 5 (Perriello)
-Washington 3 (Open)
-New Hampshire 2 (Open)
-Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski)
Category 3 GOP Wave:
-Pennsylvania 3 (Dahlkemper)
-Mississippi 1 (Childers)
-North Dakota At-Large (Pomeroy)
-New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)
-Virginia 2 (Nye)
-Arkansas 1 (Open)
-New Mexico 2 (Teague)
-Pennsylvania 7 (Open)
-Florida 8 (Grayson)
-Wisconsin 7 (Open)
Category 4 GOP Wave:
-Arizona 5 (Mitchell)
-Michigan 7 (Schauer)
-Ohio 16 (Boccieri)
-Florida 2 (Boyd)
-Nevada 3 (Titus)
-Indiana 9 (Hill)
-New York 24 (Arcuri)
-Pennsylvania 8 (Murphy)
-South Carolina 5 (Spratt)
-South Dakota At-Large (Herseth Sandlin)
Category 5 GOP Wave:
-West Virginia 1 (Open)
-Georgia 8 (Marshall)
-Illinois 14 (Foster)
-New York 19 (Hall)
-Pennsylvania 10 (Carney)
-North Carolina 8 (Kissell)
-Wisconsin 8 (Kagen)
-California 11 (McNerney)
-Alabama 2 (Bright)
-Arizona 8 (Giffords)
Category 6 GOP Wave:
-Colorado 3 (Salazar)
-Ohio 18 (Space)
-Iowa 3 (Boswell)
-Illinois 17 (Hare)
-Texas 23 (Rodriguez)
-Florida 22 (Klein)
-Massachusetts 10 (Open)
-Missouri 4 (Skelton)
-New Jersey 3 (Adler)
-New Mexico 1 (Heinrich)
Category 7 GOP Wave:
-New York 1 (Bishop)
-New York 23 (Owens)
-Ohio 13 (Sutton)
-Oregon 5 (Schrader)
-Virginia 9 (Boucher)
-Georgia 2 (Bishop)
-New York 20 (Murphy)
-Idaho 1 (Minnick)
-Pennsylvania 12 (Critz)
-Indiana 2 (Donnelly)
Category 8 GOP Wave:
-Kentucky 6 (Chandler)
-Virginia 11 (Connolly)
-California 47 (Sanchez)
-Michigan 9 (Peters)
-Tennessee 4 (Davis)
-Washington 2 (Larsen)
-New York 13 (McMahon)
-Connecticut 4 (Himes)
-North Carolina 11 (Shuler)
-North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
Category 9 GOP Wave:
-Wisconsin 3 (Kind)
-California 20 (Costa)
-West Virginia 3 (Rahall)
-Connecticut 5 (Murphy)
-Kentucky 3 (Yarmuth)
-New York 25 (Maffei)
-Pennsylvania 17 (Holden)
-Pennsylvania 4 (Altmire)
-Colorado 7 (Perlmutter)
-Iowa 2 (Loebsack)
Category 10 GOP Wave:
-Rhode Island 1 (Open)
-Minnesota 1 (Walz)
-California 18 (Cardoza)
-Illinois 8 (Bean)
-Mississippi 4 (Taylor)
-North Carolina 2 (Etheridge)
-Ohio 6 (Wilson)
-Iowa 1 (Braley)
-Maine 1 (Pingree)
-Maine 2 (Michaud)
Category 10++ GOP Wave:
-New Jersey 12 (Holt)
-Washington 9 (Smith)
-Oregon 1 (Wu)
-New Mexico 3 (Lujan)
-Arkansas 4 (Ross)
-Georgia 12 (Barrow)
-Massachusetts 5 (Tsongas)
-Missouri 3 (Carnahan)
-Utah 2 (Matheson)
-Massachusetts 4 (Frank)
-Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
-Michigan 15 (Dingell)
-Mississippi 2 (Thompson)
-North Carolina 4 (Price)
-New York 22 (Hinchey)
-New York 4 (McCarthy)
-Ohio 9 (Kaptur)
-Oklahoma 2 (Boren)
-Oregon 4 (DeFazio)
-Tennessee 5 (Cooper)
-Minnesota 8 (Oberstar)
Saturday, September 18, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Louisiana 3rd District
The Republicans are eyeing an open Southeast Louisiana district as an excellent pick-up opportunity this November.
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district takes in the southeast quarter of the state. This is a swampy area where most of the roads have to be built on stilts to make them navigable. The 3rd takes in much of southern Louisiana's Cajun population, with their distinctive accents and unique cultural traditions. The area also includes metro New Orleans suburbs in St. Bernard Parish.
The first decade of the 21st century has not been kind to this part of the country. Much of the 3rd district was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina and it is struggling to recover economically. The 3rd has declined in population by nearly 3% since 2000. The BP oil spill and the Obama administration's subsequent halt to offshore oil drilling further hampered economic prospects in the 3rd.
The district is ancestrally favorable to conservative Democrats, but the district does not react favorably to present-day national Democrats. John McCain carried the district by a decisive 61%-37% margin in 2008. It is widely expected that if Louisiana loses a congressional district after the 2010 census (as it almost certainly will due to population exodus following Katrina), the 3rd will be carved up and split among neighboring districts. The 2nd district, which has declined in population by almost 30%, is unlikely to be eliminated due to it being the state's lone black-majority district.
The Congressman from the 3rd district is moderate Democrat Charlie Melancon. Melancon has represented the 3rd since 2004, when he won the seat of powerful Democrat-turned-Republican Billy Tauzin by defeating Tauzin's son among others. Melancon is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative-to-moderate House Democrats. In August 2009, Melancon announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. He easily secured the Democratic nomination but is an underdog in his bid to unseat Republican Senator David Vitter in November.
Melancon's decision to run for the Senate created a big opening for Republicans to pick up this seat. The early GOP frontrunner was former Louisiana House Speaker Hunt Downer. Downer, who had been a Democrat for most of his political career, came under withering attack from the right for his past party affiliation and, probably more damning in this district, a lifelong politician. Conservatives and tea party activists rallied behind New Iberia Businessman and Army Veteran Jeff Landry. In the August primary election, Landry won a divisive victory earning 49% of the vote in a three-way primary. Downer finished a distant second, but still advanced to the October 2 runoff election since no candidate reached the 50% threshold.
Since the primary, the Louisiana Republican Party has thrown its full support behind Landry and the third-place candidate in the primary has wholeheartedly endorsed Landry. Downer has been pressured to bow out of the race, but has yet to do so. Landry is looking more and more like he will emerge as the GOP nominee and he has begun to focus much of his energies on the general election.
Democrats struggled to find a nominee to fill Melancon's shoes. The only Democrat to run was Houma Attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Sangisetty, like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, is of Indian descent. Sangisetty has failed to fundraise on par with Landry and he will be a heavy underdog against either Landry or Downer in November.
Republicans are virtually locked in to pick up this district. Landry is a good bet to advance to the November general election and he seems poised to take this conservative-oriented seat. His win should offset the expected loss of GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in the neighboring 2nd district, who was elected in a heavily Democratic district over a scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent in 2008.
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district takes in the southeast quarter of the state. This is a swampy area where most of the roads have to be built on stilts to make them navigable. The 3rd takes in much of southern Louisiana's Cajun population, with their distinctive accents and unique cultural traditions. The area also includes metro New Orleans suburbs in St. Bernard Parish.
The first decade of the 21st century has not been kind to this part of the country. Much of the 3rd district was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina and it is struggling to recover economically. The 3rd has declined in population by nearly 3% since 2000. The BP oil spill and the Obama administration's subsequent halt to offshore oil drilling further hampered economic prospects in the 3rd.
The district is ancestrally favorable to conservative Democrats, but the district does not react favorably to present-day national Democrats. John McCain carried the district by a decisive 61%-37% margin in 2008. It is widely expected that if Louisiana loses a congressional district after the 2010 census (as it almost certainly will due to population exodus following Katrina), the 3rd will be carved up and split among neighboring districts. The 2nd district, which has declined in population by almost 30%, is unlikely to be eliminated due to it being the state's lone black-majority district.
The Congressman from the 3rd district is moderate Democrat Charlie Melancon. Melancon has represented the 3rd since 2004, when he won the seat of powerful Democrat-turned-Republican Billy Tauzin by defeating Tauzin's son among others. Melancon is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative-to-moderate House Democrats. In August 2009, Melancon announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. He easily secured the Democratic nomination but is an underdog in his bid to unseat Republican Senator David Vitter in November.
Melancon's decision to run for the Senate created a big opening for Republicans to pick up this seat. The early GOP frontrunner was former Louisiana House Speaker Hunt Downer. Downer, who had been a Democrat for most of his political career, came under withering attack from the right for his past party affiliation and, probably more damning in this district, a lifelong politician. Conservatives and tea party activists rallied behind New Iberia Businessman and Army Veteran Jeff Landry. In the August primary election, Landry won a divisive victory earning 49% of the vote in a three-way primary. Downer finished a distant second, but still advanced to the October 2 runoff election since no candidate reached the 50% threshold.
