The Republicans are eyeing an open Southeast Louisiana district as an excellent pick-up opportunity this November.
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district takes in the southeast quarter of the state. This is a swampy area where most of the roads have to be built on stilts to make them navigable. The 3rd takes in much of southern Louisiana's Cajun population, with their distinctive accents and unique cultural traditions. The area also includes metro New Orleans suburbs in St. Bernard Parish.
The first decade of the 21st century has not been kind to this part of the country. Much of the 3rd district was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina and it is struggling to recover economically. The 3rd has declined in population by nearly 3% since 2000. The BP oil spill and the Obama administration's subsequent halt to offshore oil drilling further hampered economic prospects in the 3rd.
The district is ancestrally favorable to conservative Democrats, but the district does not react favorably to present-day national Democrats. John McCain carried the district by a decisive 61%-37% margin in 2008. It is widely expected that if Louisiana loses a congressional district after the 2010 census (as it almost certainly will due to population exodus following Katrina), the 3rd will be carved up and split among neighboring districts. The 2nd district, which has declined in population by almost 30%, is unlikely to be eliminated due to it being the state's lone black-majority district.
The Congressman from the 3rd district is moderate Democrat Charlie Melancon. Melancon has represented the 3rd since 2004, when he won the seat of powerful Democrat-turned-Republican Billy Tauzin by defeating Tauzin's son among others. Melancon is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative-to-moderate House Democrats. In August 2009, Melancon announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. He easily secured the Democratic nomination but is an underdog in his bid to unseat Republican Senator David Vitter in November.
Melancon's decision to run for the Senate created a big opening for Republicans to pick up this seat. The early GOP frontrunner was former Louisiana House Speaker Hunt Downer. Downer, who had been a Democrat for most of his political career, came under withering attack from the right for his past party affiliation and, probably more damning in this district, a lifelong politician. Conservatives and tea party activists rallied behind New Iberia Businessman and Army Veteran Jeff Landry. In the August primary election, Landry won a divisive victory earning 49% of the vote in a three-way primary. Downer finished a distant second, but still advanced to the October 2 runoff election since no candidate reached the 50% threshold.
Since the primary, the Louisiana Republican Party has thrown its full support behind Landry and the third-place candidate in the primary has wholeheartedly endorsed Landry. Downer has been pressured to bow out of the race, but has yet to do so. Landry is looking more and more like he will emerge as the GOP nominee and he has begun to focus much of his energies on the general election.
Democrats struggled to find a nominee to fill Melancon's shoes. The only Democrat to run was Houma Attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Sangisetty, like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, is of Indian descent. Sangisetty has failed to fundraise on par with Landry and he will be a heavy underdog against either Landry or Downer in November.
Republicans are virtually locked in to pick up this district. Landry is a good bet to advance to the November general election and he seems poised to take this conservative-oriented seat. His win should offset the expected loss of GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in the neighboring 2nd district, who was elected in a heavily Democratic district over a scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent in 2008.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Maryland 1st District
A vulnerable member of the Democrat Freshman class faces a tough re-election battle in a heavily Republican district.
Maryland's 1st congressional district contains all of Maryland's legendary Eastern Shore. These long-settled farming and tourism dependent counties, separated from the rest of Maryland by the Chesapeake Bay, have long valued their uniqueness. As recently as 1998, a resolution was debated in the Maryland Assembly to grant the Eastern Shore independence from the rest of Maryland and to allow it to seek separate statehood. The 1st also reaches across the Bay into heavily Republican suburbs north of Baltimore.
The 1st was designed by Democratic redistricters to be heavily Republican so as to allow other Maryland districts to elect Democrats. The Eastern Shore has long favored Republicans, despite the fact that most of its counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even as Barack Obama won a decisive 26% victory in Maryland, he lost the 1st overwhelmingly 59%-40%.
The huge GOP advantage in the 1st made the 2008 election of Democrat Frank Kratovil all the more surprising. Kratovil benefitted immensely from a long-standing split between moderate and conservative Republicans in the 1st to squeak to victory two years ago. In the 2008 GOP primary, conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated 18-year incumbent Wayne Gilchrest 43%-33%. Harris repeatedly hammered Gilchrest for his moderate stands on national defense and economic issues.
Gilchrest refused to concede to Harris and effectively opened the door for a Kratovil win. Harris outraised Kratovil, but the DCCC spent over $2 million on Kratovil's behalf, effectively eliminating any financial advantage Harris had. Kratovil campaigned as a moderate and narrowly won 49%-48%.
In his first term, Kratovil has hued to the center of the House. He was one of 11 Democrats to oppose Obama's economic stimulus plan (he later supported the final Senate version) and he voted against the White House's Health Care package. Kratovil supported the controversial cap and trade legislation.
In March 2009, Harris announced that he would challenge Kratovil in 2010. Moderate businessman Rob Fisher also ran in the September GOP primary. Fisher outspent Harris and received the endorsement of Gilchrest, but Harris cruised to an easy 2-to-1 victory.
The Kratovil-Harris rematch promises to be one of the GOP's best chances to knock off a Democratic incumbent. The 1st is heavily Republican and although the moderate-conservative divide still exists, the wounds of 2008 are not nearly so fresh in 2010. Additionally, Kratovil now has to run as an incumbent and his national party leaders are very unpopular in the 1st. Harris is one of the most well-funded GOP challengers this cycle and he will be able to spend on par with the incumbent. Harris can also probably count on the support of the anti-tax group Club for Growth, which helped him upend Gilchrest in 2008.
Both candidates are well-known in the 1st after the bruising 2008 campaign. Given Kratovil's narrow margin of victory and the Republican's anticipated strength this year, expect Harris to win this go around.
Maryland's 1st congressional district contains all of Maryland's legendary Eastern Shore. These long-settled farming and tourism dependent counties, separated from the rest of Maryland by the Chesapeake Bay, have long valued their uniqueness. As recently as 1998, a resolution was debated in the Maryland Assembly to grant the Eastern Shore independence from the rest of Maryland and to allow it to seek separate statehood. The 1st also reaches across the Bay into heavily Republican suburbs north of Baltimore.
The 1st was designed by Democratic redistricters to be heavily Republican so as to allow other Maryland districts to elect Democrats. The Eastern Shore has long favored Republicans, despite the fact that most of its counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even as Barack Obama won a decisive 26% victory in Maryland, he lost the 1st overwhelmingly 59%-40%.
The huge GOP advantage in the 1st made the 2008 election of Democrat Frank Kratovil all the more surprising. Kratovil benefitted immensely from a long-standing split between moderate and conservative Republicans in the 1st to squeak to victory two years ago. In the 2008 GOP primary, conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated 18-year incumbent Wayne Gilchrest 43%-33%. Harris repeatedly hammered Gilchrest for his moderate stands on national defense and economic issues.
Gilchrest refused to concede to Harris and effectively opened the door for a Kratovil win. Harris outraised Kratovil, but the DCCC spent over $2 million on Kratovil's behalf, effectively eliminating any financial advantage Harris had. Kratovil campaigned as a moderate and narrowly won 49%-48%.
In his first term, Kratovil has hued to the center of the House. He was one of 11 Democrats to oppose Obama's economic stimulus plan (he later supported the final Senate version) and he voted against the White House's Health Care package. Kratovil supported the controversial cap and trade legislation.
In March 2009, Harris announced that he would challenge Kratovil in 2010. Moderate businessman Rob Fisher also ran in the September GOP primary. Fisher outspent Harris and received the endorsement of Gilchrest, but Harris cruised to an easy 2-to-1 victory.
The Kratovil-Harris rematch promises to be one of the GOP's best chances to knock off a Democratic incumbent. The 1st is heavily Republican and although the moderate-conservative divide still exists, the wounds of 2008 are not nearly so fresh in 2010. Additionally, Kratovil now has to run as an incumbent and his national party leaders are very unpopular in the 1st. Harris is one of the most well-funded GOP challengers this cycle and he will be able to spend on par with the incumbent. Harris can also probably count on the support of the anti-tax group Club for Growth, which helped him upend Gilchrest in 2008.
Both candidates are well-known in the 1st after the bruising 2008 campaign. Given Kratovil's narrow margin of victory and the Republican's anticipated strength this year, expect Harris to win this go around.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - New York 29th District
One of the GOP's best pick-up opportunities in November will be in this southern New York open seat contest.
New York's 29th district is a backward L-shaped district that ranges from the southern suburbs of Rochester near Lake Ontario in the north to New York's border with Pennsylvania on the south. The district includes Elmira, Pittsford, Corning, and Olean. The district is dotted with small towns and is a world apart from New York City. This district, like much of Upstate New York, has not experienced much, if any, population growth in recent decades.
The small town feel of this district, coupled with the historical preference for Republicans in Upstate have made this district Republican. The 29th gave George W. Bush a hefty 14% victory in 2004 and while Barack Obama carried much of Upstate in 2008 he lost the 29th by 3%.
The Democratic wave of 2008 was enough to allow Democrat Eric Massa to defeat two-term incumbent Randy Kuhl in the 29th. Massa, a Navy veteran who had served as General Wesley Clark's special assistant, ran as a centrist and defeated Kuhl by just over 5,000 votes.
Massa had a bumpy road from the start of his congressional career. First, he failed to win a coveted seat on the House Transportation Committee. He made controversial comments with regard to health care (stating at one point that he would vote against the interests of his district if necessary).
In October 2009, Massa announced that he would seek re-election to Congress. However, in February 2010, a senior member of Massa's staff filed sexual harassment complaints with the House Ethics Committee. In early March, Massa announced that he would not seek re-election, citing a recurrence of cancer. Two days later, Massa resigned his seat in Congress citing his health and the on-going ethics investigation.
Massa's odd behavior briefly made him a national celebrity. Allegations came forward that Massa had groped male staff members; Massa admitted to getting too familiar with his staff. Massa also made national headlines when he claimed a naked White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel bullied him for his failure to support the President's budget.
Compared to Massa's melodramatic exit from the House, the race to succeed him has been a quiet affair. Corning Attorney and Businessman Tom Reed secured the GOP nomination without competition. Reed is touting his outsider status and is running on a mostly conservative platform. Democrats scrambled to come up with a nominee in the aftermath of the Massa scandal. In the end, the Democrats nominated 28-year-old Afghanistan veteran Matt Zeller. Zeller is running as a fiscally conservative, military supporting Democrat.
Reed has raised considerably more money than Zeller. At the last reporting period, Zeller listed only $50,000 in the bank. National Democrats have not decided to target this race, virtually conceding this seat to the GOP. Reed should have no trouble flipping this seat in November.
New York's 29th district is a backward L-shaped district that ranges from the southern suburbs of Rochester near Lake Ontario in the north to New York's border with Pennsylvania on the south. The district includes Elmira, Pittsford, Corning, and Olean. The district is dotted with small towns and is a world apart from New York City. This district, like much of Upstate New York, has not experienced much, if any, population growth in recent decades.
The small town feel of this district, coupled with the historical preference for Republicans in Upstate have made this district Republican. The 29th gave George W. Bush a hefty 14% victory in 2004 and while Barack Obama carried much of Upstate in 2008 he lost the 29th by 3%.
The Democratic wave of 2008 was enough to allow Democrat Eric Massa to defeat two-term incumbent Randy Kuhl in the 29th. Massa, a Navy veteran who had served as General Wesley Clark's special assistant, ran as a centrist and defeated Kuhl by just over 5,000 votes.
Massa had a bumpy road from the start of his congressional career. First, he failed to win a coveted seat on the House Transportation Committee. He made controversial comments with regard to health care (stating at one point that he would vote against the interests of his district if necessary).
In October 2009, Massa announced that he would seek re-election to Congress. However, in February 2010, a senior member of Massa's staff filed sexual harassment complaints with the House Ethics Committee. In early March, Massa announced that he would not seek re-election, citing a recurrence of cancer. Two days later, Massa resigned his seat in Congress citing his health and the on-going ethics investigation.
Massa's odd behavior briefly made him a national celebrity. Allegations came forward that Massa had groped male staff members; Massa admitted to getting too familiar with his staff. Massa also made national headlines when he claimed a naked White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel bullied him for his failure to support the President's budget.
Compared to Massa's melodramatic exit from the House, the race to succeed him has been a quiet affair. Corning Attorney and Businessman Tom Reed secured the GOP nomination without competition. Reed is touting his outsider status and is running on a mostly conservative platform. Democrats scrambled to come up with a nominee in the aftermath of the Massa scandal. In the end, the Democrats nominated 28-year-old Afghanistan veteran Matt Zeller. Zeller is running as a fiscally conservative, military supporting Democrat.
Reed has raised considerably more money than Zeller. At the last reporting period, Zeller listed only $50,000 in the bank. National Democrats have not decided to target this race, virtually conceding this seat to the GOP. Reed should have no trouble flipping this seat in November.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Roadmap to a Republican-controlled House
My readers probably all know that Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to retake the House. The following if my roadmap, showing the races the GOP needs to win to take a majority. Open seats are in bold. Seats with a freshman incumbent are italicized. Seats with a sophomore incumbent are underlined.
Republicans must win at least 20 of the following Democratic-held seats where they are currently favored to win:
(1) NY-29
(2) TN-6
(3) AR-2
(4) LA-3
(5) KS-3
(6) IN-8
(7) MD-1
(8) NM-2
(9) OH-1
(10) OH-15
(11) CO-4
(12) FL-24
(13) MS-1
(14) ND-AL
(15) NH-1
(16) NH-2
(17) WA-3
(18) AR-1
(19) IL-11
(20) TN-8
(21) TX-17
(22) FL-8
(23) MI-1
(24) PA-11
(25) VA-5
Republicans need to win at least 20 of the following Democrat-held seats that are generally regarded as toss-ups:
(1) MI-7
(2) OH-16
(3) PA-7
(4) WI-7
(5) FL-2
(6) NV-3
(7) NY-24
(8) VA-2
(9) IN-9
(10) SC-5
(11) WV-1
(12) IL-14
(13) SD-AL
(14) PA-3
(15) NC-8
(16) AZ-1
(17) AL-2
(18) AZ-5
(19) CA-11
(20) GA-8
(21) NY-19
(22) PA-10
(23) PA-8
(24) AZ-8
(25) IA-3
Depending on their success in securing the above seats, the Republicans will probably need to win 5-10 of the following Democrat-held seats where the Democrat is currently the favorite.
(1) OH-18
(2) TX-23
(3) WI-8
(4) ID-1
(5) MO-4
(6) NM-1
(7) OH-13
(8) VA-9
(9) CO-3
(10) MA-10
(11) NY-1
(12) NY-20
(13) NY-23
(14) OR-5
(15) PA-12
(16) IN-2
(17) KY-6
(18) NJ-3
(19) FL-22
(20) VA-11
(21) TN-4
(22) NY-13
(23) IL-17
(24) NC-11
(25) WA-2
Republicans probably won't need to win any of the following Democrat-held seats to secure a House majority, but any wins in this group will mean a GOP wave has developed.
