50 Most Vulnerable U.S. House Incumbents

In my U.S. House Race Spotlight series, I have been chronicling competitive U.S. House races that will determine whether the House maintains a Democratic majority or whether Republicans can win a net gain of 39 seats and become the majority party.  The Republican roadmap for winning the House involves winning open seats where the incumbent is not on the ballot, defeating Democratic incumbents, and re-electing the few Republican incumbents who are in danger this year.

The following is a list of the 50 incumbent House representatives who are most likely to lose their seats in November.  For each incumbent I have included the percentage chance of their losing in November.

(1) Joseph Cao (R) LA-2
Chance of losing: 79%

(2) Frank Kratovil (D) MD-1
Chance of losing: 65%

(3) Harry Teague (D) NM-2
Chance of losing: 65%

(4) Steve Driehaus (D) OH-1
Chance of losing: 65%

(5) Mary Jo Kilroy (D) OH-15
Chance of losing: 65%

(6) Betsy Markey (D) CO-4
Chance of losing: 63%

(7) Suzanne Kosmas (D) FL-24
Chance of losing: 63%

(8) Travis Childers (D) MS-1
Chance of losing: 62%

(9) Earl Pomeroy (D) ND-AL
Chance of losing: 62%

(10) Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH-1
Chance of losing: 62%

(11) Charles Djou (R) HI-1
Chance of losing: 60%

(12) Debbie Halvorson (D) IL-11
Chance of losing: 60%

(13) Chet Edwards (D) TX-17
Chance of losing: 60%

(14) Alan Grayson (D) FL-8
Chance of losing: 57%

(15) Dina Titus (D) NV-3
Chance of losing: 57%

(16) Paul Kanjorski (D) PA-11
Chance of losing: 57%

(17) Tom Perriello (D) VA-5
Chance of losing: 57%

(18) Mark Schauer (D) MI-7
Chance of losing: 55%

(19) John Boccieri (D) OH-16
Chance of losing: 55%

(20) Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) SD-AL
Chance of losing: 53%

(21) Allen Boyd (D) FL-2
Chance of losing: 52%

(22) Mike Arcuri (D) NY-24
Chance of losing: 52%

(23) Glenn Nye (D) VA-2
Chance of losing: 52%

(24) Baron Hill (D) IN-9
Chance of losing: 50%

(25) John Spratt (D) SC-5
Chance of losing: 50%

(26) Bill Foster (D) IL-14
Chance of losing: 48%

(27) Kathy Dahlkemper (D) PA-3
Chance of losing: 47%

(28) Larry Kissell (D) NC-8
Chance of losing: 45%

(29) Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ-1
Chance of losing: 42%

(30) Bobby Bright (D) AL-2
Chance of losing: 40%

(31) Harry Mitchell (D) AZ-5
Chance of losing: 38%

(32) Jerry McNerney (D) CA-11
Chance of losing: 38%

(33) Jim Marshall (D) GA-8
Chance of losing: 38%

(34) John Hall (D) NY-19
Chance of losing: 38%

(35) Chris Carney (D) PA-10
Chance of losing: 38%

(36) Patrick Murphy (D) PA-8
Chance of losing: 37%

(37) Gabrielle Giffords (D) AZ-8
Chance of losing: 35%

(38) Leonard Boswell (D) IA-3
Chance of losing: 35%

(39) Zach Space (D) OH-18
Chance of losing: 35%

(40) Ciro Rodriguez (D) TX-23
Chance of losing: 35%

(41) Steve Kagen (D) WI-8
Chance of losing: 35%

(42) Walt Minnick (D) ID-1
Chance of losing: 30%

(43) Ike Skelton (D) MO-4
Chance of losing: 30%

(44) Martin Heinrich (D) NM-1
Chance of losing: 30%

(45) Betty Sutton (D) OH-13
Chance of losing: 30%

(46) Rick Boucher (D) VA-9
Chance of losing: 30%

(47) John Salazar (D) CO-3
Chance of losing: 27%

(48) Tim Bishop (D) NY-1
Chance of losing: 27%

(49) Scott Murphy (D) NY-20
Chance of losing: 27%

(50) Bill Owens (D) NY-23
Chance of losing: 27%