Since the primary, the Louisiana Republican Party has thrown its full support behind Landry and the third-place candidate in the primary has wholeheartedly endorsed Landry. Downer has been pressured to bow out of the race, but has yet to do so. Landry is looking more and more like he will emerge as the GOP nominee and he has begun to focus much of his energies on the general election.
Democrats struggled to find a nominee to fill Melancon's shoes. The only Democrat to run was Houma Attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Sangisetty, like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, is of Indian descent. Sangisetty has failed to fundraise on par with Landry and he will be a heavy underdog against either Landry or Downer in November.
Republicans are virtually locked in to pick up this district. Landry is a good bet to advance to the November general election and he seems poised to take this conservative-oriented seat. His win should offset the expected loss of GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in the neighboring 2nd district, who was elected in a heavily Democratic district over a scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent in 2008.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Maryland 1st District
A vulnerable member of the Democrat Freshman class faces a tough re-election battle in a heavily Republican district.
Maryland's 1st congressional district contains all of Maryland's legendary Eastern Shore. These long-settled farming and tourism dependent counties, separated from the rest of Maryland by the Chesapeake Bay, have long valued their uniqueness. As recently as 1998, a resolution was debated in the Maryland Assembly to grant the Eastern Shore independence from the rest of Maryland and to allow it to seek separate statehood. The 1st also reaches across the Bay into heavily Republican suburbs north of Baltimore.
The 1st was designed by Democratic redistricters to be heavily Republican so as to allow other Maryland districts to elect Democrats. The Eastern Shore has long favored Republicans, despite the fact that most of its counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even as Barack Obama won a decisive 26% victory in Maryland, he lost the 1st overwhelmingly 59%-40%.
The huge GOP advantage in the 1st made the 2008 election of Democrat Frank Kratovil all the more surprising. Kratovil benefitted immensely from a long-standing split between moderate and conservative Republicans in the 1st to squeak to victory two years ago. In the 2008 GOP primary, conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated 18-year incumbent Wayne Gilchrest 43%-33%. Harris repeatedly hammered Gilchrest for his moderate stands on national defense and economic issues.
Gilchrest refused to concede to Harris and effectively opened the door for a Kratovil win. Harris outraised Kratovil, but the DCCC spent over $2 million on Kratovil's behalf, effectively eliminating any financial advantage Harris had. Kratovil campaigned as a moderate and narrowly won 49%-48%.
In his first term, Kratovil has hued to the center of the House. He was one of 11 Democrats to oppose Obama's economic stimulus plan (he later supported the final Senate version) and he voted against the White House's Health Care package. Kratovil supported the controversial cap and trade legislation.
In March 2009, Harris announced that he would challenge Kratovil in 2010. Moderate businessman Rob Fisher also ran in the September GOP primary. Fisher outspent Harris and received the endorsement of Gilchrest, but Harris cruised to an easy 2-to-1 victory.
The Kratovil-Harris rematch promises to be one of the GOP's best chances to knock off a Democratic incumbent. The 1st is heavily Republican and although the moderate-conservative divide still exists, the wounds of 2008 are not nearly so fresh in 2010. Additionally, Kratovil now has to run as an incumbent and his national party leaders are very unpopular in the 1st. Harris is one of the most well-funded GOP challengers this cycle and he will be able to spend on par with the incumbent. Harris can also probably count on the support of the anti-tax group Club for Growth, which helped him upend Gilchrest in 2008.
Both candidates are well-known in the 1st after the bruising 2008 campaign. Given Kratovil's narrow margin of victory and the Republican's anticipated strength this year, expect Harris to win this go around.
Maryland's 1st congressional district contains all of Maryland's legendary Eastern Shore. These long-settled farming and tourism dependent counties, separated from the rest of Maryland by the Chesapeake Bay, have long valued their uniqueness. As recently as 1998, a resolution was debated in the Maryland Assembly to grant the Eastern Shore independence from the rest of Maryland and to allow it to seek separate statehood. The 1st also reaches across the Bay into heavily Republican suburbs north of Baltimore.
The 1st was designed by Democratic redistricters to be heavily Republican so as to allow other Maryland districts to elect Democrats. The Eastern Shore has long favored Republicans, despite the fact that most of its counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even as Barack Obama won a decisive 26% victory in Maryland, he lost the 1st overwhelmingly 59%-40%.
The huge GOP advantage in the 1st made the 2008 election of Democrat Frank Kratovil all the more surprising. Kratovil benefitted immensely from a long-standing split between moderate and conservative Republicans in the 1st to squeak to victory two years ago. In the 2008 GOP primary, conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated 18-year incumbent Wayne Gilchrest 43%-33%. Harris repeatedly hammered Gilchrest for his moderate stands on national defense and economic issues.
Gilchrest refused to concede to Harris and effectively opened the door for a Kratovil win. Harris outraised Kratovil, but the DCCC spent over $2 million on Kratovil's behalf, effectively eliminating any financial advantage Harris had. Kratovil campaigned as a moderate and narrowly won 49%-48%.
In his first term, Kratovil has hued to the center of the House. He was one of 11 Democrats to oppose Obama's economic stimulus plan (he later supported the final Senate version) and he voted against the White House's Health Care package. Kratovil supported the controversial cap and trade legislation.
In March 2009, Harris announced that he would challenge Kratovil in 2010. Moderate businessman Rob Fisher also ran in the September GOP primary. Fisher outspent Harris and received the endorsement of Gilchrest, but Harris cruised to an easy 2-to-1 victory.
The Kratovil-Harris rematch promises to be one of the GOP's best chances to knock off a Democratic incumbent. The 1st is heavily Republican and although the moderate-conservative divide still exists, the wounds of 2008 are not nearly so fresh in 2010. Additionally, Kratovil now has to run as an incumbent and his national party leaders are very unpopular in the 1st. Harris is one of the most well-funded GOP challengers this cycle and he will be able to spend on par with the incumbent. Harris can also probably count on the support of the anti-tax group Club for Growth, which helped him upend Gilchrest in 2008.
Both candidates are well-known in the 1st after the bruising 2008 campaign. Given Kratovil's narrow margin of victory and the Republican's anticipated strength this year, expect Harris to win this go around.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - New York 29th District
One of the GOP's best pick-up opportunities in November will be in this southern New York open seat contest.
New York's 29th district is a backward L-shaped district that ranges from the southern suburbs of Rochester near Lake Ontario in the north to New York's border with Pennsylvania on the south. The district includes Elmira, Pittsford, Corning, and Olean. The district is dotted with small towns and is a world apart from New York City. This district, like much of Upstate New York, has not experienced much, if any, population growth in recent decades.
The small town feel of this district, coupled with the historical preference for Republicans in Upstate have made this district Republican. The 29th gave George W. Bush a hefty 14% victory in 2004 and while Barack Obama carried much of Upstate in 2008 he lost the 29th by 3%.
The Democratic wave of 2008 was enough to allow Democrat Eric Massa to defeat two-term incumbent Randy Kuhl in the 29th. Massa, a Navy veteran who had served as General Wesley Clark's special assistant, ran as a centrist and defeated Kuhl by just over 5,000 votes.
Massa had a bumpy road from the start of his congressional career. First, he failed to win a coveted seat on the House Transportation Committee. He made controversial comments with regard to health care (stating at one point that he would vote against the interests of his district if necessary).
In October 2009, Massa announced that he would seek re-election to Congress. However, in February 2010, a senior member of Massa's staff filed sexual harassment complaints with the House Ethics Committee. In early March, Massa announced that he would not seek re-election, citing a recurrence of cancer. Two days later, Massa resigned his seat in Congress citing his health and the on-going ethics investigation.
Massa's odd behavior briefly made him a national celebrity. Allegations came forward that Massa had groped male staff members; Massa admitted to getting too familiar with his staff. Massa also made national headlines when he claimed a naked White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel bullied him for his failure to support the President's budget.
Compared to Massa's melodramatic exit from the House, the race to succeed him has been a quiet affair. Corning Attorney and Businessman Tom Reed secured the GOP nomination without competition. Reed is touting his outsider status and is running on a mostly conservative platform. Democrats scrambled to come up with a nominee in the aftermath of the Massa scandal. In the end, the Democrats nominated 28-year-old Afghanistan veteran Matt Zeller. Zeller is running as a fiscally conservative, military supporting Democrat.
Reed has raised considerably more money than Zeller. At the last reporting period, Zeller listed only $50,000 in the bank. National Democrats have not decided to target this race, virtually conceding this seat to the GOP. Reed should have no trouble flipping this seat in November.