(1) MI-9
(2) CA-47
(3) CT-4
(4) GA-2
(5) KY-3
(6) NY-25
(7) PA-17
(8) PA-4
(9) CO-7
(10) CT-5
(11) WI-3
(12) WV-3
(13) CA-18
(14) IL-8
(15) NC-2
(16) MN-1
(17) RI-1
(18) CA-20
(19) NJ-12
(20) NC-7
(21) OR-1
(22) ME-1
(23) ME-2
(24) AR-4
(25) GA-12
Republicans are expected to lose 3-4 GOP-held seats, obviously if Republican candidates pull off these races, it will decrease the number of Democrat-held seats the GOP must pick up. The Republican-held seats in jeopardy are the following:
(1) LA-2
(2) DE-AL
(3) HI-1
(4) IL-10
Republicans must win at least 20 of the following Democratic-held seats where they are currently favored to win:
(1) NY-29
(2) TN-6
(3) AR-2
(4) LA-3
(5) KS-3
(6) IN-8
(7) MD-1
(8) NM-2
(9) OH-1
(10) OH-15
(11) CO-4
(12) FL-24
(13) MS-1
(14) ND-AL
(15) NH-1
(16) NH-2
(17) WA-3
(18) AR-1
(19) IL-11
(20) TN-8
(21) TX-17
(22) FL-8
(23) MI-1
(24) PA-11
(25) VA-5
Republicans need to win at least 20 of the following Democrat-held seats that are generally regarded as toss-ups:
(1) MI-7
(2) OH-16
(3) PA-7
(4) WI-7
(5) FL-2
(6) NV-3
(7) NY-24
(8) VA-2
(9) IN-9
(10) SC-5
(11) WV-1
(12) IL-14
(13) SD-AL
(14) PA-3
(15) NC-8
(16) AZ-1
(17) AL-2
(18) AZ-5
(19) CA-11
(20) GA-8
(21) NY-19
(22) PA-10
(23) PA-8
(24) AZ-8
(25) IA-3
Depending on their success in securing the above seats, the Republicans will probably need to win 5-10 of the following Democrat-held seats where the Democrat is currently the favorite.
(1) OH-18
(2) TX-23
(3) WI-8
(4) ID-1
(5) MO-4
(6) NM-1
(7) OH-13
(8) VA-9
(9) CO-3
(10) MA-10
(11) NY-1
(12) NY-20
(13) NY-23
(14) OR-5
(15) PA-12
(16) IN-2
(17) KY-6
(18) NJ-3
(19) FL-22
(20) VA-11
(21) TN-4
(22) NY-13
(23) IL-17
(24) NC-11
(25) WA-2
Republicans probably won't need to win any of the following Democrat-held seats to secure a House majority, but any wins in this group will mean a GOP wave has developed.
(1) MI-9
(2) CA-47
(3) CT-4
(4) GA-2
(5) KY-3
(6) NY-25
(7) PA-17
(8) PA-4
(9) CO-7
(10) CT-5
(11) WI-3
(12) WV-3
(13) CA-18
(14) IL-8
(15) NC-2
(16) MN-1
(17) RI-1
(18) CA-20
(19) NJ-12
(20) NC-7
(21) OR-1
(22) ME-1
(23) ME-2
(24) AR-4
(25) GA-12
Republicans are expected to lose 3-4 GOP-held seats, obviously if Republican candidates pull off these races, it will decrease the number of Democrat-held seats the GOP must pick up. The Republican-held seats in jeopardy are the following:
(1) LA-2
(2) DE-AL
(3) HI-1
(4) IL-10
Fire Thomas S. Ross
The Delaware Republican Party is completely at fault if Christine O'Donnell loses the U.S. Senate race in November. Below you will find the e-mail I sent to the Delaware Republican Party expressing my sincere disappointment over how they attempted to personally destroy O'Donnell to bolster the candidacy of liberal Mike Castle. Thomas S. Ross is the Chairman of the Delaware Republican Party.
The Delaware GOP establishment pulled out all the stops to get Castle the nomination, including making unfounded and personal attacks against a member of their own party! This disgusts me and if you share my feelings on how reprehensibly the Delaware GOP handled this situation you can e-mail the party at info@delawaregop.com.
My Open Letter to the Delaware Republican Party:
To Whom It May Concern:
The Delaware GOP establishment pulled out all the stops to get Castle the nomination, including making unfounded and personal attacks against a member of their own party! This disgusts me and if you share my feelings on how reprehensibly the Delaware GOP handled this situation you can e-mail the party at info@delawaregop.com.
My Open Letter to the Delaware Republican Party:
To Whom It May Concern:
This lifelong Republican is thoroughly disgusted by the conduct of the Delaware Republican Party during this primary season. Your full-throated attacks on a member of your own party were disgusting and have now completely jeopardized your party's chances to win the U.S. Senate seat in November.
The Delaware Republican Party's endorsements were clearly out of step with the majority of your own party. Your two endorsed candidates in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races were both defeated. This says something very damning about how out of touch the Delaware Republican Party is with its own primary voters.
Make no mistake, if either the U.S. Senate seat or the U.S. House seat in Delaware is lost by Republicans in November (most analysts now think both will be), the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the Delaware Republican Party. There was no need for a state party to endorse candidates prior to the party primary. To make personal attacks against a candidate in your party's primary is completely inexcusable.
It is my hope that Delaware Republicans will make some serious changes to this out-of-touch, entrenched state party.
Sincerely,
Nathan Wright
O'Donnell, Ayotte, and the Power of Palin
If there has been anything we have learned during the 2010 primary season it is that conservatives are angry, energized, and fighting for control of the Republican Party.
When the "Tea Party" began its ascendency, many in the media predicted that these conservatives would form a third party siphoning off votes from the GOP, leading to Democratic wins in closely contested elections. For the most part, Tea Party groups have taken a different tack: confronting "establishment" or "mainstream" Republican candidates in a handful of crucial primaries, particularly in U.S. Senate races throughout the country.
The Tea Party can claim some credit for conservative GOP primary upsets in U.S. Senate races in Kentucky, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and last night in Delaware. The movement can also claim credit for upsets in the New York Gubernatorial primary, and in House races throughout the country.
Perhaps the most visible leader of the Tea Party movement is 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin. Palin, whose brief foray onto the national stage in the 2008 election season made her a favorite of conservatives and drew the ire of liberals, has proven to be a powerhouse during the primary election season. The former Alaska governor, utilizing social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, has endorsed conservative, usually tea-party backed, Republican candidates in races across the country.
Palin's endorsement record started out strong, waned slightly over the summer, and then helped account for two of the biggest upsets in recent political history. First, Palin waded back into Alaska politics by endorsing conservative attorney Joe Miller in his bid to unseat moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski. Miller was the heavy underdog until Election Day, when he ousted Murkowski. Then, Palin endorsed conservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Senate primary. Last night O'Donnell shocked long-time congressman and former Delaware Governor Mike Castle, who is one of the most liberal GOP members of the Congress.
Palin also waded into the contested New Hampshire Senate primary by backing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. This endorsement actually put Palin at odds with many in the tea party movement who preferred Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte appears to have narrowly won the primary, largely due to Palin's endorsement.
The 2010 primary season ends as one of the most unique and entertaining primary seasons in recent memory. In some cases, like in the Delaware Senate race, by veering to the right Republicans probably nominated a candidate who is less likely to win in November. The question to ask yourself is whether this is a bad thing. I think not. If it takes liberal Republicans like Mike Castle to take back Congress, I would rather the Democrats just stay in power. I would rather the Republican Party lose with a conservative on the ballot than win with a liberal on the GOP line.
When the "Tea Party" began its ascendency, many in the media predicted that these conservatives would form a third party siphoning off votes from the GOP, leading to Democratic wins in closely contested elections. For the most part, Tea Party groups have taken a different tack: confronting "establishment" or "mainstream" Republican candidates in a handful of crucial primaries, particularly in U.S. Senate races throughout the country.
The Tea Party can claim some credit for conservative GOP primary upsets in U.S. Senate races in Kentucky, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and last night in Delaware. The movement can also claim credit for upsets in the New York Gubernatorial primary, and in House races throughout the country.
Perhaps the most visible leader of the Tea Party movement is 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin. Palin, whose brief foray onto the national stage in the 2008 election season made her a favorite of conservatives and drew the ire of liberals, has proven to be a powerhouse during the primary election season. The former Alaska governor, utilizing social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, has endorsed conservative, usually tea-party backed, Republican candidates in races across the country.
Palin's endorsement record started out strong, waned slightly over the summer, and then helped account for two of the biggest upsets in recent political history. First, Palin waded back into Alaska politics by endorsing conservative attorney Joe Miller in his bid to unseat moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski. Miller was the heavy underdog until Election Day, when he ousted Murkowski. Then, Palin endorsed conservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Senate primary. Last night O'Donnell shocked long-time congressman and former Delaware Governor Mike Castle, who is one of the most liberal GOP members of the Congress.
Palin also waded into the contested New Hampshire Senate primary by backing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. This endorsement actually put Palin at odds with many in the tea party movement who preferred Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte appears to have narrowly won the primary, largely due to Palin's endorsement.
The 2010 primary season ends as one of the most unique and entertaining primary seasons in recent memory. In some cases, like in the Delaware Senate race, by veering to the right Republicans probably nominated a candidate who is less likely to win in November. The question to ask yourself is whether this is a bad thing. I think not. If it takes liberal Republicans like Mike Castle to take back Congress, I would rather the Democrats just stay in power. I would rather the Republican Party lose with a conservative on the ballot than win with a liberal on the GOP line.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
September 14 Primaries
Tomorrow is the virtual culmination of 2010 primary season (Hawaii holds its primaries Saturday and Louisiana has some run-off elections scheduled for October 2). New York, New Hampshire, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and Maryland will all hold primary elections to decide the Republican and Democrat nominees in hotly contested races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and Governorships.
This primary-by-primary look will give you an idea of what is at stake tomorrow night and how each of these races fits into November's political landscape.
Governors' Races
(1) Wisconsin Governor - Republican
Conservative Ex-Congressman Mark Neumann and more centrist Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are the top two GOP candidates. They are vying for the right to face Milwaukee Mayor and Ex-Congressman Tom Barrett, who has only token opposition in his primary. Either GOP candidate will enter the general as a very slight favorite in what is sure to be one of the closest gubernatorial races this year.
(2) New Hampshire Governor - Republican
Four GOP candidates are sparring for the right to oppose Democrat Governor John Lynch. Former New Hampshire HHS official and two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate John Stephen recently snagged the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph. Also in the race are State Rep. Frank Emiro, Businessman Jack Kimball, and Religious Right Activist Karen Testerman. Whoever emerges from this four-way primary will face a very steep uphill battle to unseat the popular Lynch.
(3) New York Governor - Republican
The GOP establishment has lined up behind former Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Lazio. However, recent polls have showed tea party favorite Carl Paladino surging. Paladino has trumpeted his outsider status and has vowed to take a sledgehammer to the burgeoning Empire State budget if elected. Neither Lazio nor Paladino have much of a shot at the Governor's Mansion, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be the overwhelming favorite in November.
(4) Rhode Island Governor - Republican
Businessman and former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille is expected to secure the GOP nomination against ex-State Representative Victor Moffitt, although anything is possible in what is sure to be a very light turnout among the Bay State's slim number of Republican voters. The winner will face a tough three-way race against Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee. In a twist that could only happen in a place like Rhode Island, Caprio is widely viewed as the most conservative candidate in the race and Chafee as the most liberal. It will be up to the GOP nominee to attempt to chart a centrist course and somehow garner the 35%-40% that will likely be necessary for the win.
House Races
(1) Maryland 1st District - Republican
Moderates, including former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, have lined up behind IT Consultant and Army Veteran Rob Fisher. Fisher has spent freely, but the favorite here is conservative State Senator Andy Harris. Harris defeated Gilchrest in the GOP primary in 2008, but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil. This is a prime GOP pick-up opportunity in November regardless of which nominee emerges.
(2) New Hampshire 1st District - Republican
A crowded field of 8 GOP candidates are running for the right to face two-term Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who won a surprising election in 2006. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has raised the most money and has the benefit of high name recognition in one the district's largest cities. Businessman Sean Mahoney has spent freely from his own funds. Defense contractor Rich Ashooh has also been competitive. The winner of the primary will enter the general election campaign slightly favored to oust Shea-Porter in November.
(3) New Hampshire 2nd District - Republican
Moderate ex-Congressman Charlie Bass is the favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee in the 2nd. Several candidates, including ex-State Rep. Bob Guida and Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, are running to Bass' right, but the former Congressman's superior fundraising and name recognition should allow him to win the nomination. If Bass does win, he will be favored to retake this open seat.
(4) New Hampshire 2nd District - Democrat
The Democrat primary in this open seat that has been vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes has grown increasingly nasty. Attacks have flown between the camps of attorney Ann McLane Kuster and Political Consultant Katrina Swett to the extent that the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party begged both sides for a ceasefire. The winner of the primary will face a tough campaign to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
(5) Wisconsin 7th District - Republican
District Attorney and former Real World houseguest Sean Duffy has emerged as the overall favorite to take this seat, which has been held for over 40 years by retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey. Duffy will first have to get past the Republican primary, where he is being challenged by 2008 GOP nominee Dan Mielke. Expect Duffy to cruise to an easy victory here. He will be a candidate to watch in November.
(6) Wisconsin 7th District - Democrat
State Senator Julie Lassa is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She faces Realtor Don Raihala in the primary, but her real challenge will be the general election against presumptive GOP nominee Duffy.
(7) New York 19th District - Republican
Conservative ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is the favorite to win the GOP nomination to oppose vulnerable Democratic Rep. John Hall in November. Hayworth is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party Activist Neil DiCarlo. Hayworth has spent freely and should have little trouble securing the GOP nod. The GOP nominee will start out as the underdog, but virtually everyone realizes that Hall is vulnerable.
Sorry to cut this article short, but life intervened and I wasn't able to discuss every important primary before watching the election returns tonight!
This primary-by-primary look will give you an idea of what is at stake tomorrow night and how each of these races fits into November's political landscape.
Governors' Races
(1) Wisconsin Governor - Republican
Conservative Ex-Congressman Mark Neumann and more centrist Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are the top two GOP candidates. They are vying for the right to face Milwaukee Mayor and Ex-Congressman Tom Barrett, who has only token opposition in his primary. Either GOP candidate will enter the general as a very slight favorite in what is sure to be one of the closest gubernatorial races this year.
(2) New Hampshire Governor - Republican
Four GOP candidates are sparring for the right to oppose Democrat Governor John Lynch. Former New Hampshire HHS official and two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate John Stephen recently snagged the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph. Also in the race are State Rep. Frank Emiro, Businessman Jack Kimball, and Religious Right Activist Karen Testerman. Whoever emerges from this four-way primary will face a very steep uphill battle to unseat the popular Lynch.
(3) New York Governor - Republican
The GOP establishment has lined up behind former Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Lazio. However, recent polls have showed tea party favorite Carl Paladino surging. Paladino has trumpeted his outsider status and has vowed to take a sledgehammer to the burgeoning Empire State budget if elected. Neither Lazio nor Paladino have much of a shot at the Governor's Mansion, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be the overwhelming favorite in November.
(4) Rhode Island Governor - Republican
Businessman and former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille is expected to secure the GOP nomination against ex-State Representative Victor Moffitt, although anything is possible in what is sure to be a very light turnout among the Bay State's slim number of Republican voters. The winner will face a tough three-way race against Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee. In a twist that could only happen in a place like Rhode Island, Caprio is widely viewed as the most conservative candidate in the race and Chafee as the most liberal. It will be up to the GOP nominee to attempt to chart a centrist course and somehow garner the 35%-40% that will likely be necessary for the win.
House Races
(1) Maryland 1st District - Republican
Moderates, including former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, have lined up behind IT Consultant and Army Veteran Rob Fisher. Fisher has spent freely, but the favorite here is conservative State Senator Andy Harris. Harris defeated Gilchrest in the GOP primary in 2008, but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil. This is a prime GOP pick-up opportunity in November regardless of which nominee emerges.
(2) New Hampshire 1st District - Republican
A crowded field of 8 GOP candidates are running for the right to face two-term Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who won a surprising election in 2006. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has raised the most money and has the benefit of high name recognition in one the district's largest cities. Businessman Sean Mahoney has spent freely from his own funds. Defense contractor Rich Ashooh has also been competitive. The winner of the primary will enter the general election campaign slightly favored to oust Shea-Porter in November.
(3) New Hampshire 2nd District - Republican
Moderate ex-Congressman Charlie Bass is the favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee in the 2nd. Several candidates, including ex-State Rep. Bob Guida and Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, are running to Bass' right, but the former Congressman's superior fundraising and name recognition should allow him to win the nomination. If Bass does win, he will be favored to retake this open seat.
(4) New Hampshire 2nd District - Democrat
The Democrat primary in this open seat that has been vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes has grown increasingly nasty. Attacks have flown between the camps of attorney Ann McLane Kuster and Political Consultant Katrina Swett to the extent that the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party begged both sides for a ceasefire. The winner of the primary will face a tough campaign to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
(5) Wisconsin 7th District - Republican
District Attorney and former Real World houseguest Sean Duffy has emerged as the overall favorite to take this seat, which has been held for over 40 years by retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey. Duffy will first have to get past the Republican primary, where he is being challenged by 2008 GOP nominee Dan Mielke. Expect Duffy to cruise to an easy victory here. He will be a candidate to watch in November.
(6) Wisconsin 7th District - Democrat
State Senator Julie Lassa is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She faces Realtor Don Raihala in the primary, but her real challenge will be the general election against presumptive GOP nominee Duffy.
(7) New York 19th District - Republican
Conservative ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is the favorite to win the GOP nomination to oppose vulnerable Democratic Rep. John Hall in November. Hayworth is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party Activist Neil DiCarlo. Hayworth has spent freely and should have little trouble securing the GOP nod. The GOP nominee will start out as the underdog, but virtually everyone realizes that Hall is vulnerable.
Sorry to cut this article short, but life intervened and I wasn't able to discuss every important primary before watching the election returns tonight!
Monday, September 13, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Indiana 9th District
For the first time in a decade, an Indiana Democrat will face a new opponent in a battleground district.
Indiana's 9th congressional district takes in the mostly rural southeastern part of the Hoosier State. This part of the state has a southern flavor that stands in stark contrast to the Yankee tendencies of central and northern Indiana. There are two population centers in the 9th. One is in Bloomington, home of Indiana University. The other is in the Louisville, Kentucky suburbs in Clark County, where over 100,000 people live. Most of the 9th is filled with small towns where basketball has been a way of life for several generations.
Southern Indiana has maintained a stubborn Democratic tradition since the Civil War. Most of these counties were sympathetic to the Confederacy and maintained a hostility to all things northern for the next century. There are signs of change. The Clark County suburbs are filling up with affluent professionals who are voting increasingly Republican. Bloomington maintains a liberalism that is typical of most cities centered around a large University. Most of the rural counties, however, are still supportive of culturally conservative Democrats.
The result is a politically divided district. In local and state elections, Democrats traditionally run well in the 9th. However, the 9th generally supports national Republicans. George W. Bush won the 9th easily by a 59%-40% margin in 2004 and John McCain, while losing the state as a whole, defeated Barack Obama in the district 50%-49% in 2008.
Democrat Baron Hill has represented the 9th in the House from his first election in 1998 through 2004 and again since being returned to office in 2006. In four different elections from 2002-2008 the 9th was a battleground between Hill and bus company owner Mike Sodrel. Hill defeated Sodrel with 51% in 2002, but Sodrel turned the tables and ousted Hill in 2004. Hill regained the seat from Sodrel in 2006 and held it easily against Sodrel in 2008.
Hill is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Democrats and has a voting record that puts him near the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Hill supported much of President Obama's agenda, including an unpopular vote in favor of health care reform. Hill opposed TARP, but voted in favor of the Obama stimulus.
Four Republicans, including Sodrel, ran in the May GOP primary. The result was a close three-way election between Sodrel, real estate investor Travis Hankins, and former Marine and Orange County Prosecutor Todd Young. The end result showed that 9th district Republicans were ready for a new standard bearer. Young defeated Hankins by 1,200 votes, Sodrel finished third.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate who served in the Marine Corps. After being honorably discharged, Young received a Masters in politics at the University of London, worked briefly for the Heritage Foundation, and eventually earned his law degree at Indiana University. Prior to running for Congress, Young served as a deputy prosecutor in Orange County.
Hill will enter the final couple months of the campaign with a nearly 5-to-1 cash on hand advantage. Hill is well known to voters, but his history is not without its difficulties (see 2004). In a political environment that is shaping up to be worse for Indiana Democrats than 2004, Hill will really have to scramble to retain his seat. Young is a young and energetic candidate who seems to be good fit for the conservative-leaning district. Early polls have shown Young with a narrow lead. This race is rated as a toss-up by virtually all reputable handicappers. With Indiana's polls closing early (most are closed by 5:00 CST), the results in the 9th will be a good early indication of the types of gains Republicans can expect. If races like the Hill-Young race are breaking toward Republicans, it will be long night for Democrats from coast-to-coast.
Indiana's 9th congressional district takes in the mostly rural southeastern part of the Hoosier State. This part of the state has a southern flavor that stands in stark contrast to the Yankee tendencies of central and northern Indiana. There are two population centers in the 9th. One is in Bloomington, home of Indiana University. The other is in the Louisville, Kentucky suburbs in Clark County, where over 100,000 people live. Most of the 9th is filled with small towns where basketball has been a way of life for several generations.
Southern Indiana has maintained a stubborn Democratic tradition since the Civil War. Most of these counties were sympathetic to the Confederacy and maintained a hostility to all things northern for the next century. There are signs of change. The Clark County suburbs are filling up with affluent professionals who are voting increasingly Republican. Bloomington maintains a liberalism that is typical of most cities centered around a large University. Most of the rural counties, however, are still supportive of culturally conservative Democrats.
The result is a politically divided district. In local and state elections, Democrats traditionally run well in the 9th. However, the 9th generally supports national Republicans. George W. Bush won the 9th easily by a 59%-40% margin in 2004 and John McCain, while losing the state as a whole, defeated Barack Obama in the district 50%-49% in 2008.
Democrat Baron Hill has represented the 9th in the House from his first election in 1998 through 2004 and again since being returned to office in 2006. In four different elections from 2002-2008 the 9th was a battleground between Hill and bus company owner Mike Sodrel. Hill defeated Sodrel with 51% in 2002, but Sodrel turned the tables and ousted Hill in 2004. Hill regained the seat from Sodrel in 2006 and held it easily against Sodrel in 2008.
Hill is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Democrats and has a voting record that puts him near the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Hill supported much of President Obama's agenda, including an unpopular vote in favor of health care reform. Hill opposed TARP, but voted in favor of the Obama stimulus.
Four Republicans, including Sodrel, ran in the May GOP primary. The result was a close three-way election between Sodrel, real estate investor Travis Hankins, and former Marine and Orange County Prosecutor Todd Young. The end result showed that 9th district Republicans were ready for a new standard bearer. Young defeated Hankins by 1,200 votes, Sodrel finished third.
Young is a Naval Academy graduate who served in the Marine Corps. After being honorably discharged, Young received a Masters in politics at the University of London, worked briefly for the Heritage Foundation, and eventually earned his law degree at Indiana University. Prior to running for Congress, Young served as a deputy prosecutor in Orange County.
Hill will enter the final couple months of the campaign with a nearly 5-to-1 cash on hand advantage. Hill is well known to voters, but his history is not without its difficulties (see 2004). In a political environment that is shaping up to be worse for Indiana Democrats than 2004, Hill will really have to scramble to retain his seat. Young is a young and energetic candidate who seems to be good fit for the conservative-leaning district. Early polls have shown Young with a narrow lead. This race is rated as a toss-up by virtually all reputable handicappers. With Indiana's polls closing early (most are closed by 5:00 CST), the results in the 9th will be a good early indication of the types of gains Republicans can expect. If races like the Hill-Young race are breaking toward Republicans, it will be long night for Democrats from coast-to-coast.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Virginia 2nd District
A freshman Democrat who has largely opposed the Obama agenda faces a tough re-election battle in a southeastern Virginia district with a strong military presence.
Virginia's 2nd congressional district takes in all of Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hamption in the southeast corner of the state. It also includes Accomack and Northampton Counties on Virginia's Eastern Shore. The district has a very strong military feel to it. Norfolk is home to the U.S. Navy Atlantic fleet. Virginia Beach is home to four military installations with over 35,000 military and civilian employees. Military veterans comprise over 19% of the district's population.
The 2nd is focused on Virginia Beach and most of the district's population live there. The strong military presence and southern brand of cultural conservatism make this, on the whole, a Republican district. George W. Bush easily carried the 2nd 58%-42% in 2004. However, like Virginia as a whole, the 2nd took a sharp turn toward the Democrats in 2008. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district, which has a sizable African-American population, 51%-49%.
A beneficiary of the strong Obama efforts in Virginia was freshman Democratic Representative Glenn Nye. Nye, a former State Department official, waged an aggressive campaign against Republican Rep. Thelma Drake and, riding the Democratic wave, defeated the incumbent 52%-47%.
In the House, Nye earned a coveted seat on the House Armed Services Committee. In keeping with the conservative feel of his district, Nye opposed many of the signature pieces of Obama's agenda including health care reform, cap and trade, and the federal budget. According to a non-partisan analysis of Nye's voting record, he bucked his party more often than all but 8 Democrat House members.
Nye's political independence has not insulated him from a tough GOP challenge in November. The six-way June Republican primary was won by Scott Rigell, a car dealership owner who had never run for political office. Rigell is running as a Washington outsider and has vowed to be available to his constituents at all times. To this end, Rigell has even posted his home phone number on his campaign website.
Both candidates have raised significant sums of money, but Nye will have a cash on hand advantage heading into the general election as Rigell spent freely to win the GOP primary. Rigell will be able to dig into his own pockets and both national parties are planning to spend in the 2nd.
Nye's independence from national Democrats will certainly be an asset in a challenging political environment. This race is sure to be one of the closest in the country and the outcome will go a long way to determining which party holds the House majority come next January.
Virginia's 2nd congressional district takes in all of Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hamption in the southeast corner of the state. It also includes Accomack and Northampton Counties on Virginia's Eastern Shore. The district has a very strong military feel to it. Norfolk is home to the U.S. Navy Atlantic fleet. Virginia Beach is home to four military installations with over 35,000 military and civilian employees. Military veterans comprise over 19% of the district's population.
The 2nd is focused on Virginia Beach and most of the district's population live there. The strong military presence and southern brand of cultural conservatism make this, on the whole, a Republican district. George W. Bush easily carried the 2nd 58%-42% in 2004. However, like Virginia as a whole, the 2nd took a sharp turn toward the Democrats in 2008. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district, which has a sizable African-American population, 51%-49%.
A beneficiary of the strong Obama efforts in Virginia was freshman Democratic Representative Glenn Nye. Nye, a former State Department official, waged an aggressive campaign against Republican Rep. Thelma Drake and, riding the Democratic wave, defeated the incumbent 52%-47%.
In the House, Nye earned a coveted seat on the House Armed Services Committee. In keeping with the conservative feel of his district, Nye opposed many of the signature pieces of Obama's agenda including health care reform, cap and trade, and the federal budget. According to a non-partisan analysis of Nye's voting record, he bucked his party more often than all but 8 Democrat House members.
Nye's political independence has not insulated him from a tough GOP challenge in November. The six-way June Republican primary was won by Scott Rigell, a car dealership owner who had never run for political office. Rigell is running as a Washington outsider and has vowed to be available to his constituents at all times. To this end, Rigell has even posted his home phone number on his campaign website.
Both candidates have raised significant sums of money, but Nye will have a cash on hand advantage heading into the general election as Rigell spent freely to win the GOP primary. Rigell will be able to dig into his own pockets and both national parties are planning to spend in the 2nd.
Nye's independence from national Democrats will certainly be an asset in a challenging political environment. This race is sure to be one of the closest in the country and the outcome will go a long way to determining which party holds the House majority come next January.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - New York 24th District
A rematch in a different political environment could result in an upstate New York district turning from blue to red in November.
New York's 24th district is a J-shaped cluster of mostly rural counties in upstate New York. The largest cities in the district are in Oneida County, Utica and Rome. Most of the counties in the 24th have been steadily declining in population. As a whole, the 24th's population has declined by nearly 1% since 2000. Redistricting will likely take a toll on this district. Parts of the district have entered into the national consciousness: Cooperstown, in Otsego County, is the home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Oneida is home to a world-famous stainless steel factory, and the Turning Stone Resort is home to a bustling tourism industry.
This upstate region was historically a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, the 24th has moved perceptibly toward the Democrats. George W. Bush narrowly carried the 24th in 2004, but Barack Obama won the district 50%-48% in 2008.
In 2006, while New York Democrats were winning virtually everything in sight, the 24th elected moderate Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri to the House. Arcuri has a moderate voting record and, in an unusual move for a northern Democrat, joined the Blue Dogs.
In 2008, Arcuri was challenged by wealthy construction company owner Richard Hanna. Hanna ran as a moderate and spent freely from his personal fortune. Arcuri later admitted that he did not take Hanna seriously until late in the campaign. The result was a surprisingly close election with the winner not being officially declared until all absentee ballots were counted. Arcuri survived 52%-48%.
In the 111th Congress, Arcuri voted in favor the Obama health care package and for the Obama stimulus. He showed some independence by voting against the cap and trade legislation.
Hanna is back for a second shot at Arcuri this November. Both candidates are unopposed for their parties' nominations in the September 14 primary. This time, Arcuri is on notice of the serious threat that Hanna presents. Hanna has proved to be a serious fundraiser and enters the stretch run on a financial par with the incumbent.
This race is one of five or six Democratic-held New York seats that are in play in November. It will be interesting to see how the non-competitive statewide races (Democrats are heavily favored to win both Senate seats and the Governor's race) will or will not impact these down ballot races. At present, Arcuri is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the New York delegation. Hanna will only have to slightly improve his 2008 showing to defeat Arcuri, and 2010 is almost certain to be a much more favorable environment for Republicans throughout the country. How Hanna fares this time around will be a good gauge of how different this year's political landscape is from 2008.