New York's 29th district is a backward L-shaped district that ranges from the southern suburbs of Rochester near Lake Ontario in the north to New York's border with Pennsylvania on the south. The district includes Elmira, Pittsford, Corning, and Olean. The district is dotted with small towns and is a world apart from New York City. This district, like much of Upstate New York, has not experienced much, if any, population growth in recent decades.
The small town feel of this district, coupled with the historical preference for Republicans in Upstate have made this district Republican. The 29th gave George W. Bush a hefty 14% victory in 2004 and while Barack Obama carried much of Upstate in 2008 he lost the 29th by 3%.
The Democratic wave of 2008 was enough to allow Democrat Eric Massa to defeat two-term incumbent Randy Kuhl in the 29th. Massa, a Navy veteran who had served as General Wesley Clark's special assistant, ran as a centrist and defeated Kuhl by just over 5,000 votes.
Massa had a bumpy road from the start of his congressional career. First, he failed to win a coveted seat on the House Transportation Committee. He made controversial comments with regard to health care (stating at one point that he would vote against the interests of his district if necessary).
In October 2009, Massa announced that he would seek re-election to Congress. However, in February 2010, a senior member of Massa's staff filed sexual harassment complaints with the House Ethics Committee. In early March, Massa announced that he would not seek re-election, citing a recurrence of cancer. Two days later, Massa resigned his seat in Congress citing his health and the on-going ethics investigation.
Massa's odd behavior briefly made him a national celebrity. Allegations came forward that Massa had groped male staff members; Massa admitted to getting too familiar with his staff. Massa also made national headlines when he claimed a naked White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel bullied him for his failure to support the President's budget.
Compared to Massa's melodramatic exit from the House, the race to succeed him has been a quiet affair. Corning Attorney and Businessman Tom Reed secured the GOP nomination without competition. Reed is touting his outsider status and is running on a mostly conservative platform. Democrats scrambled to come up with a nominee in the aftermath of the Massa scandal. In the end, the Democrats nominated 28-year-old Afghanistan veteran Matt Zeller. Zeller is running as a fiscally conservative, military supporting Democrat.
Reed has raised considerably more money than Zeller. At the last reporting period, Zeller listed only $50,000 in the bank. National Democrats have not decided to target this race, virtually conceding this seat to the GOP. Reed should have no trouble flipping this seat in November.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Roadmap to a Republican-controlled House
My readers probably all know that Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to retake the House. The following if my roadmap, showing the races the GOP needs to win to take a majority. Open seats are in bold. Seats with a freshman incumbent are italicized. Seats with a sophomore incumbent are underlined.
Republicans must win at least 20 of the following Democratic-held seats where they are currently favored to win:
(1) NY-29
(2) TN-6
(3) AR-2
(4) LA-3
(5) KS-3
(6) IN-8
(7) MD-1
(8) NM-2
(9) OH-1
(10) OH-15
(11) CO-4
(12) FL-24
(13) MS-1
(14) ND-AL
(15) NH-1
(16) NH-2
(17) WA-3
(18) AR-1
(19) IL-11
(20) TN-8
(21) TX-17
(22) FL-8
(23) MI-1
(24) PA-11
(25) VA-5
Republicans need to win at least 20 of the following Democrat-held seats that are generally regarded as toss-ups:
(1) MI-7
(2) OH-16
(3) PA-7
(4) WI-7
(5) FL-2
(6) NV-3
(7) NY-24
(8) VA-2
(9) IN-9
(10) SC-5
(11) WV-1
(12) IL-14
(13) SD-AL
(14) PA-3
(15) NC-8
(16) AZ-1
(17) AL-2
(18) AZ-5
(19) CA-11
(20) GA-8
(21) NY-19
(22) PA-10
(23) PA-8
(24) AZ-8
(25) IA-3
Depending on their success in securing the above seats, the Republicans will probably need to win 5-10 of the following Democrat-held seats where the Democrat is currently the favorite.
(1) OH-18
(2) TX-23
(3) WI-8
(4) ID-1
(5) MO-4
(6) NM-1
(7) OH-13
(8) VA-9
(9) CO-3
(10) MA-10
(11) NY-1
(12) NY-20
(13) NY-23
(14) OR-5
(15) PA-12
(16) IN-2
(17) KY-6
(18) NJ-3
(19) FL-22
(20) VA-11
(21) TN-4
(22) NY-13
(23) IL-17
(24) NC-11
(25) WA-2
Republicans probably won't need to win any of the following Democrat-held seats to secure a House majority, but any wins in this group will mean a GOP wave has developed.
(1) MI-9
(2) CA-47
(3) CT-4
(4) GA-2
(5) KY-3
(6) NY-25
(7) PA-17
(8) PA-4
(9) CO-7
(10) CT-5
(11) WI-3
(12) WV-3
(13) CA-18
(14) IL-8
(15) NC-2
(16) MN-1
(17) RI-1
(18) CA-20
(19) NJ-12
(20) NC-7
(21) OR-1
(22) ME-1
(23) ME-2
(24) AR-4
(25) GA-12
Republicans are expected to lose 3-4 GOP-held seats, obviously if Republican candidates pull off these races, it will decrease the number of Democrat-held seats the GOP must pick up. The Republican-held seats in jeopardy are the following:
(1) LA-2
(2) DE-AL
(3) HI-1
(4) IL-10
Republicans must win at least 20 of the following Democratic-held seats where they are currently favored to win:
(1) NY-29
(2) TN-6
(3) AR-2
(4) LA-3
(5) KS-3
(6) IN-8
(7) MD-1
(8) NM-2
(9) OH-1
(10) OH-15
(11) CO-4
(12) FL-24
(13) MS-1
(14) ND-AL
(15) NH-1
(16) NH-2
(17) WA-3
(18) AR-1
(19) IL-11
(20) TN-8
(21) TX-17
(22) FL-8
(23) MI-1
(24) PA-11
(25) VA-5
Republicans need to win at least 20 of the following Democrat-held seats that are generally regarded as toss-ups:
(1) MI-7
(2) OH-16
(3) PA-7
(4) WI-7
(5) FL-2
(6) NV-3
(7) NY-24
(8) VA-2
(9) IN-9
(10) SC-5
(11) WV-1
(12) IL-14
(13) SD-AL
(14) PA-3
(15) NC-8
(16) AZ-1
(17) AL-2
(18) AZ-5
(19) CA-11
(20) GA-8
(21) NY-19
(22) PA-10
(23) PA-8
(24) AZ-8
(25) IA-3
Depending on their success in securing the above seats, the Republicans will probably need to win 5-10 of the following Democrat-held seats where the Democrat is currently the favorite.
(1) OH-18
(2) TX-23
(3) WI-8
(4) ID-1
(5) MO-4
(6) NM-1
(7) OH-13
(8) VA-9
(9) CO-3
(10) MA-10
(11) NY-1
(12) NY-20
(13) NY-23
(14) OR-5
(15) PA-12
(16) IN-2
(17) KY-6
(18) NJ-3
(19) FL-22
(20) VA-11
(21) TN-4
(22) NY-13
(23) IL-17
(24) NC-11
(25) WA-2
Republicans probably won't need to win any of the following Democrat-held seats to secure a House majority, but any wins in this group will mean a GOP wave has developed.
(1) MI-9
(2) CA-47
(3) CT-4
(4) GA-2
(5) KY-3
(6) NY-25
(7) PA-17
(8) PA-4
(9) CO-7
(10) CT-5
(11) WI-3
(12) WV-3
(13) CA-18
(14) IL-8
(15) NC-2
(16) MN-1
(17) RI-1
(18) CA-20
(19) NJ-12
(20) NC-7
(21) OR-1
(22) ME-1
(23) ME-2
(24) AR-4
(25) GA-12
Republicans are expected to lose 3-4 GOP-held seats, obviously if Republican candidates pull off these races, it will decrease the number of Democrat-held seats the GOP must pick up. The Republican-held seats in jeopardy are the following:
(1) LA-2
(2) DE-AL
(3) HI-1
(4) IL-10
Fire Thomas S. Ross
The Delaware Republican Party is completely at fault if Christine O'Donnell loses the U.S. Senate race in November. Below you will find the e-mail I sent to the Delaware Republican Party expressing my sincere disappointment over how they attempted to personally destroy O'Donnell to bolster the candidacy of liberal Mike Castle. Thomas S. Ross is the Chairman of the Delaware Republican Party.
The Delaware GOP establishment pulled out all the stops to get Castle the nomination, including making unfounded and personal attacks against a member of their own party! This disgusts me and if you share my feelings on how reprehensibly the Delaware GOP handled this situation you can e-mail the party at info@delawaregop.com.
My Open Letter to the Delaware Republican Party:
To Whom It May Concern:
The Delaware GOP establishment pulled out all the stops to get Castle the nomination, including making unfounded and personal attacks against a member of their own party! This disgusts me and if you share my feelings on how reprehensibly the Delaware GOP handled this situation you can e-mail the party at info@delawaregop.com.