New York's 24th district is a J-shaped cluster of mostly rural counties in upstate New York. The largest cities in the district are in Oneida County, Utica and Rome. Most of the counties in the 24th have been steadily declining in population. As a whole, the 24th's population has declined by nearly 1% since 2000. Redistricting will likely take a toll on this district. Parts of the district have entered into the national consciousness: Cooperstown, in Otsego County, is the home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Oneida is home to a world-famous stainless steel factory, and the Turning Stone Resort is home to a bustling tourism industry.
This upstate region was historically a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, the 24th has moved perceptibly toward the Democrats. George W. Bush narrowly carried the 24th in 2004, but Barack Obama won the district 50%-48% in 2008.
In 2006, while New York Democrats were winning virtually everything in sight, the 24th elected moderate Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri to the House. Arcuri has a moderate voting record and, in an unusual move for a northern Democrat, joined the Blue Dogs.
In 2008, Arcuri was challenged by wealthy construction company owner Richard Hanna. Hanna ran as a moderate and spent freely from his personal fortune. Arcuri later admitted that he did not take Hanna seriously until late in the campaign. The result was a surprisingly close election with the winner not being officially declared until all absentee ballots were counted. Arcuri survived 52%-48%.
In the 111th Congress, Arcuri voted in favor the Obama health care package and for the Obama stimulus. He showed some independence by voting against the cap and trade legislation.
Hanna is back for a second shot at Arcuri this November. Both candidates are unopposed for their parties' nominations in the September 14 primary. This time, Arcuri is on notice of the serious threat that Hanna presents. Hanna has proved to be a serious fundraiser and enters the stretch run on a financial par with the incumbent.
This race is one of five or six Democratic-held New York seats that are in play in November. It will be interesting to see how the non-competitive statewide races (Democrats are heavily favored to win both Senate seats and the Governor's race) will or will not impact these down ballot races. At present, Arcuri is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the New York delegation. Hanna will only have to slightly improve his 2008 showing to defeat Arcuri, and 2010 is almost certain to be a much more favorable environment for Republicans throughout the country. How Hanna fares this time around will be a good gauge of how different this year's political landscape is from 2008.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Florida 2nd District
An influential Blue Dog Democrat will face his second tough test of 2010 to retain his northern Florida seat.
Florida's 2nd district is made up of a mixture of inland and oceanside counties in the eastern part of the Florida panhandle. Over 40% of the 2nd's population resides in Leon County, which includes the state capital of Tallahassee. The 2nd also includes resort areas along the Gulf Coast, including Panama City and Panama City Beach. The African-American percentage in the district is 22%.
Tallahassee, with its multitude of government employees, usually supports Democrats. The district's high percentage of African-Americans also vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The resort towns along the coast are mostly Republican. Many of the rural counties are, like most of the South, historically Democratic, but in recent years they have become more friendly to Republicans. The result is a closely divided district. George W. Bush twice carried this area and John McCain performed much better here than he did in the other parts of Florida, beating Barack Obama 54%-45% in the 2nd.
Since 1996, the 2nd has been represented by moderate Democrat Allen Boyd. Boyd, a farmer from Jefferson County, has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has been an active member of the House Blue Dogs, a group of moderate-to-conservative southern Democrats. Boyd has earned the ire of Democrat Party leaders for his willingness to buck the party line and vote with Republicans. Boyd holds seats on the powerful Appropriations and Budget Committees.
In the 111th Congress, Boyd made news by original opposing Obama's health care bill, but in March switching to support the legislation. Boyd also angered many in the 2nd when he voted in support of the cap and trade legislation.
Boyd's moderate views have long put him at odds with 2nd district liberals and this culminated in a fierce primary battle this August. Boyd was challenged by liberal African-American State Senator Al Lawson who criticized Boyd for his moderate voting record. Boyd countered by touting his support for the Obama stimulus bill, climate change legislation, and the health care reform bill. Ultimately, Boyd narrowly survived 51%-49% to move on to the November general election.
Five Republicans ran in the GOP primary. The clear winner, with over 48% of the vote, was Panama City Funeral Home Owner Steve Southerland. Southerland had long been active in local civic groups, but this is his first foray into politics. Southerland is hoping to capitalize on the anti-Washington mood of many voters in the district as well as voter discontent with Boyd's moves to the left in the Democratic primary.
Despite having to spend nearly $1 million during the Democratic primary, Boyd will enter the stretch run with a large cash on hand advantage over Southerland. Boyd's camp is claiming that the tough election (the primary) is over and that he will roll to re-election in November. However, this race is listed as a toss-up by nearly every political handicapper (Rothenberg actually has this race rated "Tilt Republican"). Boyd has never had a serious Republican challenger in his congressional career. If a GOP wave builds, there is a good chance it will sweep Southerland into office.
Florida's 2nd district is made up of a mixture of inland and oceanside counties in the eastern part of the Florida panhandle. Over 40% of the 2nd's population resides in Leon County, which includes the state capital of Tallahassee. The 2nd also includes resort areas along the Gulf Coast, including Panama City and Panama City Beach. The African-American percentage in the district is 22%.
Tallahassee, with its multitude of government employees, usually supports Democrats. The district's high percentage of African-Americans also vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The resort towns along the coast are mostly Republican. Many of the rural counties are, like most of the South, historically Democratic, but in recent years they have become more friendly to Republicans. The result is a closely divided district. George W. Bush twice carried this area and John McCain performed much better here than he did in the other parts of Florida, beating Barack Obama 54%-45% in the 2nd.
Since 1996, the 2nd has been represented by moderate Democrat Allen Boyd. Boyd, a farmer from Jefferson County, has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has been an active member of the House Blue Dogs, a group of moderate-to-conservative southern Democrats. Boyd has earned the ire of Democrat Party leaders for his willingness to buck the party line and vote with Republicans. Boyd holds seats on the powerful Appropriations and Budget Committees.
In the 111th Congress, Boyd made news by original opposing Obama's health care bill, but in March switching to support the legislation. Boyd also angered many in the 2nd when he voted in support of the cap and trade legislation.
Boyd's moderate views have long put him at odds with 2nd district liberals and this culminated in a fierce primary battle this August. Boyd was challenged by liberal African-American State Senator Al Lawson who criticized Boyd for his moderate voting record. Boyd countered by touting his support for the Obama stimulus bill, climate change legislation, and the health care reform bill. Ultimately, Boyd narrowly survived 51%-49% to move on to the November general election.
Five Republicans ran in the GOP primary. The clear winner, with over 48% of the vote, was Panama City Funeral Home Owner Steve Southerland. Southerland had long been active in local civic groups, but this is his first foray into politics. Southerland is hoping to capitalize on the anti-Washington mood of many voters in the district as well as voter discontent with Boyd's moves to the left in the Democratic primary.
Despite having to spend nearly $1 million during the Democratic primary, Boyd will enter the stretch run with a large cash on hand advantage over Southerland. Boyd's camp is claiming that the tough election (the primary) is over and that he will roll to re-election in November. However, this race is listed as a toss-up by nearly every political handicapper (Rothenberg actually has this race rated "Tilt Republican"). Boyd has never had a serious Republican challenger in his congressional career. If a GOP wave builds, there is a good chance it will sweep Southerland into office.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - South Dakota's At-Large District
South Dakota will be the site of one of the most fiercely competitive House races in the country this November.
South Dakota has had only one congressional district since it lost its second district after the 1990 census results. The state's population growth has been slow in recent decades and it is not expected to top 800,000 in the 2010 census. Sioux Falls, in the southeast part of the state, is South Dakota's largest city with a population nearing 150,000. Over half of South Dakotans live in areas classified by the Census Bureau as urban, certainly a change from most of the state's history.
Traditionally, South Dakota politics has been mostly Republican, although it is open to Democrats, especially in tough economic times. It has also been home to national Democratic leaders in George McGovern and Tom Daschle. The cultural liberalism of the most recent Democratic Presidential nominees has led South Dakota to support national Republicans, twice voting for George W. Bush (by 60%-38% in 2004) and favoring John McCain in 2008 by the narrower margin of 53%-45%.
Since 2004, South Dakota's lone house seat has been represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Originally elected as Stephanie Herseth in a 2004 special election to fill the term of Congressman Bill Janklow, the congresswoman married former Texas Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin in 2007.
Telegenic and hailing from a well-known South Dakota political family, Herseth Sandlin has compiled a moderate voting record on most issues. She is a top-ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee and she holds a subcommittee chairmanship on the Veterans' Affairs Committee, both valuable spots for any South Dakota representative. After two narrow victories in the 2004 special election and general election, she won easily in 2006 and 2008.
In the 111th Congress, Herseth Sandlin has continued to show her independence from her party. She opposed the Obama health care package as well as the cap and trade legislation.
With 2010 shaping up to be a very strong year for South Dakota Republicans and with President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi very unpopular in the state, Herseth Sandlin is a GOP target. Three Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to challenge Herseth Sandlin in November. State Representatives Kristi Noem, from Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota, and Blake Curd, a doctor from Sioux Falls, spent and raised large sums of money to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson spent very little. In the end, Noem prevailed with 42%. Nelson finished second with 35% and Curd, despite outspending both opponents, trailed with 23% of the vote.
Noem, who serves as Assistant Majority Leader in the South Dakota House, is a rancher and mother of three. She is campaigning as a cultural and economic conservative. She is attempting to tie Herseth Sandlin to the unpopular Pelosi and Obama.
Herseth Sandlin enters the final few weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage, but outside spending by interest groups and the national parties will also have a major impact. Rasmussen's polling on this race has been all over the place, with polls in March and April showing Herseth Sandlin leading comfortably and summer polls showing Noem taking a large lead. The most recent Rasmussen poll is probably the most accurate; it shows Herseth Sandlin leading 47%-45%, well within the margin of error.
Herseth Sandlin has a record that may allow her to prove to South Dakota voters that she is no Pelosi clone. However, the popular congresswoman has never run in such a poisonous political environment for Democrats. Noem is an energetic and telegenic candidate who is certainly capable of knocking off Herseth Sandlin. This is a true toss-up race at this point, with no clear favorite. If I had to make a pick right now, I would give Noem a very, very slight edge. Republicans will need to win here and in neighboring North Dakota's At-Large district if they have any inclinations of winning a House majority.
South Dakota has had only one congressional district since it lost its second district after the 1990 census results. The state's population growth has been slow in recent decades and it is not expected to top 800,000 in the 2010 census. Sioux Falls, in the southeast part of the state, is South Dakota's largest city with a population nearing 150,000. Over half of South Dakotans live in areas classified by the Census Bureau as urban, certainly a change from most of the state's history.
Traditionally, South Dakota politics has been mostly Republican, although it is open to Democrats, especially in tough economic times. It has also been home to national Democratic leaders in George McGovern and Tom Daschle. The cultural liberalism of the most recent Democratic Presidential nominees has led South Dakota to support national Republicans, twice voting for George W. Bush (by 60%-38% in 2004) and favoring John McCain in 2008 by the narrower margin of 53%-45%.
Since 2004, South Dakota's lone house seat has been represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Originally elected as Stephanie Herseth in a 2004 special election to fill the term of Congressman Bill Janklow, the congresswoman married former Texas Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin in 2007.
Telegenic and hailing from a well-known South Dakota political family, Herseth Sandlin has compiled a moderate voting record on most issues. She is a top-ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee and she holds a subcommittee chairmanship on the Veterans' Affairs Committee, both valuable spots for any South Dakota representative. After two narrow victories in the 2004 special election and general election, she won easily in 2006 and 2008.
In the 111th Congress, Herseth Sandlin has continued to show her independence from her party. She opposed the Obama health care package as well as the cap and trade legislation.
With 2010 shaping up to be a very strong year for South Dakota Republicans and with President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi very unpopular in the state, Herseth Sandlin is a GOP target. Three Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to challenge Herseth Sandlin in November. State Representatives Kristi Noem, from Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota, and Blake Curd, a doctor from Sioux Falls, spent and raised large sums of money to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson spent very little. In the end, Noem prevailed with 42%. Nelson finished second with 35% and Curd, despite outspending both opponents, trailed with 23% of the vote.
Noem, who serves as Assistant Majority Leader in the South Dakota House, is a rancher and mother of three. She is campaigning as a cultural and economic conservative. She is attempting to tie Herseth Sandlin to the unpopular Pelosi and Obama.
Herseth Sandlin enters the final few weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage, but outside spending by interest groups and the national parties will also have a major impact. Rasmussen's polling on this race has been all over the place, with polls in March and April showing Herseth Sandlin leading comfortably and summer polls showing Noem taking a large lead. The most recent Rasmussen poll is probably the most accurate; it shows Herseth Sandlin leading 47%-45%, well within the margin of error.
Herseth Sandlin has a record that may allow her to prove to South Dakota voters that she is no Pelosi clone. However, the popular congresswoman has never run in such a poisonous political environment for Democrats. Noem is an energetic and telegenic candidate who is certainly capable of knocking off Herseth Sandlin. This is a true toss-up race at this point, with no clear favorite. If I had to make a pick right now, I would give Noem a very, very slight edge. Republicans will need to win here and in neighboring North Dakota's At-Large district if they have any inclinations of winning a House majority.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Pennsylvania 7th District
The Philadelphia suburbs will play host to one of the most competitive open seat contests of the 2010 election cycle.
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district includes almost all of suburban Delaware County as well as slivers of Montgomery and Chester counties. Over 70% of the district's population resides in Delaware County, just to the west of Philadelphia. This suburban district is older and more well-established than many suburban districts in the country.
These relatively affluent slices of suburbia were long favorable to Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan. Delaware County favored GOP Presidential candidates in nearly every election from 1856 to 1988. As Philadelphians have moved out into the suburbs and the Republican Party has moved toward social conservatism, these Philly suburbs have turned toward the Democrat Party. George W. Bush lost this district 53%-47% in 2004 and Barack Obama carried the 7th resoundingly 56%-43% in 2008.
The Democratic tilt of the 7th's Philadelphia suburbs resulted in the ouster of 20-year GOP incumbent Curt Weldon by Democrat Joe Sestak in 2006. Sestak, a retired three-star Navy admiral with a moderate voting record, easily won re-election in 2008 and seemed well-positioned to hold the seat indefinitely. In August 2009, to the surprise of most political observers, Sestak announced that he would challenge party-switching Democrat Senator Arlen Specter in the May 2010 Democratic Primary. Sestak, despite the opposition of the Obama White House, defeated Specter and now faces Republican Pat Toomey in the November general election.
Sestak's surprise decision to forego re-election in the 7th left an open seat contest in a competitive district. Both parties were able to avoid intraparty squabbles and nominated their respective candidates without primary competition.
The Democrat's standard bearer is Bryan Lentz. Lentz is a retired Army veteran, former prosecuting attorney, and two-term member of the Pennsylvania State House. Lentz is running on a moderate platform and is emphasizing his status as a Washington outsider.
The Republican nominee is U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Meehan is well-known in the 7th as a tough prosecutor who often goes toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia political establishment. He is running as a fiscal conservative.
The increasingly Democratic nature of this district makes it a difficult seat for the GOP to win. However, Meehan has outraised Lentz and has, thus far, proven to be one of the strongest Republican House candidates in the country. To win, Meehan will have to appeal to moderates in the 7th, who have increasingly been voting Democratic. He seems to have the personality and political stances to make this across the aisle pitch. Republicans are bullish on Meehan's chances to return this district to the Republican column and he enters the home stretch as the slight favorite.
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district includes almost all of suburban Delaware County as well as slivers of Montgomery and Chester counties. Over 70% of the district's population resides in Delaware County, just to the west of Philadelphia. This suburban district is older and more well-established than many suburban districts in the country.
These relatively affluent slices of suburbia were long favorable to Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan. Delaware County favored GOP Presidential candidates in nearly every election from 1856 to 1988. As Philadelphians have moved out into the suburbs and the Republican Party has moved toward social conservatism, these Philly suburbs have turned toward the Democrat Party. George W. Bush lost this district 53%-47% in 2004 and Barack Obama carried the 7th resoundingly 56%-43% in 2008.
The Democratic tilt of the 7th's Philadelphia suburbs resulted in the ouster of 20-year GOP incumbent Curt Weldon by Democrat Joe Sestak in 2006. Sestak, a retired three-star Navy admiral with a moderate voting record, easily won re-election in 2008 and seemed well-positioned to hold the seat indefinitely. In August 2009, to the surprise of most political observers, Sestak announced that he would challenge party-switching Democrat Senator Arlen Specter in the May 2010 Democratic Primary. Sestak, despite the opposition of the Obama White House, defeated Specter and now faces Republican Pat Toomey in the November general election.
Sestak's surprise decision to forego re-election in the 7th left an open seat contest in a competitive district. Both parties were able to avoid intraparty squabbles and nominated their respective candidates without primary competition.
The Democrat's standard bearer is Bryan Lentz. Lentz is a retired Army veteran, former prosecuting attorney, and two-term member of the Pennsylvania State House. Lentz is running on a moderate platform and is emphasizing his status as a Washington outsider.
The Republican nominee is U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Meehan is well-known in the 7th as a tough prosecutor who often goes toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia political establishment. He is running as a fiscal conservative.
The increasingly Democratic nature of this district makes it a difficult seat for the GOP to win. However, Meehan has outraised Lentz and has, thus far, proven to be one of the strongest Republican House candidates in the country. To win, Meehan will have to appeal to moderates in the 7th, who have increasingly been voting Democratic. He seems to have the personality and political stances to make this across the aisle pitch. Republicans are bullish on Meehan's chances to return this district to the Republican column and he enters the home stretch as the slight favorite.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Ohio 16th District
Another freshman Democratic who rode the Obama wave of 2008 to a decisive victory is facing an uphill re-election battle.
Ohio's 16th district is an inverted T-shaped collection of counties just south of Cleveland in northeast Ohio. The population center of the district is in Canton, once a bustling industrial city that was home to President William McKinley, now an economically struggling city best known as the home of the Professional Football Hall of Fame. The 16th also includes fast-growing and affluent Cleveland suburbs in Medina County.
On the whole this is a Republican district, voting twice for George W. Bush and more narrowly for John McCain in 2008. For 36 years until 2008, this area sent Republican Ralph Regula to Congress. Canton's Stark County is the most reliably Democratic part of the district in most elections today.
The 2008 open seat contest to succeed Regula drew the interest of both national parties. The Democratic nominee was State Senator John Boccieri, an Air Force reservist who served in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Boccieri campaigned as a moderate and outraised his Republican foe, fellow State Senator Kirk Schuring. Boccieri won the long-time Republican district 55%-45%, losing in only one of the district's counties.
During his first term, Boccieri supported the Obama stimulus package and the controversial cap and trade legislation. After initially opposing Obama's health care bill, in March Boccieri announced that he would vote to support the final bill. At the time of his 11th hour conversion, Boccieri stated, "I'm not worried about the election. I'm worried about doing what's right."
Boccieri's last minute change of heart did not sit well with 16th district conservatives and Boccieri became a major GOP target. Four Republicans ran in the May GOP primary. In a tight race, businessman and Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci defeated Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller by a margin of 6,000 votes.
Renacci is running on conservative principles and is hammering Boccieri for his support of the unpopular Obama agenda. The race has turned negative with Boccieri making an issue of various lawsuits filed both by Renacci and his companies and against Renacci and his companies. The two candidates are on a nearly equal financial playing field and Renacci has deep pockets to reach into should the need arise. A recently released GOP poll showed Boccieri trailing 49%-35% among likely voters, an extremely weak showing for any incumbent.
2010 is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in the Buckeye State, with Republican candidates consistently leading in polls in the Ohio Governor's race and the Ohio Senate race. With the top of his ticket dragging him down and the historic preference of this region's voters for the GOP, Boccieri appears to be quite vulnerable in November.
Ohio's 16th district is an inverted T-shaped collection of counties just south of Cleveland in northeast Ohio. The population center of the district is in Canton, once a bustling industrial city that was home to President William McKinley, now an economically struggling city best known as the home of the Professional Football Hall of Fame. The 16th also includes fast-growing and affluent Cleveland suburbs in Medina County.
On the whole this is a Republican district, voting twice for George W. Bush and more narrowly for John McCain in 2008. For 36 years until 2008, this area sent Republican Ralph Regula to Congress. Canton's Stark County is the most reliably Democratic part of the district in most elections today.
The 2008 open seat contest to succeed Regula drew the interest of both national parties. The Democratic nominee was State Senator John Boccieri, an Air Force reservist who served in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Boccieri campaigned as a moderate and outraised his Republican foe, fellow State Senator Kirk Schuring. Boccieri won the long-time Republican district 55%-45%, losing in only one of the district's counties.
During his first term, Boccieri supported the Obama stimulus package and the controversial cap and trade legislation. After initially opposing Obama's health care bill, in March Boccieri announced that he would vote to support the final bill. At the time of his 11th hour conversion, Boccieri stated, "I'm not worried about the election. I'm worried about doing what's right."
Boccieri's last minute change of heart did not sit well with 16th district conservatives and Boccieri became a major GOP target. Four Republicans ran in the May GOP primary. In a tight race, businessman and Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci defeated Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller by a margin of 6,000 votes.
Renacci is running on conservative principles and is hammering Boccieri for his support of the unpopular Obama agenda. The race has turned negative with Boccieri making an issue of various lawsuits filed both by Renacci and his companies and against Renacci and his companies. The two candidates are on a nearly equal financial playing field and Renacci has deep pockets to reach into should the need arise. A recently released GOP poll showed Boccieri trailing 49%-35% among likely voters, an extremely weak showing for any incumbent.
2010 is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in the Buckeye State, with Republican candidates consistently leading in polls in the Ohio Governor's race and the Ohio Senate race. With the top of his ticket dragging him down and the historic preference of this region's voters for the GOP, Boccieri appears to be quite vulnerable in November.
50 Most Vulnerable U.S. House Incumbents
In my U.S. House Race Spotlight series, I have been chronicling competitive U.S. House races that will determine whether the House maintains a Democratic majority or whether Republicans can win a net gain of 39 seats and become the majority party. The Republican roadmap for winning the House involves winning open seats where the incumbent is not on the ballot, defeating Democratic incumbents, and re-electing the few Republican incumbents who are in danger this year.
The following is a list of the 50 incumbent House representatives who are most likely to lose their seats in November. For each incumbent I have included the percentage chance of their losing in November.
(1) Joseph Cao (R) LA-2
Chance of losing: 79%
(2) Frank Kratovil (D) MD-1
Chance of losing: 65%
(3) Harry Teague (D) NM-2
Chance of losing: 65%
(4) Steve Driehaus (D) OH-1
Chance of losing: 65%
(5) Mary Jo Kilroy (D) OH-15
Chance of losing: 65%
(6) Betsy Markey (D) CO-4
Chance of losing: 63%
(7) Suzanne Kosmas (D) FL-24
Chance of losing: 63%
(8) Travis Childers (D) MS-1
Chance of losing: 62%
(9) Earl Pomeroy (D) ND-AL
Chance of losing: 62%
(10) Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH-1
Chance of losing: 62%
(11) Charles Djou (R) HI-1
Chance of losing: 60%
(12) Debbie Halvorson (D) IL-11
Chance of losing: 60%
(13) Chet Edwards (D) TX-17
Chance of losing: 60%
(14) Alan Grayson (D) FL-8
Chance of losing: 57%
(15) Dina Titus (D) NV-3
Chance of losing: 57%
(16) Paul Kanjorski (D) PA-11
Chance of losing: 57%
(17) Tom Perriello (D) VA-5
Chance of losing: 57%
(18) Mark Schauer (D) MI-7
Chance of losing: 55%
(19) John Boccieri (D) OH-16
Chance of losing: 55%
(20) Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) SD-AL
Chance of losing: 53%
(21) Allen Boyd (D) FL-2
Chance of losing: 52%
(22) Mike Arcuri (D) NY-24
Chance of losing: 52%
(23) Glenn Nye (D) VA-2
Chance of losing: 52%
(24) Baron Hill (D) IN-9
Chance of losing: 50%
(25) John Spratt (D) SC-5
Chance of losing: 50%
(26) Bill Foster (D) IL-14
Chance of losing: 48%
(27) Kathy Dahlkemper (D) PA-3
Chance of losing: 47%
(28) Larry Kissell (D) NC-8
Chance of losing: 45%
(29) Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ-1
Chance of losing: 42%
(30) Bobby Bright (D) AL-2
Chance of losing: 40%
(31) Harry Mitchell (D) AZ-5
Chance of losing: 38%
(32) Jerry McNerney (D) CA-11
Chance of losing: 38%
(33) Jim Marshall (D) GA-8
Chance of losing: 38%
(34) John Hall (D) NY-19
Chance of losing: 38%
(35) Chris Carney (D) PA-10
Chance of losing: 38%
(36) Patrick Murphy (D) PA-8
Chance of losing: 37%
(37) Gabrielle Giffords (D) AZ-8
Chance of losing: 35%
(38) Leonard Boswell (D) IA-3
Chance of losing: 35%
(39) Zach Space (D) OH-18
Chance of losing: 35%
(40) Ciro Rodriguez (D) TX-23
Chance of losing: 35%
(41) Steve Kagen (D) WI-8
Chance of losing: 35%
(42) Walt Minnick (D) ID-1
Chance of losing: 30%
(43) Ike Skelton (D) MO-4
Chance of losing: 30%
(44) Martin Heinrich (D) NM-1
Chance of losing: 30%
(45) Betty Sutton (D) OH-13
Chance of losing: 30%
(46) Rick Boucher (D) VA-9
Chance of losing: 30%
(47) John Salazar (D) CO-3
Chance of losing: 27%
(48) Tim Bishop (D) NY-1
Chance of losing: 27%
(49) Scott Murphy (D) NY-20
Chance of losing: 27%
(50) Bill Owens (D) NY-23
Chance of losing: 27%
The following is a list of the 50 incumbent House representatives who are most likely to lose their seats in November. For each incumbent I have included the percentage chance of their losing in November.
(1) Joseph Cao (R) LA-2
Chance of losing: 79%
(2) Frank Kratovil (D) MD-1
Chance of losing: 65%
(3) Harry Teague (D) NM-2
Chance of losing: 65%
(4) Steve Driehaus (D) OH-1
Chance of losing: 65%
(5) Mary Jo Kilroy (D) OH-15
Chance of losing: 65%
(6) Betsy Markey (D) CO-4
Chance of losing: 63%
(7) Suzanne Kosmas (D) FL-24
Chance of losing: 63%
(8) Travis Childers (D) MS-1
Chance of losing: 62%
(9) Earl Pomeroy (D) ND-AL
Chance of losing: 62%
(10) Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH-1
Chance of losing: 62%
(11) Charles Djou (R) HI-1
Chance of losing: 60%
(12) Debbie Halvorson (D) IL-11
Chance of losing: 60%
(13) Chet Edwards (D) TX-17
Chance of losing: 60%
(14) Alan Grayson (D) FL-8
Chance of losing: 57%
(15) Dina Titus (D) NV-3
Chance of losing: 57%
(16) Paul Kanjorski (D) PA-11
Chance of losing: 57%
(17) Tom Perriello (D) VA-5
Chance of losing: 57%
(18) Mark Schauer (D) MI-7
Chance of losing: 55%
(19) John Boccieri (D) OH-16
Chance of losing: 55%
(20) Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) SD-AL
Chance of losing: 53%
(21) Allen Boyd (D) FL-2
Chance of losing: 52%
(22) Mike Arcuri (D) NY-24
Chance of losing: 52%
(23) Glenn Nye (D) VA-2
Chance of losing: 52%
(24) Baron Hill (D) IN-9
Chance of losing: 50%
(25) John Spratt (D) SC-5
Chance of losing: 50%
(26) Bill Foster (D) IL-14
Chance of losing: 48%
(27) Kathy Dahlkemper (D) PA-3
Chance of losing: 47%
(28) Larry Kissell (D) NC-8
Chance of losing: 45%
(29) Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ-1
Chance of losing: 42%
(30) Bobby Bright (D) AL-2
Chance of losing: 40%
(31) Harry Mitchell (D) AZ-5
Chance of losing: 38%
(32) Jerry McNerney (D) CA-11
Chance of losing: 38%
(33) Jim Marshall (D) GA-8
Chance of losing: 38%
(34) John Hall (D) NY-19
Chance of losing: 38%
(35) Chris Carney (D) PA-10
Chance of losing: 38%
(36) Patrick Murphy (D) PA-8
Chance of losing: 37%
(37) Gabrielle Giffords (D) AZ-8
Chance of losing: 35%
(38) Leonard Boswell (D) IA-3
Chance of losing: 35%
(39) Zach Space (D) OH-18
Chance of losing: 35%
(40) Ciro Rodriguez (D) TX-23
Chance of losing: 35%
(41) Steve Kagen (D) WI-8
Chance of losing: 35%
(42) Walt Minnick (D) ID-1
Chance of losing: 30%
(43) Ike Skelton (D) MO-4
Chance of losing: 30%
(44) Martin Heinrich (D) NM-1
Chance of losing: 30%
(45) Betty Sutton (D) OH-13
Chance of losing: 30%
(46) Rick Boucher (D) VA-9
Chance of losing: 30%
(47) John Salazar (D) CO-3
Chance of losing: 27%
(48) Tim Bishop (D) NY-1
Chance of losing: 27%
(49) Scott Murphy (D) NY-20
Chance of losing: 27%
(50) Bill Owens (D) NY-23
Chance of losing: 27%
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Michigan 7th District
Michigan's 7th district, which includes the birthplace of the Republican Party, will be a fiercely contested district with national implications come November.
The 7th encompasses south central Michigan. Jackson County, which has been hard hit by the recent economic downturn, is where a group of anti-slavery agitators met and created the Republican Party in 1854. Also in the 7th is Battle Creek, the home base of Kellogg's Cereal. Conservative Hillsdale College is also here.
South central Michigan voted heavily Republican from the Civil War through the New Deal and well into the late 20th century. However, around the 1970s, the area shifted slightly toward the Democrats as the national Republican party grew increasingly southern-oriented. However, the undercurrents of historical conservatism have mostly kept the district in the GOP column. George W. Bush carried this area twice, but Barack Obama won the 7th 52%-47% in 2008.