My Open Letter to the Delaware Republican Party:
To Whom It May Concern:
This lifelong Republican is thoroughly disgusted by the conduct of the Delaware Republican Party during this primary season. Your full-throated attacks on a member of your own party were disgusting and have now completely jeopardized your party's chances to win the U.S. Senate seat in November.
The Delaware Republican Party's endorsements were clearly out of step with the majority of your own party. Your two endorsed candidates in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races were both defeated. This says something very damning about how out of touch the Delaware Republican Party is with its own primary voters.
Make no mistake, if either the U.S. Senate seat or the U.S. House seat in Delaware is lost by Republicans in November (most analysts now think both will be), the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the Delaware Republican Party. There was no need for a state party to endorse candidates prior to the party primary. To make personal attacks against a candidate in your party's primary is completely inexcusable.
It is my hope that Delaware Republicans will make some serious changes to this out-of-touch, entrenched state party.
Sincerely,
Nathan Wright
O'Donnell, Ayotte, and the Power of Palin
If there has been anything we have learned during the 2010 primary season it is that conservatives are angry, energized, and fighting for control of the Republican Party.
When the "Tea Party" began its ascendency, many in the media predicted that these conservatives would form a third party siphoning off votes from the GOP, leading to Democratic wins in closely contested elections. For the most part, Tea Party groups have taken a different tack: confronting "establishment" or "mainstream" Republican candidates in a handful of crucial primaries, particularly in U.S. Senate races throughout the country.
The Tea Party can claim some credit for conservative GOP primary upsets in U.S. Senate races in Kentucky, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and last night in Delaware. The movement can also claim credit for upsets in the New York Gubernatorial primary, and in House races throughout the country.
Perhaps the most visible leader of the Tea Party movement is 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin. Palin, whose brief foray onto the national stage in the 2008 election season made her a favorite of conservatives and drew the ire of liberals, has proven to be a powerhouse during the primary election season. The former Alaska governor, utilizing social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, has endorsed conservative, usually tea-party backed, Republican candidates in races across the country.
Palin's endorsement record started out strong, waned slightly over the summer, and then helped account for two of the biggest upsets in recent political history. First, Palin waded back into Alaska politics by endorsing conservative attorney Joe Miller in his bid to unseat moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski. Miller was the heavy underdog until Election Day, when he ousted Murkowski. Then, Palin endorsed conservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Senate primary. Last night O'Donnell shocked long-time congressman and former Delaware Governor Mike Castle, who is one of the most liberal GOP members of the Congress.
Palin also waded into the contested New Hampshire Senate primary by backing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. This endorsement actually put Palin at odds with many in the tea party movement who preferred Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte appears to have narrowly won the primary, largely due to Palin's endorsement.
The 2010 primary season ends as one of the most unique and entertaining primary seasons in recent memory. In some cases, like in the Delaware Senate race, by veering to the right Republicans probably nominated a candidate who is less likely to win in November. The question to ask yourself is whether this is a bad thing. I think not. If it takes liberal Republicans like Mike Castle to take back Congress, I would rather the Democrats just stay in power. I would rather the Republican Party lose with a conservative on the ballot than win with a liberal on the GOP line.
When the "Tea Party" began its ascendency, many in the media predicted that these conservatives would form a third party siphoning off votes from the GOP, leading to Democratic wins in closely contested elections. For the most part, Tea Party groups have taken a different tack: confronting "establishment" or "mainstream" Republican candidates in a handful of crucial primaries, particularly in U.S. Senate races throughout the country.
The Tea Party can claim some credit for conservative GOP primary upsets in U.S. Senate races in Kentucky, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and last night in Delaware. The movement can also claim credit for upsets in the New York Gubernatorial primary, and in House races throughout the country.
Perhaps the most visible leader of the Tea Party movement is 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin. Palin, whose brief foray onto the national stage in the 2008 election season made her a favorite of conservatives and drew the ire of liberals, has proven to be a powerhouse during the primary election season. The former Alaska governor, utilizing social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, has endorsed conservative, usually tea-party backed, Republican candidates in races across the country.
Palin's endorsement record started out strong, waned slightly over the summer, and then helped account for two of the biggest upsets in recent political history. First, Palin waded back into Alaska politics by endorsing conservative attorney Joe Miller in his bid to unseat moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski. Miller was the heavy underdog until Election Day, when he ousted Murkowski. Then, Palin endorsed conservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Senate primary. Last night O'Donnell shocked long-time congressman and former Delaware Governor Mike Castle, who is one of the most liberal GOP members of the Congress.
Palin also waded into the contested New Hampshire Senate primary by backing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. This endorsement actually put Palin at odds with many in the tea party movement who preferred Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte appears to have narrowly won the primary, largely due to Palin's endorsement.
The 2010 primary season ends as one of the most unique and entertaining primary seasons in recent memory. In some cases, like in the Delaware Senate race, by veering to the right Republicans probably nominated a candidate who is less likely to win in November. The question to ask yourself is whether this is a bad thing. I think not. If it takes liberal Republicans like Mike Castle to take back Congress, I would rather the Democrats just stay in power. I would rather the Republican Party lose with a conservative on the ballot than win with a liberal on the GOP line.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
September 14 Primaries
Tomorrow is the virtual culmination of 2010 primary season (Hawaii holds its primaries Saturday and Louisiana has some run-off elections scheduled for October 2). New York, New Hampshire, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and Maryland will all hold primary elections to decide the Republican and Democrat nominees in hotly contested races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and Governorships.
This primary-by-primary look will give you an idea of what is at stake tomorrow night and how each of these races fits into November's political landscape.
Governors' Races
(1) Wisconsin Governor - Republican
Conservative Ex-Congressman Mark Neumann and more centrist Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are the top two GOP candidates. They are vying for the right to face Milwaukee Mayor and Ex-Congressman Tom Barrett, who has only token opposition in his primary. Either GOP candidate will enter the general as a very slight favorite in what is sure to be one of the closest gubernatorial races this year.
(2) New Hampshire Governor - Republican
Four GOP candidates are sparring for the right to oppose Democrat Governor John Lynch. Former New Hampshire HHS official and two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate John Stephen recently snagged the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph. Also in the race are State Rep. Frank Emiro, Businessman Jack Kimball, and Religious Right Activist Karen Testerman. Whoever emerges from this four-way primary will face a very steep uphill battle to unseat the popular Lynch.
(3) New York Governor - Republican
The GOP establishment has lined up behind former Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Lazio. However, recent polls have showed tea party favorite Carl Paladino surging. Paladino has trumpeted his outsider status and has vowed to take a sledgehammer to the burgeoning Empire State budget if elected. Neither Lazio nor Paladino have much of a shot at the Governor's Mansion, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be the overwhelming favorite in November.
(4) Rhode Island Governor - Republican
Businessman and former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille is expected to secure the GOP nomination against ex-State Representative Victor Moffitt, although anything is possible in what is sure to be a very light turnout among the Bay State's slim number of Republican voters. The winner will face a tough three-way race against Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee. In a twist that could only happen in a place like Rhode Island, Caprio is widely viewed as the most conservative candidate in the race and Chafee as the most liberal. It will be up to the GOP nominee to attempt to chart a centrist course and somehow garner the 35%-40% that will likely be necessary for the win.
House Races
(1) Maryland 1st District - Republican
Moderates, including former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, have lined up behind IT Consultant and Army Veteran Rob Fisher. Fisher has spent freely, but the favorite here is conservative State Senator Andy Harris. Harris defeated Gilchrest in the GOP primary in 2008, but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil. This is a prime GOP pick-up opportunity in November regardless of which nominee emerges.
(2) New Hampshire 1st District - Republican
A crowded field of 8 GOP candidates are running for the right to face two-term Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who won a surprising election in 2006. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has raised the most money and has the benefit of high name recognition in one the district's largest cities. Businessman Sean Mahoney has spent freely from his own funds. Defense contractor Rich Ashooh has also been competitive. The winner of the primary will enter the general election campaign slightly favored to oust Shea-Porter in November.
(3) New Hampshire 2nd District - Republican
Moderate ex-Congressman Charlie Bass is the favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee in the 2nd. Several candidates, including ex-State Rep. Bob Guida and Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, are running to Bass' right, but the former Congressman's superior fundraising and name recognition should allow him to win the nomination. If Bass does win, he will be favored to retake this open seat.
(4) New Hampshire 2nd District - Democrat
The Democrat primary in this open seat that has been vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes has grown increasingly nasty. Attacks have flown between the camps of attorney Ann McLane Kuster and Political Consultant Katrina Swett to the extent that the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party begged both sides for a ceasefire. The winner of the primary will face a tough campaign to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
(5) Wisconsin 7th District - Republican
District Attorney and former Real World houseguest Sean Duffy has emerged as the overall favorite to take this seat, which has been held for over 40 years by retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey. Duffy will first have to get past the Republican primary, where he is being challenged by 2008 GOP nominee Dan Mielke. Expect Duffy to cruise to an easy victory here. He will be a candidate to watch in November.
(6) Wisconsin 7th District - Democrat
State Senator Julie Lassa is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She faces Realtor Don Raihala in the primary, but her real challenge will be the general election against presumptive GOP nominee Duffy.
(7) New York 19th District - Republican
Conservative ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is the favorite to win the GOP nomination to oppose vulnerable Democratic Rep. John Hall in November. Hayworth is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party Activist Neil DiCarlo. Hayworth has spent freely and should have little trouble securing the GOP nod. The GOP nominee will start out as the underdog, but virtually everyone realizes that Hall is vulnerable.
Sorry to cut this article short, but life intervened and I wasn't able to discuss every important primary before watching the election returns tonight!
This primary-by-primary look will give you an idea of what is at stake tomorrow night and how each of these races fits into November's political landscape.
Governors' Races
(1) Wisconsin Governor - Republican
Conservative Ex-Congressman Mark Neumann and more centrist Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are the top two GOP candidates. They are vying for the right to face Milwaukee Mayor and Ex-Congressman Tom Barrett, who has only token opposition in his primary. Either GOP candidate will enter the general as a very slight favorite in what is sure to be one of the closest gubernatorial races this year.
(2) New Hampshire Governor - Republican
Four GOP candidates are sparring for the right to oppose Democrat Governor John Lynch. Former New Hampshire HHS official and two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate John Stephen recently snagged the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph. Also in the race are State Rep. Frank Emiro, Businessman Jack Kimball, and Religious Right Activist Karen Testerman. Whoever emerges from this four-way primary will face a very steep uphill battle to unseat the popular Lynch.
(3) New York Governor - Republican
The GOP establishment has lined up behind former Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Lazio. However, recent polls have showed tea party favorite Carl Paladino surging. Paladino has trumpeted his outsider status and has vowed to take a sledgehammer to the burgeoning Empire State budget if elected. Neither Lazio nor Paladino have much of a shot at the Governor's Mansion, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be the overwhelming favorite in November.
(4) Rhode Island Governor - Republican
Businessman and former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille is expected to secure the GOP nomination against ex-State Representative Victor Moffitt, although anything is possible in what is sure to be a very light turnout among the Bay State's slim number of Republican voters. The winner will face a tough three-way race against Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee. In a twist that could only happen in a place like Rhode Island, Caprio is widely viewed as the most conservative candidate in the race and Chafee as the most liberal. It will be up to the GOP nominee to attempt to chart a centrist course and somehow garner the 35%-40% that will likely be necessary for the win.
House Races
(1) Maryland 1st District - Republican
Moderates, including former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, have lined up behind IT Consultant and Army Veteran Rob Fisher. Fisher has spent freely, but the favorite here is conservative State Senator Andy Harris. Harris defeated Gilchrest in the GOP primary in 2008, but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil. This is a prime GOP pick-up opportunity in November regardless of which nominee emerges.
(2) New Hampshire 1st District - Republican
A crowded field of 8 GOP candidates are running for the right to face two-term Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who won a surprising election in 2006. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has raised the most money and has the benefit of high name recognition in one the district's largest cities. Businessman Sean Mahoney has spent freely from his own funds. Defense contractor Rich Ashooh has also been competitive. The winner of the primary will enter the general election campaign slightly favored to oust Shea-Porter in November.
(3) New Hampshire 2nd District - Republican
Moderate ex-Congressman Charlie Bass is the favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee in the 2nd. Several candidates, including ex-State Rep. Bob Guida and Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, are running to Bass' right, but the former Congressman's superior fundraising and name recognition should allow him to win the nomination. If Bass does win, he will be favored to retake this open seat.
(4) New Hampshire 2nd District - Democrat
The Democrat primary in this open seat that has been vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes has grown increasingly nasty. Attacks have flown between the camps of attorney Ann McLane Kuster and Political Consultant Katrina Swett to the extent that the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party begged both sides for a ceasefire. The winner of the primary will face a tough campaign to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
(5) Wisconsin 7th District - Republican
District Attorney and former Real World houseguest Sean Duffy has emerged as the overall favorite to take this seat, which has been held for over 40 years by retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey. Duffy will first have to get past the Republican primary, where he is being challenged by 2008 GOP nominee Dan Mielke. Expect Duffy to cruise to an easy victory here. He will be a candidate to watch in November.
(6) Wisconsin 7th District - Democrat
State Senator Julie Lassa is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She faces Realtor Don Raihala in the primary, but her real challenge will be the general election against presumptive GOP nominee Duffy.
(7) New York 19th District - Republican
Conservative ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is the favorite to win the GOP nomination to oppose vulnerable Democratic Rep. John Hall in November. Hayworth is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party Activist Neil DiCarlo. Hayworth has spent freely and should have little trouble securing the GOP nod. The GOP nominee will start out as the underdog, but virtually everyone realizes that Hall is vulnerable.
Sorry to cut this article short, but life intervened and I wasn't able to discuss every important primary before watching the election returns tonight!
Monday, September 13, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Indiana 9th District
For the first time in a decade, an Indiana Democrat will face a new opponent in a battleground district.
Indiana's 9th congressional district takes in the mostly rural southeastern part of the Hoosier State. This part of the state has a southern flavor that stands in stark contrast to the Yankee tendencies of central and northern Indiana. There are two population centers in the 9th. One is in Bloomington, home of Indiana University. The other is in the Louisville, Kentucky suburbs in Clark County, where over 100,000 people live. Most of the 9th is filled with small towns where basketball has been a way of life for several generations.
Southern Indiana has maintained a stubborn Democratic tradition since the Civil War. Most of these counties were sympathetic to the Confederacy and maintained a hostility to all things northern for the next century. There are signs of change. The Clark County suburbs are filling up with affluent professionals who are voting increasingly Republican. Bloomington maintains a liberalism that is typical of most cities centered around a large University. Most of the rural counties, however, are still supportive of culturally conservative Democrats.
The result is a politically divided district. In local and state elections, Democrats traditionally run well in the 9th. However, the 9th generally supports national Republicans. George W. Bush won the 9th easily by a 59%-40% margin in 2004 and John McCain, while losing the state as a whole, defeated Barack Obama in the district 50%-49% in 2008.
Democrat Baron Hill has represented the 9th in the House from his first election in 1998 through 2004 and again since being returned to office in 2006. In four different elections from 2002-2008 the 9th was a battleground between Hill and bus company owner Mike Sodrel. Hill defeated Sodrel with 51% in 2002, but Sodrel turned the tables and ousted Hill in 2004. Hill regained the seat from Sodrel in 2006 and held it easily against Sodrel in 2008.
Hill is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Democrats and has a voting record that puts him near the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Hill supported much of President Obama's agenda, including an unpopular vote in favor of health care reform. Hill opposed TARP, but voted in favor of the Obama stimulus.
Four Republicans, including Sodrel, ran in the May GOP primary. The result was a close three-way election between Sodrel, real estate investor Travis Hankins, and former Marine and Orange County Prosecutor Todd Young. The end result showed that 9th district Republicans were ready for a new standard bearer. Young defeated Hankins by 1,200 votes, Sodrel finished third.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate who served in the Marine Corps. After being honorably discharged, Young received a Masters in politics at the University of London, worked briefly for the Heritage Foundation, and eventually earned his law degree at Indiana University. Prior to running for Congress, Young served as a deputy prosecutor in Orange County.
Hill will enter the final couple months of the campaign with a nearly 5-to-1 cash on hand advantage. Hill is well known to voters, but his history is not without its difficulties (see 2004). In a political environment that is shaping up to be worse for Indiana Democrats than 2004, Hill will really have to scramble to retain his seat. Young is a young and energetic candidate who seems to be good fit for the conservative-leaning district. Early polls have shown Young with a narrow lead. This race is rated as a toss-up by virtually all reputable handicappers. With Indiana's polls closing early (most are closed by 5:00 CST), the results in the 9th will be a good early indication of the types of gains Republicans can expect. If races like the Hill-Young race are breaking toward Republicans, it will be long night for Democrats from coast-to-coast.
Indiana's 9th congressional district takes in the mostly rural southeastern part of the Hoosier State. This part of the state has a southern flavor that stands in stark contrast to the Yankee tendencies of central and northern Indiana. There are two population centers in the 9th. One is in Bloomington, home of Indiana University. The other is in the Louisville, Kentucky suburbs in Clark County, where over 100,000 people live. Most of the 9th is filled with small towns where basketball has been a way of life for several generations.