The 7th has elected four different congressmen in the last 4 elections. In 2006, moderate Republican Representative Joe Schwarz was defeated in the GOP primary by conservative Tim Walberg. Democrats, thinking Schwarz would be the nominee, nominated a weak candidate and Walberg managed a narrow victory in a tough year for Republicans.
In 2008, Democrats vowed to target Walberg, who they believed was too conservative for this district. Democrats lined up behind State Senate Majority Leader Mark Schauer. Schauer, who had first been elected to the Michigan legislature in 1996, campaigned as a moderate, stressing the importance of his family and faith. Schauer outraised Walberg and won the backing of influential moderates, including Schwarz. The end result was a 49%-46% Schauer victory.
During his first term, Schauer has been a strong supporter of most of the Obama agenda. He cast votes in favor of the health care reform bill, cap and trade, and the Obama stimulus proposal. Schauer was a strong backer of the automobile industry bailout.
Schauer's small winning percentage, his lack of tenure, the closely-divided nature of the 7th district, and a political environment favoring the GOP have made Schauer one of the most vulnerable House incumbents in 2010.
Three Republicans filed to run for the right to take on Schauer in November. The campaign developed into a battle between two candidates, Walberg and Brian Rooney, an Iraq War Veteran. Rooney is the grandson of famous Pittsburgh Steelers' owner Art Rooney. Rooney received the endorsement of Schwarz even though he campaigned as a constitutional conservative. In the end, however, Walberg had the name recognition and money to sail to an easy victory in the August primary. In perhaps a dangerous sign for Schauer, over 65,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary while less than 25,000 Democratic ballots were cast.
Walberg, a former pastor and state legislator, has been boosted in all his campaigns by the Club for Growth, a national anti-tax organization. Walberg is a champion of many conservative causes including protecting the unborn, gun owner rights, and smaller government.
The Walberg-Schauer rematch is certainly a race to watch on election night. Schauer, like most incumbents, will enjoy a cash advantage in the campaign. However, outside spending by conservative groups should cut into that advantage. With the political atmosphere for Michigan Democrats becoming poisonous (the Republican candidate for governor is enjoying huge leads in the polls), Schauer faces an uphill battle. Two August polls showed Walberg with an 8-10% lead over the incumbent. At present, this looks like a good GOP pick-up opportunity.
The 7th encompasses south central Michigan. Jackson County, which has been hard hit by the recent economic downturn, is where a group of anti-slavery agitators met and created the Republican Party in 1854. Also in the 7th is Battle Creek, the home base of Kellogg's Cereal. Conservative Hillsdale College is also here.
South central Michigan voted heavily Republican from the Civil War through the New Deal and well into the late 20th century. However, around the 1970s, the area shifted slightly toward the Democrats as the national Republican party grew increasingly southern-oriented. However, the undercurrents of historical conservatism have mostly kept the district in the GOP column. George W. Bush carried this area twice, but Barack Obama won the 7th 52%-47% in 2008.
The 7th has elected four different congressmen in the last 4 elections. In 2006, moderate Republican Representative Joe Schwarz was defeated in the GOP primary by conservative Tim Walberg. Democrats, thinking Schwarz would be the nominee, nominated a weak candidate and Walberg managed a narrow victory in a tough year for Republicans.
In 2008, Democrats vowed to target Walberg, who they believed was too conservative for this district. Democrats lined up behind State Senate Majority Leader Mark Schauer. Schauer, who had first been elected to the Michigan legislature in 1996, campaigned as a moderate, stressing the importance of his family and faith. Schauer outraised Walberg and won the backing of influential moderates, including Schwarz. The end result was a 49%-46% Schauer victory.
During his first term, Schauer has been a strong supporter of most of the Obama agenda. He cast votes in favor of the health care reform bill, cap and trade, and the Obama stimulus proposal. Schauer was a strong backer of the automobile industry bailout.
Schauer's small winning percentage, his lack of tenure, the closely-divided nature of the 7th district, and a political environment favoring the GOP have made Schauer one of the most vulnerable House incumbents in 2010.
Three Republicans filed to run for the right to take on Schauer in November. The campaign developed into a battle between two candidates, Walberg and Brian Rooney, an Iraq War Veteran. Rooney is the grandson of famous Pittsburgh Steelers' owner Art Rooney. Rooney received the endorsement of Schwarz even though he campaigned as a constitutional conservative. In the end, however, Walberg had the name recognition and money to sail to an easy victory in the August primary. In perhaps a dangerous sign for Schauer, over 65,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary while less than 25,000 Democratic ballots were cast.
Walberg, a former pastor and state legislator, has been boosted in all his campaigns by the Club for Growth, a national anti-tax organization. Walberg is a champion of many conservative causes including protecting the unborn, gun owner rights, and smaller government.
The Walberg-Schauer rematch is certainly a race to watch on election night. Schauer, like most incumbents, will enjoy a cash advantage in the campaign. However, outside spending by conservative groups should cut into that advantage. With the political atmosphere for Michigan Democrats becoming poisonous (the Republican candidate for governor is enjoying huge leads in the polls), Schauer faces an uphill battle. Two August polls showed Walberg with an 8-10% lead over the incumbent. At present, this looks like a good GOP pick-up opportunity.
Friday, September 10, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Virginia 5th District
A House freshman, elected by the narrowest of margins in 2008, faces an uphill battle to retain a conservative Virginia district in an atmosphere hostile to Democrats.
Virginia's 5th district takes in over 9,000 square miles of mostly rural communities in south central and central Virginia. This sleepy land, once populated by antebellum plantations, is now filled with farms and small manufacturing towns. At the northern tip of the 5th is Charlottesville, a liberal hamlet that is home to Thomas Jefferson's University of Virginia. The district is also home to the historic village of Appomattox Court House in Appomattox County, where Robert E. Lee officially surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant to end the Civil War.
This part of Southside Virginia has a long conservative Democratic tradition dating back to the days of Robert E. Lee. Today, the 5th routinely favors national Republicans, voting for George W. Bush twice and favoring John McCain 51%-48% in 2008. However, academic Charlottesville is heavily Democratic and 22% of the 5th's population is African-American. providing a modern-day Democratic base of support in the district.
The 5th was represented by conservative Democrat-turned-Independent-turned-Republican Virgil Goode from 1996 until 2008. Goode's brand of southern conservatism served him well in the 5th and he was routinely re-elected handily. In 2008 with the Republican label hurting throughout Virginia, Goode was challenged by former national security consultant Tom Perriello. Perriello had a base of support among the academic community in Charlottesville and he managed to make inroads in rural parts of the district by emphasizing the importance of his religious beliefs. Perriello additionally benefitted from higher African-American turnout as a result of Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. In the end, the Goode-Perriello election was one of the closest in the country. Perriello prevailed 50.1%-49.9%, a margin of less than 750 votes.
Perriello, unlike his fellow Virginia freshman Glenn Nye, has been a supporter of much of the Obama agenda during his first term in office. Perriello voted in favor of the Obama health care bill and the cap and trade legislation.
Perriello's narrow victory and partisan voting record have made him one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House. Seven Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to square off against Perriello in the November general election. State Senator Robert Hurt emerged from the primary as the convincing winner, garnering over 48% of the vote in the crowded field. Hurt, an attorney from Chatham in Pittsylvania County, represents a State Senate district comprising nearly 1/4 of the 5th's population. Hurt boasts conservative positions across the board and is hoping to stoke anti-incumbent, anti-Washington sentiment in his early advertising.
Perriello has proved to be a dynamic fundraiser and has over $1.7 million cash on hand to spend in the coming weeks. Hurt has fundraised well, but the challenger will be at a major cash disadvantage heading into the home stretch of the campaign. All the money in the world may not help Perriello win a second term. Two SurveyUSA polls have shown Hurt leading by over 20%. If either of these polls is even close to accurate, Perriello faces a seemingly impossible uphill battle to retain this conservative district.
Virginia's 5th district takes in over 9,000 square miles of mostly rural communities in south central and central Virginia. This sleepy land, once populated by antebellum plantations, is now filled with farms and small manufacturing towns. At the northern tip of the 5th is Charlottesville, a liberal hamlet that is home to Thomas Jefferson's University of Virginia. The district is also home to the historic village of Appomattox Court House in Appomattox County, where Robert E. Lee officially surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant to end the Civil War.
This part of Southside Virginia has a long conservative Democratic tradition dating back to the days of Robert E. Lee. Today, the 5th routinely favors national Republicans, voting for George W. Bush twice and favoring John McCain 51%-48% in 2008. However, academic Charlottesville is heavily Democratic and 22% of the 5th's population is African-American. providing a modern-day Democratic base of support in the district.
The 5th was represented by conservative Democrat-turned-Independent-turned-Republican Virgil Goode from 1996 until 2008. Goode's brand of southern conservatism served him well in the 5th and he was routinely re-elected handily. In 2008 with the Republican label hurting throughout Virginia, Goode was challenged by former national security consultant Tom Perriello. Perriello had a base of support among the academic community in Charlottesville and he managed to make inroads in rural parts of the district by emphasizing the importance of his religious beliefs. Perriello additionally benefitted from higher African-American turnout as a result of Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. In the end, the Goode-Perriello election was one of the closest in the country. Perriello prevailed 50.1%-49.9%, a margin of less than 750 votes.
Perriello, unlike his fellow Virginia freshman Glenn Nye, has been a supporter of much of the Obama agenda during his first term in office. Perriello voted in favor of the Obama health care bill and the cap and trade legislation.
Perriello's narrow victory and partisan voting record have made him one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House. Seven Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to square off against Perriello in the November general election. State Senator Robert Hurt emerged from the primary as the convincing winner, garnering over 48% of the vote in the crowded field. Hurt, an attorney from Chatham in Pittsylvania County, represents a State Senate district comprising nearly 1/4 of the 5th's population. Hurt boasts conservative positions across the board and is hoping to stoke anti-incumbent, anti-Washington sentiment in his early advertising.
Perriello has proved to be a dynamic fundraiser and has over $1.7 million cash on hand to spend in the coming weeks. Hurt has fundraised well, but the challenger will be at a major cash disadvantage heading into the home stretch of the campaign. All the money in the world may not help Perriello win a second term. Two SurveyUSA polls have shown Hurt leading by over 20%. If either of these polls is even close to accurate, Perriello faces a seemingly impossible uphill battle to retain this conservative district.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Pennsylvania 11th District
The third match-up between familiar foes will determine who represents the coal country of northeast Pennsylvania and may well go a long way to determining which party has a House majority.
Pennsylvania's 11th district contains parts of several counties that were once home to the booming American coal industry. Today, these counties are struggling to revamp the local economies decades after the demand for coal bottomed out. The 11th is home to Scranton, famous among younger generations as the home of the fictional Dunder Mifflin Paper Company on NBC's The Office. The 11th also includes the former coal towns of Wilkes-Barre, Centralia, and Hazleton. To the east on the New Jersey border, Monroe County has become a popular destination for New Yorkers and New Jerseyians fleeing those two high tax states.
Pennsylvania's coal country has a long Democratic heritage, although most Democrats here veer to the right on social issues. Blue-collar Scranton and Monroe County, with its northeast suburban feel, are the most Democratic parts of the district. Wilkes-Barre and the rest of the coal counties are trending Republican due to their antipathy for national Democrats stances on issues like gun control and abortion. Barack Obama carried the 11th by the surprisingly strong margin of 57%-42%.
The 11th has been represented by Democrat Paul Kanjorski for 26 years. Kanjorski has become a powerful force on Capitol Hill and he is currently the number two Democrat on both the Financial Services Committee and the Oversight & Government Reform Committee. Kanjorski began his House career with a liberal voting record, but he now votes much nearer the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Kanjorski supported most of the Obama agenda including the health care reform bill and the cap-and-trade legislation. Kanjorski is an unapologetic earmarker and takes credit for bringing federal dollars into the 11th district.
In 2008, Kanjorski had the closest race of his congressional career. He was challenged by Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who hammered him for his championing of the economic stimulus package from his powerful perch on the Financial Services Committee. Barletta also made sure voters were aware of Kanjorski's role in siphoning federal dollars to a now-defunct technology company run by Kanjorski's family. In a good year for Democrats in Pennsylvania, Kanjorski barely survived 52%-48%.
This year, Barletta, who also unsuccessfully challenged Kanjorski in 2002, is back for a third shot at the veteran lawmaker. With the northeast Pennsylvania economy still lagging and only Democrats to blame this election cycle, Barletta may have his best chance to finally defeat Kanjorski. Barletta, who rose to national prominence when Hazleton enacted strikingly tough measures to combat illegal immigration in 2006, is an engaging candidate with experience representing a city that has long had more Democratic voters than Republican voters.
Kanjorski has built a 2-to-1 cash advantage over Barletta. Kanjorski, however, will have to deal with an unfavorable political environment against a well-known candidate. The uphill battle facing Kanjorski was obvious in a AAF/Ayers poll released in early August that showed Barletta leading Kanjorski 52%-41%. In 2008, Kanjorski trailed in the polls but still managed to survive, whether he can do so again remains to be seen.
Pennsylvania's 11th district contains parts of several counties that were once home to the booming American coal industry. Today, these counties are struggling to revamp the local economies decades after the demand for coal bottomed out. The 11th is home to Scranton, famous among younger generations as the home of the fictional Dunder Mifflin Paper Company on NBC's The Office. The 11th also includes the former coal towns of Wilkes-Barre, Centralia, and Hazleton. To the east on the New Jersey border, Monroe County has become a popular destination for New Yorkers and New Jerseyians fleeing those two high tax states.
Pennsylvania's coal country has a long Democratic heritage, although most Democrats here veer to the right on social issues. Blue-collar Scranton and Monroe County, with its northeast suburban feel, are the most Democratic parts of the district. Wilkes-Barre and the rest of the coal counties are trending Republican due to their antipathy for national Democrats stances on issues like gun control and abortion. Barack Obama carried the 11th by the surprisingly strong margin of 57%-42%.
The 11th has been represented by Democrat Paul Kanjorski for 26 years. Kanjorski has become a powerful force on Capitol Hill and he is currently the number two Democrat on both the Financial Services Committee and the Oversight & Government Reform Committee. Kanjorski began his House career with a liberal voting record, but he now votes much nearer the center of the House. In the 111th Congress, Kanjorski supported most of the Obama agenda including the health care reform bill and the cap-and-trade legislation. Kanjorski is an unapologetic earmarker and takes credit for bringing federal dollars into the 11th district.
In 2008, Kanjorski had the closest race of his congressional career. He was challenged by Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who hammered him for his championing of the economic stimulus package from his powerful perch on the Financial Services Committee. Barletta also made sure voters were aware of Kanjorski's role in siphoning federal dollars to a now-defunct technology company run by Kanjorski's family. In a good year for Democrats in Pennsylvania, Kanjorski barely survived 52%-48%.