Southern Indiana has maintained a stubborn Democratic tradition since the Civil War. Most of these counties were sympathetic to the Confederacy and maintained a hostility to all things northern for the next century. There are signs of change. The Clark County suburbs are filling up with affluent professionals who are voting increasingly Republican. Bloomington maintains a liberalism that is typical of most cities centered around a large University. Most of the rural counties, however, are still supportive of culturally conservative Democrats.
The result is a politically divided district. In local and state elections, Democrats traditionally run well in the 9th. However, the 9th generally supports national Republicans. George W. Bush won the 9th easily by a 59%-40% margin in 2004 and John McCain, while losing the state as a whole, defeated Barack Obama in the district 50%-49% in 2008.
Democrat Baron Hill has represented the 9th in the House from his first election in 1998 through 2004 and again since being returned to office in 2006. In four different elections from 2002-2008 the 9th was a battleground between Hill and bus company owner Mike Sodrel. Hill defeated Sodrel with 51% in 2002, but Sodrel turned the tables and ousted Hill in 2004. Hill regained the seat from Sodrel in 2006 and held it easily against Sodrel in 2008.
Hill is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Democrats and has a voting record that puts him near the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Hill supported much of President Obama's agenda, including an unpopular vote in favor of health care reform. Hill opposed TARP, but voted in favor of the Obama stimulus.
Four Republicans, including Sodrel, ran in the May GOP primary. The result was a close three-way election between Sodrel, real estate investor Travis Hankins, and former Marine and Orange County Prosecutor Todd Young. The end result showed that 9th district Republicans were ready for a new standard bearer. Young defeated Hankins by 1,200 votes, Sodrel finished third.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate who served in the Marine Corps. After being honorably discharged, Young received a Masters in politics at the University of London, worked briefly for the Heritage Foundation, and eventually earned his law degree at Indiana University. Prior to running for Congress, Young served as a deputy prosecutor in Orange County.
Hill will enter the final couple months of the campaign with a nearly 5-to-1 cash on hand advantage. Hill is well known to voters, but his history is not without its difficulties (see 2004). In a political environment that is shaping up to be worse for Indiana Democrats than 2004, Hill will really have to scramble to retain his seat. Young is a young and energetic candidate who seems to be good fit for the conservative-leaning district. Early polls have shown Young with a narrow lead. This race is rated as a toss-up by virtually all reputable handicappers. With Indiana's polls closing early (most are closed by 5:00 CST), the results in the 9th will be a good early indication of the types of gains Republicans can expect. If races like the Hill-Young race are breaking toward Republicans, it will be long night for Democrats from coast-to-coast.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Virginia 2nd District
A freshman Democrat who has largely opposed the Obama agenda faces a tough re-election battle in a southeastern Virginia district with a strong military presence.
Virginia's 2nd congressional district takes in all of Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hamption in the southeast corner of the state. It also includes Accomack and Northampton Counties on Virginia's Eastern Shore. The district has a very strong military feel to it. Norfolk is home to the U.S. Navy Atlantic fleet. Virginia Beach is home to four military installations with over 35,000 military and civilian employees. Military veterans comprise over 19% of the district's population.
The 2nd is focused on Virginia Beach and most of the district's population live there. The strong military presence and southern brand of cultural conservatism make this, on the whole, a Republican district. George W. Bush easily carried the 2nd 58%-42% in 2004. However, like Virginia as a whole, the 2nd took a sharp turn toward the Democrats in 2008. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district, which has a sizable African-American population, 51%-49%.
A beneficiary of the strong Obama efforts in Virginia was freshman Democratic Representative Glenn Nye. Nye, a former State Department official, waged an aggressive campaign against Republican Rep. Thelma Drake and, riding the Democratic wave, defeated the incumbent 52%-47%.
In the House, Nye earned a coveted seat on the House Armed Services Committee. In keeping with the conservative feel of his district, Nye opposed many of the signature pieces of Obama's agenda including health care reform, cap and trade, and the federal budget. According to a non-partisan analysis of Nye's voting record, he bucked his party more often than all but 8 Democrat House members.
Nye's political independence has not insulated him from a tough GOP challenge in November. The six-way June Republican primary was won by Scott Rigell, a car dealership owner who had never run for political office. Rigell is running as a Washington outsider and has vowed to be available to his constituents at all times. To this end, Rigell has even posted his home phone number on his campaign website.
Both candidates have raised significant sums of money, but Nye will have a cash on hand advantage heading into the general election as Rigell spent freely to win the GOP primary. Rigell will be able to dig into his own pockets and both national parties are planning to spend in the 2nd.
Nye's independence from national Democrats will certainly be an asset in a challenging political environment. This race is sure to be one of the closest in the country and the outcome will go a long way to determining which party holds the House majority come next January.
Virginia's 2nd congressional district takes in all of Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hamption in the southeast corner of the state. It also includes Accomack and Northampton Counties on Virginia's Eastern Shore. The district has a very strong military feel to it. Norfolk is home to the U.S. Navy Atlantic fleet. Virginia Beach is home to four military installations with over 35,000 military and civilian employees. Military veterans comprise over 19% of the district's population.
The 2nd is focused on Virginia Beach and most of the district's population live there. The strong military presence and southern brand of cultural conservatism make this, on the whole, a Republican district. George W. Bush easily carried the 2nd 58%-42% in 2004. However, like Virginia as a whole, the 2nd took a sharp turn toward the Democrats in 2008. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district, which has a sizable African-American population, 51%-49%.
A beneficiary of the strong Obama efforts in Virginia was freshman Democratic Representative Glenn Nye. Nye, a former State Department official, waged an aggressive campaign against Republican Rep. Thelma Drake and, riding the Democratic wave, defeated the incumbent 52%-47%.
In the House, Nye earned a coveted seat on the House Armed Services Committee. In keeping with the conservative feel of his district, Nye opposed many of the signature pieces of Obama's agenda including health care reform, cap and trade, and the federal budget. According to a non-partisan analysis of Nye's voting record, he bucked his party more often than all but 8 Democrat House members.
Nye's political independence has not insulated him from a tough GOP challenge in November. The six-way June Republican primary was won by Scott Rigell, a car dealership owner who had never run for political office. Rigell is running as a Washington outsider and has vowed to be available to his constituents at all times. To this end, Rigell has even posted his home phone number on his campaign website.
Both candidates have raised significant sums of money, but Nye will have a cash on hand advantage heading into the general election as Rigell spent freely to win the GOP primary. Rigell will be able to dig into his own pockets and both national parties are planning to spend in the 2nd.
Nye's independence from national Democrats will certainly be an asset in a challenging political environment. This race is sure to be one of the closest in the country and the outcome will go a long way to determining which party holds the House majority come next January.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - New York 24th District
A rematch in a different political environment could result in an upstate New York district turning from blue to red in November.
New York's 24th district is a J-shaped cluster of mostly rural counties in upstate New York. The largest cities in the district are in Oneida County, Utica and Rome. Most of the counties in the 24th have been steadily declining in population. As a whole, the 24th's population has declined by nearly 1% since 2000. Redistricting will likely take a toll on this district. Parts of the district have entered into the national consciousness: Cooperstown, in Otsego County, is the home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Oneida is home to a world-famous stainless steel factory, and the Turning Stone Resort is home to a bustling tourism industry.
This upstate region was historically a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, the 24th has moved perceptibly toward the Democrats. George W. Bush narrowly carried the 24th in 2004, but Barack Obama won the district 50%-48% in 2008.
In 2006, while New York Democrats were winning virtually everything in sight, the 24th elected moderate Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri to the House. Arcuri has a moderate voting record and, in an unusual move for a northern Democrat, joined the Blue Dogs.
In 2008, Arcuri was challenged by wealthy construction company owner Richard Hanna. Hanna ran as a moderate and spent freely from his personal fortune. Arcuri later admitted that he did not take Hanna seriously until late in the campaign. The result was a surprisingly close election with the winner not being officially declared until all absentee ballots were counted. Arcuri survived 52%-48%.
In the 111th Congress, Arcuri voted in favor the Obama health care package and for the Obama stimulus. He showed some independence by voting against the cap and trade legislation.
Hanna is back for a second shot at Arcuri this November. Both candidates are unopposed for their parties' nominations in the September 14 primary. This time, Arcuri is on notice of the serious threat that Hanna presents. Hanna has proved to be a serious fundraiser and enters the stretch run on a financial par with the incumbent.
This race is one of five or six Democratic-held New York seats that are in play in November. It will be interesting to see how the non-competitive statewide races (Democrats are heavily favored to win both Senate seats and the Governor's race) will or will not impact these down ballot races. At present, Arcuri is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the New York delegation. Hanna will only have to slightly improve his 2008 showing to defeat Arcuri, and 2010 is almost certain to be a much more favorable environment for Republicans throughout the country. How Hanna fares this time around will be a good gauge of how different this year's political landscape is from 2008.
New York's 24th district is a J-shaped cluster of mostly rural counties in upstate New York. The largest cities in the district are in Oneida County, Utica and Rome. Most of the counties in the 24th have been steadily declining in population. As a whole, the 24th's population has declined by nearly 1% since 2000. Redistricting will likely take a toll on this district. Parts of the district have entered into the national consciousness: Cooperstown, in Otsego County, is the home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Oneida is home to a world-famous stainless steel factory, and the Turning Stone Resort is home to a bustling tourism industry.
This upstate region was historically a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, the 24th has moved perceptibly toward the Democrats. George W. Bush narrowly carried the 24th in 2004, but Barack Obama won the district 50%-48% in 2008.
In 2006, while New York Democrats were winning virtually everything in sight, the 24th elected moderate Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri to the House. Arcuri has a moderate voting record and, in an unusual move for a northern Democrat, joined the Blue Dogs.
In 2008, Arcuri was challenged by wealthy construction company owner Richard Hanna. Hanna ran as a moderate and spent freely from his personal fortune. Arcuri later admitted that he did not take Hanna seriously until late in the campaign. The result was a surprisingly close election with the winner not being officially declared until all absentee ballots were counted. Arcuri survived 52%-48%.
In the 111th Congress, Arcuri voted in favor the Obama health care package and for the Obama stimulus. He showed some independence by voting against the cap and trade legislation.
Hanna is back for a second shot at Arcuri this November. Both candidates are unopposed for their parties' nominations in the September 14 primary. This time, Arcuri is on notice of the serious threat that Hanna presents. Hanna has proved to be a serious fundraiser and enters the stretch run on a financial par with the incumbent.
This race is one of five or six Democratic-held New York seats that are in play in November. It will be interesting to see how the non-competitive statewide races (Democrats are heavily favored to win both Senate seats and the Governor's race) will or will not impact these down ballot races. At present, Arcuri is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the New York delegation. Hanna will only have to slightly improve his 2008 showing to defeat Arcuri, and 2010 is almost certain to be a much more favorable environment for Republicans throughout the country. How Hanna fares this time around will be a good gauge of how different this year's political landscape is from 2008.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Florida 2nd District
An influential Blue Dog Democrat will face his second tough test of 2010 to retain his northern Florida seat.
Florida's 2nd district is made up of a mixture of inland and oceanside counties in the eastern part of the Florida panhandle. Over 40% of the 2nd's population resides in Leon County, which includes the state capital of Tallahassee. The 2nd also includes resort areas along the Gulf Coast, including Panama City and Panama City Beach. The African-American percentage in the district is 22%.
Tallahassee, with its multitude of government employees, usually supports Democrats. The district's high percentage of African-Americans also vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The resort towns along the coast are mostly Republican. Many of the rural counties are, like most of the South, historically Democratic, but in recent years they have become more friendly to Republicans. The result is a closely divided district. George W. Bush twice carried this area and John McCain performed much better here than he did in the other parts of Florida, beating Barack Obama 54%-45% in the 2nd.
Since 1996, the 2nd has been represented by moderate Democrat Allen Boyd. Boyd, a farmer from Jefferson County, has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has been an active member of the House Blue Dogs, a group of moderate-to-conservative southern Democrats. Boyd has earned the ire of Democrat Party leaders for his willingness to buck the party line and vote with Republicans. Boyd holds seats on the powerful Appropriations and Budget Committees.
In the 111th Congress, Boyd made news by original opposing Obama's health care bill, but in March switching to support the legislation. Boyd also angered many in the 2nd when he voted in support of the cap and trade legislation.
Boyd's moderate views have long put him at odds with 2nd district liberals and this culminated in a fierce primary battle this August. Boyd was challenged by liberal African-American State Senator Al Lawson who criticized Boyd for his moderate voting record. Boyd countered by touting his support for the Obama stimulus bill, climate change legislation, and the health care reform bill. Ultimately, Boyd narrowly survived 51%-49% to move on to the November general election.
Five Republicans ran in the GOP primary. The clear winner, with over 48% of the vote, was Panama City Funeral Home Owner Steve Southerland. Southerland had long been active in local civic groups, but this is his first foray into politics. Southerland is hoping to capitalize on the anti-Washington mood of many voters in the district as well as voter discontent with Boyd's moves to the left in the Democratic primary.
Despite having to spend nearly $1 million during the Democratic primary, Boyd will enter the stretch run with a large cash on hand advantage over Southerland. Boyd's camp is claiming that the tough election (the primary) is over and that he will roll to re-election in November. However, this race is listed as a toss-up by nearly every political handicapper (Rothenberg actually has this race rated "Tilt Republican"). Boyd has never had a serious Republican challenger in his congressional career. If a GOP wave builds, there is a good chance it will sweep Southerland into office.
Florida's 2nd district is made up of a mixture of inland and oceanside counties in the eastern part of the Florida panhandle. Over 40% of the 2nd's population resides in Leon County, which includes the state capital of Tallahassee. The 2nd also includes resort areas along the Gulf Coast, including Panama City and Panama City Beach. The African-American percentage in the district is 22%.
Tallahassee, with its multitude of government employees, usually supports Democrats. The district's high percentage of African-Americans also vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The resort towns along the coast are mostly Republican. Many of the rural counties are, like most of the South, historically Democratic, but in recent years they have become more friendly to Republicans. The result is a closely divided district. George W. Bush twice carried this area and John McCain performed much better here than he did in the other parts of Florida, beating Barack Obama 54%-45% in the 2nd.
Since 1996, the 2nd has been represented by moderate Democrat Allen Boyd. Boyd, a farmer from Jefferson County, has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has been an active member of the House Blue Dogs, a group of moderate-to-conservative southern Democrats. Boyd has earned the ire of Democrat Party leaders for his willingness to buck the party line and vote with Republicans. Boyd holds seats on the powerful Appropriations and Budget Committees.
In the 111th Congress, Boyd made news by original opposing Obama's health care bill, but in March switching to support the legislation. Boyd also angered many in the 2nd when he voted in support of the cap and trade legislation.
Boyd's moderate views have long put him at odds with 2nd district liberals and this culminated in a fierce primary battle this August. Boyd was challenged by liberal African-American State Senator Al Lawson who criticized Boyd for his moderate voting record. Boyd countered by touting his support for the Obama stimulus bill, climate change legislation, and the health care reform bill. Ultimately, Boyd narrowly survived 51%-49% to move on to the November general election.
Five Republicans ran in the GOP primary. The clear winner, with over 48% of the vote, was Panama City Funeral Home Owner Steve Southerland. Southerland had long been active in local civic groups, but this is his first foray into politics. Southerland is hoping to capitalize on the anti-Washington mood of many voters in the district as well as voter discontent with Boyd's moves to the left in the Democratic primary.
Despite having to spend nearly $1 million during the Democratic primary, Boyd will enter the stretch run with a large cash on hand advantage over Southerland. Boyd's camp is claiming that the tough election (the primary) is over and that he will roll to re-election in November. However, this race is listed as a toss-up by nearly every political handicapper (Rothenberg actually has this race rated "Tilt Republican"). Boyd has never had a serious Republican challenger in his congressional career. If a GOP wave builds, there is a good chance it will sweep Southerland into office.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - South Dakota's At-Large District
South Dakota will be the site of one of the most fiercely competitive House races in the country this November.
South Dakota has had only one congressional district since it lost its second district after the 1990 census results. The state's population growth has been slow in recent decades and it is not expected to top 800,000 in the 2010 census. Sioux Falls, in the southeast part of the state, is South Dakota's largest city with a population nearing 150,000. Over half of South Dakotans live in areas classified by the Census Bureau as urban, certainly a change from most of the state's history.
Traditionally, South Dakota politics has been mostly Republican, although it is open to Democrats, especially in tough economic times. It has also been home to national Democratic leaders in George McGovern and Tom Daschle. The cultural liberalism of the most recent Democratic Presidential nominees has led South Dakota to support national Republicans, twice voting for George W. Bush (by 60%-38% in 2004) and favoring John McCain in 2008 by the narrower margin of 53%-45%.
Since 2004, South Dakota's lone house seat has been represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Originally elected as Stephanie Herseth in a 2004 special election to fill the term of Congressman Bill Janklow, the congresswoman married former Texas Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin in 2007.
Telegenic and hailing from a well-known South Dakota political family, Herseth Sandlin has compiled a moderate voting record on most issues. She is a top-ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee and she holds a subcommittee chairmanship on the Veterans' Affairs Committee, both valuable spots for any South Dakota representative. After two narrow victories in the 2004 special election and general election, she won easily in 2006 and 2008.
In the 111th Congress, Herseth Sandlin has continued to show her independence from her party. She opposed the Obama health care package as well as the cap and trade legislation.