This year, Barletta, who also unsuccessfully challenged Kanjorski in 2002, is back for a third shot at the veteran lawmaker. With the northeast Pennsylvania economy still lagging and only Democrats to blame this election cycle, Barletta may have his best chance to finally defeat Kanjorski. Barletta, who rose to national prominence when Hazleton enacted strikingly tough measures to combat illegal immigration in 2006, is an engaging candidate with experience representing a city that has long had more Democratic voters than Republican voters.
Kanjorski has built a 2-to-1 cash advantage over Barletta. Kanjorski, however, will have to deal with an unfavorable political environment against a well-known candidate. The uphill battle facing Kanjorski was obvious in a AAF/Ayers poll released in early August that showed Barletta leading Kanjorski 52%-41%. In 2008, Kanjorski trailed in the polls but still managed to survive, whether he can do so again remains to be seen.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Nevada 3rd District
A member of the Democratic House class of 2008 faces a difficult re-election bid in a suburban Las Vegas district.
Nevada's 3rd congressional district, newly created after the state gained a 3rd seat following the 2000 census, is an oddly-shaped (it looks much like the letter "Y") slice of Clark County including portions of the city of Las Vegas and most of the Las Vegas suburbs, including rapidly-growing Henderson just southeast of Las Vegas. The 3rd is the fastest growing district in Nevada, having grown in population by nearly 40% since 2000. In the likely event that Nevada receives a 4th congressional district in the 2010 census, the 3rd will likely need to shed 300,000+ people.
This district was designed to be competitive between the parties and it has been. Republican Rep. Jon Porter represented the district from its creation in 2002 through 2008. In 2008, Porter was challenged by Nevada Senate Minority Leader and 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. Titus capitalized on voter unrest over the sagging Las Vegas economy and benefitted greatly from Barack Obama's dominant (for a district George W. Bush carried in 2004) 55%-43% victory in the 3rd. Despite being outspent nearly 2-to-1 Titus beat Porter 47%-42%.
Titus has been a reliably liberal vote during the 111th Congress. She has been a key supporter of much of President Obama's agenda, including the health care reform bill and economic stimulus proposals.
As a freshman incumbent who won with only 47% of the vote, Titus was an obvious target for Republicans bent on recapturing this seat. Republicans recruited ex-State Senator, army reservist, and ER physician Joe Heck to run against Titus. Heck sailed to an easy victory in the GOP primary. Heck has based much of his campaign around Titus's controversial first term votes for health care reform and for the stimulus packages.
Titus has amassed a large war chest and will have the financial advantage over her Republican opponent, unlike in 2008. However, the economic situation in Nevada has not improved in the last two years and voters are more likely to blame Democrats come this November. Polling in the race has been a mixed bag, with some polls showing Titus leading by a point or two and other polls showing Heck leading by up to 5 points. Regardless, this is sure to be one of the tightest races in the country on Election Night. If the Republicans want to win a House majority, though, they need to win many these toss-up races.
Nevada's 3rd congressional district, newly created after the state gained a 3rd seat following the 2000 census, is an oddly-shaped (it looks much like the letter "Y") slice of Clark County including portions of the city of Las Vegas and most of the Las Vegas suburbs, including rapidly-growing Henderson just southeast of Las Vegas. The 3rd is the fastest growing district in Nevada, having grown in population by nearly 40% since 2000. In the likely event that Nevada receives a 4th congressional district in the 2010 census, the 3rd will likely need to shed 300,000+ people.
This district was designed to be competitive between the parties and it has been. Republican Rep. Jon Porter represented the district from its creation in 2002 through 2008. In 2008, Porter was challenged by Nevada Senate Minority Leader and 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. Titus capitalized on voter unrest over the sagging Las Vegas economy and benefitted greatly from Barack Obama's dominant (for a district George W. Bush carried in 2004) 55%-43% victory in the 3rd. Despite being outspent nearly 2-to-1 Titus beat Porter 47%-42%.
Titus has been a reliably liberal vote during the 111th Congress. She has been a key supporter of much of President Obama's agenda, including the health care reform bill and economic stimulus proposals.
As a freshman incumbent who won with only 47% of the vote, Titus was an obvious target for Republicans bent on recapturing this seat. Republicans recruited ex-State Senator, army reservist, and ER physician Joe Heck to run against Titus. Heck sailed to an easy victory in the GOP primary. Heck has based much of his campaign around Titus's controversial first term votes for health care reform and for the stimulus packages.
Titus has amassed a large war chest and will have the financial advantage over her Republican opponent, unlike in 2008. However, the economic situation in Nevada has not improved in the last two years and voters are more likely to blame Democrats come this November. Polling in the race has been a mixed bag, with some polls showing Titus leading by a point or two and other polls showing Heck leading by up to 5 points. Regardless, this is sure to be one of the tightest races in the country on Election Night. If the Republicans want to win a House majority, though, they need to win many these toss-up races.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Michigan 1st District
The retirement of a popular Democrat congressman has turned one of the coldest district's in the country into the site of a hotly contested House race.
Michigan's 1st district covers nearly 28,000 square miles of frigid terrain in the northernmost reaches of the Wolverine State. The district's population is split almost in half between the upper and lower peninsulas of Michigan. Michigan's Upper Peninsula (the UP to locals) is an area of little to no population growth with a mostly stagnant economy and some of the coldest and snowiest places in the United States. The half of the district south of the Mackinaw Bridge on the lower peninsula contains a mixture of slow growing, blue collar towns on Lake Huron and more affluent and faster-growing towns along Lake Michigan.
The UP has a Democratic heritage going back over a century, although most voters here lean toward Republican views on cultural issues such as gun control and abortion. The faster-growing portions of the 1st along Lake Michigan are Republican. The result is a district nearly split between the two major parties. George W. Bush twice carried this area, but in 2008 the 1st voted for Barack Obama 50%-48%.
The congressman representing the 1st since 1992 is moderate Democrat Bart Stupak. In his 18-year House career, Stupak, a former Michigan State Trooper, made a name for himself as a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat. Stupak has served as Chairman of the influential Oversight & Investigations Subcommittee on Energy & Commerce and has been a party loyalist on most economic and foreign policy votes.
Almost overnight, in 2009 and 2010, Stupak became a national figure. Stupak emerged as the leader of a group of about 20-25 pro-life House Democrats who originally announced that they would not support any health care reform bill that provided for government funding of abortions. The back-and-forth between the Stupak-led group, the Democratic House leadership, and the Obama White House caused many observers to questions whether the health care legislation would pass the House. Eventually, Stupak's group reached a compromise with the President Obama whereby they would support the health care reform legislation in exchange for President Obama's promise to issue an executive order stating that no federal funds would be used to fund abortions except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.
Many on both the left and the right were critical of Stupak's handling of the situation and tea party activists promised to make Stupak one of their top targets of the 2010 election cycle. In April, just weeks after the health care bill passed the House, Stupak announced that he was retiring to spend more time with his family.
Republicans had long hoped to take this seat, but knew that Stupak was an almost impossible target due to his popularity in the district. With Stupak off the ballot, the open seat race became a top GOP takeover opportunity. Six Republicans filed to run for the seat. The race for the GOP nomination quickly became a tight two-man race between State Senator Jason Allen and political neophyte and UP surgeon Dan Benishek.
The Republican primary, in typical northern Michigan style, was a friendly affair. On the August 3 primary night, Benishek, who had been running even before Stupak's retirement announcement, and Allen basically tied. Various reports had Benishek leading by anywhere from 1 to 15 votes. After a couple of weeks of careful vote counting, the Michigan Secretary of State's Office certified Benishek as the winner by the whopping margin of 15 votes. Allen chose not to ask for a recount and threw his support behind Benishek.
Democrats were able to avoid an intra-party battle and unanimously nominated former UPS driver and State Representative Gary McDowell, from Rudyard in the UP. McDowell has moderate views on many cultural issues, a la Stupak, and has the strong backing of the popular congressman.
To date, Benishek has outraised McDowell, but both candidates had a little over $100,000 cash on hand at the last reporting deadline. The NRCC and the DCCC are both planning to air ads in the 1st. An August WeAskAmerica poll showed Benishek leading McDowell 45%-29%.
In this rural swing district, where national Democrats' views on many issues are not popular, Benishek is the slight favorite to flip this seat from blue to red. Benishek seems to have survived his narrow primary victory none the worse for wear. Democrats probably have too many vulnerable incumbents to protect across the country to expend too many resources in this district.
Michigan's 1st district covers nearly 28,000 square miles of frigid terrain in the northernmost reaches of the Wolverine State. The district's population is split almost in half between the upper and lower peninsulas of Michigan. Michigan's Upper Peninsula (the UP to locals) is an area of little to no population growth with a mostly stagnant economy and some of the coldest and snowiest places in the United States. The half of the district south of the Mackinaw Bridge on the lower peninsula contains a mixture of slow growing, blue collar towns on Lake Huron and more affluent and faster-growing towns along Lake Michigan.
The UP has a Democratic heritage going back over a century, although most voters here lean toward Republican views on cultural issues such as gun control and abortion. The faster-growing portions of the 1st along Lake Michigan are Republican. The result is a district nearly split between the two major parties. George W. Bush twice carried this area, but in 2008 the 1st voted for Barack Obama 50%-48%.
The congressman representing the 1st since 1992 is moderate Democrat Bart Stupak. In his 18-year House career, Stupak, a former Michigan State Trooper, made a name for himself as a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat. Stupak has served as Chairman of the influential Oversight & Investigations Subcommittee on Energy & Commerce and has been a party loyalist on most economic and foreign policy votes.
Almost overnight, in 2009 and 2010, Stupak became a national figure. Stupak emerged as the leader of a group of about 20-25 pro-life House Democrats who originally announced that they would not support any health care reform bill that provided for government funding of abortions. The back-and-forth between the Stupak-led group, the Democratic House leadership, and the Obama White House caused many observers to questions whether the health care legislation would pass the House. Eventually, Stupak's group reached a compromise with the President Obama whereby they would support the health care reform legislation in exchange for President Obama's promise to issue an executive order stating that no federal funds would be used to fund abortions except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.
Many on both the left and the right were critical of Stupak's handling of the situation and tea party activists promised to make Stupak one of their top targets of the 2010 election cycle. In April, just weeks after the health care bill passed the House, Stupak announced that he was retiring to spend more time with his family.
Republicans had long hoped to take this seat, but knew that Stupak was an almost impossible target due to his popularity in the district. With Stupak off the ballot, the open seat race became a top GOP takeover opportunity. Six Republicans filed to run for the seat. The race for the GOP nomination quickly became a tight two-man race between State Senator Jason Allen and political neophyte and UP surgeon Dan Benishek.
The Republican primary, in typical northern Michigan style, was a friendly affair. On the August 3 primary night, Benishek, who had been running even before Stupak's retirement announcement, and Allen basically tied. Various reports had Benishek leading by anywhere from 1 to 15 votes. After a couple of weeks of careful vote counting, the Michigan Secretary of State's Office certified Benishek as the winner by the whopping margin of 15 votes. Allen chose not to ask for a recount and threw his support behind Benishek.
Democrats were able to avoid an intra-party battle and unanimously nominated former UPS driver and State Representative Gary McDowell, from Rudyard in the UP. McDowell has moderate views on many cultural issues, a la Stupak, and has the strong backing of the popular congressman.
To date, Benishek has outraised McDowell, but both candidates had a little over $100,000 cash on hand at the last reporting deadline. The NRCC and the DCCC are both planning to air ads in the 1st. An August WeAskAmerica poll showed Benishek leading McDowell 45%-29%.
In this rural swing district, where national Democrats' views on many issues are not popular, Benishek is the slight favorite to flip this seat from blue to red. Benishek seems to have survived his narrow primary victory none the worse for wear. Democrats probably have too many vulnerable incumbents to protect across the country to expend too many resources in this district.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Florida 8th District
The loudest member of the 2008 freshman class faces a tough re-election campaign in central Florida.
Florida's 8th district includes fast-growing areas in and around Orlando, including the gigantic Walt Disney World complex. The district moves northward to take in some more rural, but growing, areas in Lake and Marion Counties. Like much of Central Florida, this district's population has boomed in the last decade. The 8th's population has increased by over 20% since the 2000 census. Orlando's Orange County was a GOP stronghold two decades ago, but today it is moving toward Democrats. In 2002, Republicans controlled the redistricting process in Florida and they attempted to make the 8th a Republican district by parcelling off heavily Democratic Orlando precincts into the African-American majority 3rd district.
Until 2008, the 8th elected Republican Ric Keller to four terms by increasingly slim margins. When first elected in 2000, Keller had pledged to serve only four terms, a promise he broke to seek re-election in 2008. Democrats sensed an opportunity to defeat Keller and nominated wealthy Harvard-educated lawyer Alan Grayson. Grayson capitalized on voter discontent with Keller's broken term limits pledge and benefitted from Barack Obama's 52%-47% victory in the district. Grayson prevailed 52%-48% over the incumbent.
From his first days in office, Grayson was a national figure. Grayson became a frequent cable news guest and has made news on numerous occasions for his outlandish comments on a wide variety of issues: calling Rush Limbaugh a "has-been hypocrite loser", claiming that Republican opposition to Obama's health care bill meant the GOP wanted sick people to "die quickly", labeling tea partiers who flocked to Glenn Beck's Washington rally as "the people who were wearing sheets over their heads 25 years ago."
Grayson's combative personality and penchant for verbal fireworks have made him a darling of the American left and have made him a fundraising star in the Democrat Party. Conversely, his leftist views and unwillingness to work across party lines make him an appealing target for Republicans in this swing district.
Seven Republican candidates filed for the right to challenge Grayson in the 2010 general election. In the August primary, former Florida House Speaker and Florida Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster emerged as the clear winner, garnering over 40% of the vote. No other candidate received more than 23% of the vote.
Webster is a well-known Florida pol from his years as a Republican leader in Tallahassee. He is running on conservative staples of less government, lower taxes, personal responsibility, individual freedom, and empowering families.
Grayson enters the final weeks of the campaign with an overwhelming financial advantage over Webster. Grayson's national stature, fundraising prowess, and personal wealth virtually assure him of being able to pull out all the stops to keep his seat. However, the Republican Party and conservative interest groups have pledged to target the bombastic Grayson.
There is no doubt that Grayson's brand of liberalism is well outside of the mainstream in this nearly evenly split district. Additionally, Grayson will not have the top of the ticket help he had in his initial election. These factors, at present, make Webster a slight favorite. Real Clear Politics ranks this race as "Leans Republican" and Stuart Rothenberg ranks it as "Tilt Republican." Grayson's nearly limitless financial resources, however, almost assure that this will be race that goes right down to the wire.
Florida's 8th district includes fast-growing areas in and around Orlando, including the gigantic Walt Disney World complex. The district moves northward to take in some more rural, but growing, areas in Lake and Marion Counties. Like much of Central Florida, this district's population has boomed in the last decade. The 8th's population has increased by over 20% since the 2000 census. Orlando's Orange County was a GOP stronghold two decades ago, but today it is moving toward Democrats. In 2002, Republicans controlled the redistricting process in Florida and they attempted to make the 8th a Republican district by parcelling off heavily Democratic Orlando precincts into the African-American majority 3rd district.