With 2010 shaping up to be a very strong year for South Dakota Republicans and with President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi very unpopular in the state, Herseth Sandlin is a GOP target. Three Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to challenge Herseth Sandlin in November. State Representatives Kristi Noem, from Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota, and Blake Curd, a doctor from Sioux Falls, spent and raised large sums of money to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson spent very little. In the end, Noem prevailed with 42%. Nelson finished second with 35% and Curd, despite outspending both opponents, trailed with 23% of the vote.
Noem, who serves as Assistant Majority Leader in the South Dakota House, is a rancher and mother of three. She is campaigning as a cultural and economic conservative. She is attempting to tie Herseth Sandlin to the unpopular Pelosi and Obama.
Herseth Sandlin enters the final few weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage, but outside spending by interest groups and the national parties will also have a major impact. Rasmussen's polling on this race has been all over the place, with polls in March and April showing Herseth Sandlin leading comfortably and summer polls showing Noem taking a large lead. The most recent Rasmussen poll is probably the most accurate; it shows Herseth Sandlin leading 47%-45%, well within the margin of error.
Herseth Sandlin has a record that may allow her to prove to South Dakota voters that she is no Pelosi clone. However, the popular congresswoman has never run in such a poisonous political environment for Democrats. Noem is an energetic and telegenic candidate who is certainly capable of knocking off Herseth Sandlin. This is a true toss-up race at this point, with no clear favorite. If I had to make a pick right now, I would give Noem a very, very slight edge. Republicans will need to win here and in neighboring North Dakota's At-Large district if they have any inclinations of winning a House majority.
South Dakota has had only one congressional district since it lost its second district after the 1990 census results. The state's population growth has been slow in recent decades and it is not expected to top 800,000 in the 2010 census. Sioux Falls, in the southeast part of the state, is South Dakota's largest city with a population nearing 150,000. Over half of South Dakotans live in areas classified by the Census Bureau as urban, certainly a change from most of the state's history.
Traditionally, South Dakota politics has been mostly Republican, although it is open to Democrats, especially in tough economic times. It has also been home to national Democratic leaders in George McGovern and Tom Daschle. The cultural liberalism of the most recent Democratic Presidential nominees has led South Dakota to support national Republicans, twice voting for George W. Bush (by 60%-38% in 2004) and favoring John McCain in 2008 by the narrower margin of 53%-45%.
Since 2004, South Dakota's lone house seat has been represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Originally elected as Stephanie Herseth in a 2004 special election to fill the term of Congressman Bill Janklow, the congresswoman married former Texas Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin in 2007.
Telegenic and hailing from a well-known South Dakota political family, Herseth Sandlin has compiled a moderate voting record on most issues. She is a top-ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee and she holds a subcommittee chairmanship on the Veterans' Affairs Committee, both valuable spots for any South Dakota representative. After two narrow victories in the 2004 special election and general election, she won easily in 2006 and 2008.
In the 111th Congress, Herseth Sandlin has continued to show her independence from her party. She opposed the Obama health care package as well as the cap and trade legislation.
With 2010 shaping up to be a very strong year for South Dakota Republicans and with President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi very unpopular in the state, Herseth Sandlin is a GOP target. Three Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to challenge Herseth Sandlin in November. State Representatives Kristi Noem, from Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota, and Blake Curd, a doctor from Sioux Falls, spent and raised large sums of money to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson spent very little. In the end, Noem prevailed with 42%. Nelson finished second with 35% and Curd, despite outspending both opponents, trailed with 23% of the vote.
Noem, who serves as Assistant Majority Leader in the South Dakota House, is a rancher and mother of three. She is campaigning as a cultural and economic conservative. She is attempting to tie Herseth Sandlin to the unpopular Pelosi and Obama.
Herseth Sandlin enters the final few weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage, but outside spending by interest groups and the national parties will also have a major impact. Rasmussen's polling on this race has been all over the place, with polls in March and April showing Herseth Sandlin leading comfortably and summer polls showing Noem taking a large lead. The most recent Rasmussen poll is probably the most accurate; it shows Herseth Sandlin leading 47%-45%, well within the margin of error.
Herseth Sandlin has a record that may allow her to prove to South Dakota voters that she is no Pelosi clone. However, the popular congresswoman has never run in such a poisonous political environment for Democrats. Noem is an energetic and telegenic candidate who is certainly capable of knocking off Herseth Sandlin. This is a true toss-up race at this point, with no clear favorite. If I had to make a pick right now, I would give Noem a very, very slight edge. Republicans will need to win here and in neighboring North Dakota's At-Large district if they have any inclinations of winning a House majority.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Pennsylvania 7th District
The Philadelphia suburbs will play host to one of the most competitive open seat contests of the 2010 election cycle.
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district includes almost all of suburban Delaware County as well as slivers of Montgomery and Chester counties. Over 70% of the district's population resides in Delaware County, just to the west of Philadelphia. This suburban district is older and more well-established than many suburban districts in the country.
These relatively affluent slices of suburbia were long favorable to Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan. Delaware County favored GOP Presidential candidates in nearly every election from 1856 to 1988. As Philadelphians have moved out into the suburbs and the Republican Party has moved toward social conservatism, these Philly suburbs have turned toward the Democrat Party. George W. Bush lost this district 53%-47% in 2004 and Barack Obama carried the 7th resoundingly 56%-43% in 2008.
The Democratic tilt of the 7th's Philadelphia suburbs resulted in the ouster of 20-year GOP incumbent Curt Weldon by Democrat Joe Sestak in 2006. Sestak, a retired three-star Navy admiral with a moderate voting record, easily won re-election in 2008 and seemed well-positioned to hold the seat indefinitely. In August 2009, to the surprise of most political observers, Sestak announced that he would challenge party-switching Democrat Senator Arlen Specter in the May 2010 Democratic Primary. Sestak, despite the opposition of the Obama White House, defeated Specter and now faces Republican Pat Toomey in the November general election.
Sestak's surprise decision to forego re-election in the 7th left an open seat contest in a competitive district. Both parties were able to avoid intraparty squabbles and nominated their respective candidates without primary competition.
The Democrat's standard bearer is Bryan Lentz. Lentz is a retired Army veteran, former prosecuting attorney, and two-term member of the Pennsylvania State House. Lentz is running on a moderate platform and is emphasizing his status as a Washington outsider.
The Republican nominee is U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Meehan is well-known in the 7th as a tough prosecutor who often goes toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia political establishment. He is running as a fiscal conservative.
The increasingly Democratic nature of this district makes it a difficult seat for the GOP to win. However, Meehan has outraised Lentz and has, thus far, proven to be one of the strongest Republican House candidates in the country. To win, Meehan will have to appeal to moderates in the 7th, who have increasingly been voting Democratic. He seems to have the personality and political stances to make this across the aisle pitch. Republicans are bullish on Meehan's chances to return this district to the Republican column and he enters the home stretch as the slight favorite.
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district includes almost all of suburban Delaware County as well as slivers of Montgomery and Chester counties. Over 70% of the district's population resides in Delaware County, just to the west of Philadelphia. This suburban district is older and more well-established than many suburban districts in the country.
These relatively affluent slices of suburbia were long favorable to Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan. Delaware County favored GOP Presidential candidates in nearly every election from 1856 to 1988. As Philadelphians have moved out into the suburbs and the Republican Party has moved toward social conservatism, these Philly suburbs have turned toward the Democrat Party. George W. Bush lost this district 53%-47% in 2004 and Barack Obama carried the 7th resoundingly 56%-43% in 2008.
The Democratic tilt of the 7th's Philadelphia suburbs resulted in the ouster of 20-year GOP incumbent Curt Weldon by Democrat Joe Sestak in 2006. Sestak, a retired three-star Navy admiral with a moderate voting record, easily won re-election in 2008 and seemed well-positioned to hold the seat indefinitely. In August 2009, to the surprise of most political observers, Sestak announced that he would challenge party-switching Democrat Senator Arlen Specter in the May 2010 Democratic Primary. Sestak, despite the opposition of the Obama White House, defeated Specter and now faces Republican Pat Toomey in the November general election.
Sestak's surprise decision to forego re-election in the 7th left an open seat contest in a competitive district. Both parties were able to avoid intraparty squabbles and nominated their respective candidates without primary competition.
The Democrat's standard bearer is Bryan Lentz. Lentz is a retired Army veteran, former prosecuting attorney, and two-term member of the Pennsylvania State House. Lentz is running on a moderate platform and is emphasizing his status as a Washington outsider.
The Republican nominee is U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Meehan is well-known in the 7th as a tough prosecutor who often goes toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia political establishment. He is running as a fiscal conservative.
The increasingly Democratic nature of this district makes it a difficult seat for the GOP to win. However, Meehan has outraised Lentz and has, thus far, proven to be one of the strongest Republican House candidates in the country. To win, Meehan will have to appeal to moderates in the 7th, who have increasingly been voting Democratic. He seems to have the personality and political stances to make this across the aisle pitch. Republicans are bullish on Meehan's chances to return this district to the Republican column and he enters the home stretch as the slight favorite.
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