Until 2008, the 8th elected Republican Ric Keller to four terms by increasingly slim margins. When first elected in 2000, Keller had pledged to serve only four terms, a promise he broke to seek re-election in 2008. Democrats sensed an opportunity to defeat Keller and nominated wealthy Harvard-educated lawyer Alan Grayson. Grayson capitalized on voter discontent with Keller's broken term limits pledge and benefitted from Barack Obama's 52%-47% victory in the district. Grayson prevailed 52%-48% over the incumbent.
From his first days in office, Grayson was a national figure. Grayson became a frequent cable news guest and has made news on numerous occasions for his outlandish comments on a wide variety of issues: calling Rush Limbaugh a "has-been hypocrite loser", claiming that Republican opposition to Obama's health care bill meant the GOP wanted sick people to "die quickly", labeling tea partiers who flocked to Glenn Beck's Washington rally as "the people who were wearing sheets over their heads 25 years ago."
Grayson's combative personality and penchant for verbal fireworks have made him a darling of the American left and have made him a fundraising star in the Democrat Party. Conversely, his leftist views and unwillingness to work across party lines make him an appealing target for Republicans in this swing district.
Seven Republican candidates filed for the right to challenge Grayson in the 2010 general election. In the August primary, former Florida House Speaker and Florida Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster emerged as the clear winner, garnering over 40% of the vote. No other candidate received more than 23% of the vote.
Webster is a well-known Florida pol from his years as a Republican leader in Tallahassee. He is running on conservative staples of less government, lower taxes, personal responsibility, individual freedom, and empowering families.
Grayson enters the final weeks of the campaign with an overwhelming financial advantage over Webster. Grayson's national stature, fundraising prowess, and personal wealth virtually assure him of being able to pull out all the stops to keep his seat. However, the Republican Party and conservative interest groups have pledged to target the bombastic Grayson.
There is no doubt that Grayson's brand of liberalism is well outside of the mainstream in this nearly evenly split district. Additionally, Grayson will not have the top of the ticket help he had in his initial election. These factors, at present, make Webster a slight favorite. Real Clear Politics ranks this race as "Leans Republican" and Stuart Rothenberg ranks it as "Tilt Republican." Grayson's nearly limitless financial resources, however, almost assure that this will be race that goes right down to the wire.
Missouri House Race Spotlight - 91st District
Missouri's 91st House district has been a political battleground for the past two election cycles and, if form holds, it will be hotly contested again in 2010.
The 91st contains a slice of east central St. Louis County. The district takes in most of the suburban towns of Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Glendale, and Oakland. The bulk of the district's population is located in affluent Webster Groves, a growing suburban town of over 23,000 at the last census. Webster Groves has long been a destination for wealthy families wanting to escape the crime and noise of inner city St. Louis. Family Circle magazine recently named Webster Groves one of the top 10 cities in America for families. Shrewsbury, bordering St. Louis City, has seen growth in recent years as well.
This part of St. Louis County is located right at the border between heavily Republican suburban St. Louis County and overwhelmingly Democratic St. Louis City, making it a prime political battleground. Webster Groves, with its core of affluent young families, has long been Republican, but today many of the wealthiest St. Louisians are moving even farther out into St. Louis County. In 2006, the 91st re-elected Republican Rep. Kathlyn Fares by a slim 50.7%-49.3% margin. In 2008, when Fares was barred from running for re-election by term limits, Democrat Jeanne Kirkton won the open seat 51%-49% over Republican Randy Jotte.
Prior to her election to the House, Kirkton had long been active in civic affairs in Webster Groves and had been elected to the Webster Groves City Council in 2006. Kirkton champions many traditionally liberal causes, including gun restrictions, promotion of the environment, and government-funded health care. Recently, Kirkton was featured in a Governing Magazine article about the increasingly Democratic nature of many of America's suburbs.
The Republican nominee in the 91st is Glendale Mayor Rich Magee. Magee, an attorney, has been active in Glendale politics since 1995, serving as an Alderman for 10 years prior to his election as mayor in 2005. Magee's campaign is focusing on economic issues such as job creation and fairness in real estate taxation.
The competitiveness of the 91st, coupled with the heightened Republican voting enthusiasm this year, make Kirkton one of the most vulnerable Missouri House incumbents this year. Magee is an experienced candidate who seems to have all the attributes necessary to return this district to the Republican column.
The 91st contains a slice of east central St. Louis County. The district takes in most of the suburban towns of Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Glendale, and Oakland. The bulk of the district's population is located in affluent Webster Groves, a growing suburban town of over 23,000 at the last census. Webster Groves has long been a destination for wealthy families wanting to escape the crime and noise of inner city St. Louis. Family Circle magazine recently named Webster Groves one of the top 10 cities in America for families. Shrewsbury, bordering St. Louis City, has seen growth in recent years as well.
This part of St. Louis County is located right at the border between heavily Republican suburban St. Louis County and overwhelmingly Democratic St. Louis City, making it a prime political battleground. Webster Groves, with its core of affluent young families, has long been Republican, but today many of the wealthiest St. Louisians are moving even farther out into St. Louis County. In 2006, the 91st re-elected Republican Rep. Kathlyn Fares by a slim 50.7%-49.3% margin. In 2008, when Fares was barred from running for re-election by term limits, Democrat Jeanne Kirkton won the open seat 51%-49% over Republican Randy Jotte.
Prior to her election to the House, Kirkton had long been active in civic affairs in Webster Groves and had been elected to the Webster Groves City Council in 2006. Kirkton champions many traditionally liberal causes, including gun restrictions, promotion of the environment, and government-funded health care. Recently, Kirkton was featured in a Governing Magazine article about the increasingly Democratic nature of many of America's suburbs.
The Republican nominee in the 91st is Glendale Mayor Rich Magee. Magee, an attorney, has been active in Glendale politics since 1995, serving as an Alderman for 10 years prior to his election as mayor in 2005. Magee's campaign is focusing on economic issues such as job creation and fairness in real estate taxation.
The competitiveness of the 91st, coupled with the heightened Republican voting enthusiasm this year, make Kirkton one of the most vulnerable Missouri House incumbents this year. Magee is an experienced candidate who seems to have all the attributes necessary to return this district to the Republican column.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Illinois 11th District
A freshman Democrat will face a tough challenge to secure a second term in central Illinois.
The 11th district of Illinois is an ungainly T-shaped district cut out of the swampy lands south of Chicago. The district includes most of fast-growing Will County, including the city of Joilet. Also in the 11th are several rural counties and a thin strip of land heading south to the city of Bloomington. This is one part of Illinois that is growing rapidly. The 11th's population has grown by over 12% since 2000.
Downstate Illinois has been Republican since the days of Abraham Lincoln, often acting as a counterbalance to heavily Democratic Chicago. Will County has become a political battleground, a must-win for successful statewide candidates. After supporting George W. Bush 54%-46% in 2004, the 11th switched to support Illinois native Barack Obama 53%-45% in 2008.
A prime beneficiary of the 2008 Obama wave was Democrat Debbie Halvorson. Halvorson, a longtime Mary Kay saleswoman from Crete, was first elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and later became Senate Majority Leader. In 2008, Halvorson was the beneficiary of Republican foibles. Five-term Republican Representative Jerry Weller chose not to seek re-election due to his involvement in some sketchy land deals in Central America. Next, the winner of the Republican primary, Tim Baldermann, withdrew from the campaign just weeks after securing the nomination, citing his unwillingness to fundraise. Republicans eventually settled on political novice Marty Ozinga, whose campaign never took flight.
Halvorson, buoyed by Obama's strong showing in the 11th, won a surprisingly easy victory in this battleground district 58%-34%. Halvorson has compiled a moderate-to-liberal voting record during her first term. She voted in favor of the Obama Health Care bill and much of President Obama's agenda.
Republican Adam Kinzinger will be Halvorson's November opponent. Kinzinger, 32, is hoping to become one of the youngest members of the Republican House Caucus (he has a few years on 29-year old Republican Aaron Schock of the neighboring 18th district). Kinzinger has been something of a political wunderkind, winning a seat on the McLean County Board while still in college. Kinzinger later joined the U.S. Air Force where he served in Iraq. Youthful and telegenic, Kinzinger began running against Halvorson early in 2009 and easily secured the GOP nomination in the February primary.
The Halvorson-Kinzinger race has been steadily trending in Kinzinger's direction. Both the Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics now rate this race as "Leans Republican." Halvorson has nearly $1.5 million cash on hand as of the latest reporting cycle, so she is sure to saturate the airwaves in Joliet and Bloomington and everywhere in between during the coming days. Kinzinger has proved to be a solid fundraiser in his own right, raising over $1 million already this cycle. Both national parties are set to buy airtime in the district.
The shift toward Kinzinger was obvious in an August WeAskAmerica poll. In this poll, Kinzinger led Halvorson by the stunning margin of 52%-32%. Even though this number is sure to tighten as November 2nd nears, 32% is a woeful number for any incumbent less than three months from Election Day. For now, Kinzinger has the advantage and Halvorson will have to hope for a change in the political winds to win a second term.
The 11th district of Illinois is an ungainly T-shaped district cut out of the swampy lands south of Chicago. The district includes most of fast-growing Will County, including the city of Joilet. Also in the 11th are several rural counties and a thin strip of land heading south to the city of Bloomington. This is one part of Illinois that is growing rapidly. The 11th's population has grown by over 12% since 2000.
Downstate Illinois has been Republican since the days of Abraham Lincoln, often acting as a counterbalance to heavily Democratic Chicago. Will County has become a political battleground, a must-win for successful statewide candidates. After supporting George W. Bush 54%-46% in 2004, the 11th switched to support Illinois native Barack Obama 53%-45% in 2008.
A prime beneficiary of the 2008 Obama wave was Democrat Debbie Halvorson. Halvorson, a longtime Mary Kay saleswoman from Crete, was first elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and later became Senate Majority Leader. In 2008, Halvorson was the beneficiary of Republican foibles. Five-term Republican Representative Jerry Weller chose not to seek re-election due to his involvement in some sketchy land deals in Central America. Next, the winner of the Republican primary, Tim Baldermann, withdrew from the campaign just weeks after securing the nomination, citing his unwillingness to fundraise. Republicans eventually settled on political novice Marty Ozinga, whose campaign never took flight.
Halvorson, buoyed by Obama's strong showing in the 11th, won a surprisingly easy victory in this battleground district 58%-34%. Halvorson has compiled a moderate-to-liberal voting record during her first term. She voted in favor of the Obama Health Care bill and much of President Obama's agenda.
Republican Adam Kinzinger will be Halvorson's November opponent. Kinzinger, 32, is hoping to become one of the youngest members of the Republican House Caucus (he has a few years on 29-year old Republican Aaron Schock of the neighboring 18th district). Kinzinger has been something of a political wunderkind, winning a seat on the McLean County Board while still in college. Kinzinger later joined the U.S. Air Force where he served in Iraq. Youthful and telegenic, Kinzinger began running against Halvorson early in 2009 and easily secured the GOP nomination in the February primary.
The Halvorson-Kinzinger race has been steadily trending in Kinzinger's direction. Both the Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics now rate this race as "Leans Republican." Halvorson has nearly $1.5 million cash on hand as of the latest reporting cycle, so she is sure to saturate the airwaves in Joliet and Bloomington and everywhere in between during the coming days. Kinzinger has proved to be a solid fundraiser in his own right, raising over $1 million already this cycle. Both national parties are set to buy airtime in the district.
The shift toward Kinzinger was obvious in an August WeAskAmerica poll. In this poll, Kinzinger led Halvorson by the stunning margin of 52%-32%. Even though this number is sure to tighten as November 2nd nears, 32% is a woeful number for any incumbent less than three months from Election Day. For now, Kinzinger has the advantage and Halvorson will have to hope for a change in the political winds to win a second term.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Texas 17th District
A venerable Democratic political escape artist will need to survive perhaps the toughest challenge of his career to serve into his third decade in the U.S. House.
The 17th congressional district of Texas takes in a slice of central Texas running north and south from Fort Worth suburbs in Johnson County to areas just north of Huntsville. The district includes two Big 12 Universities, Texas A&M in College Station and Baylor in Waco. Waco is at the center of the 17th and over 30% of the district's population lives in that city.
This area long favored conservative Democrats, but in recent years has become overwhelmingly Republican. The Dallas-Fort Worth exurbs in the northern part of the district vote as heavily Republican as any area of the country. George W. Bush carried the 17th with 70% of the vote in 2004 and John McCain's winning percentage here was 67%-32%. Barack Obama won only 82,000 votes in the 17th. This district was made even more Republican by partisan GOP redistricters in the 2003 Texas redistricting.
All of this would lead one to assume that the 17th is represented by a conservative Republican in Congress. This assumption would, of course, be incorrect. The 17th is represented by Democrat Chet Edwards, a veteran member of the Democratic caucus and the political Harry Houdini of Texas politics. Edwards was first elected in 1990 in the Waco-based 11th district. This district was much more Democrat-friendly and Edwards had no trouble holding the seat throughout the 1990s. In 2002, Edwards narrowly survived a tough GOP challenge in a newly redrawn district. Then came the Texas GOP's partisan redistricting plan. Texas Republicans, led by Majority Leader Tom DeLay, targeted seven Democratic congressmen and drew lines with their defeats chiefly in mind. Of the seven, only Edwards survived the 2004 election (one retired and five were defeated).
Representing the most Republican district of any member of the House Democratic caucus, Edwards has bucked his party on many issues. Most notably of late, Edwards voted against President Obama's Health Care package. Edwards, however, often casts votes that put him at odds with large percentages of his constituents: voting against the partial-birth abortion ban and opposing the troop surge in Iraq.
The Republican nature of the district and the unpopularity of national Democrats in the 17th make this district an obvious GOP pick-up opportunity. Five Republicans ran in the March primary for the right to take on Edwards in November. Wealthy executive Bill Flores emerged from the primary in first place with 33% of the vote. Running in a close second place was Edwards's 2008 challenger, Rob Curnock, who held Edwards to a 53%-46% victory two years ago despite being outspent by nearly 20-to-1.
Under Texas law, Flores and Curnock advanced to an April runoff election. The tenor of the runoff campaign grew negative in the days before the vote. Curnock accused Flores of voting in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primary and of not voting at all in the general election. Flores countered that he was voting against Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary and that he was tied up with business on Election Day and did not get away in time to vote. Flores, in turn, raised questions about Curnock's large homestead tax exemption. Flores had more money to spend, and in relatively light turnout, defeated Curnock 65%-35% in the runoff.
Flores has a compelling personal story. He grew up in a family of modest means and put himself through college at Texas A&M. He rose to high level executive jobs with several energy companies, serving as Chief Financial Officer of various companies.
The campaign between Edwards and Flores has grown negative of late, with Edwards running ads accusing Flores of cutting thousands of jobs in his business career. Flores countered by producing affidavits from colleagues stating that Edwards's assertion is not true. Recently, Flores hinted that he may file a defamation lawsuit against Edwards.
Edwards has faced tough races before, but he has never faced a well-financed opponent in a Republican year with this set of district boundaries. Edwards has stockpiled money and has over $2 million cash on hand to spend in the coming days. Flores has raised over $1 million (over half of which has already been spent) and can dig into his own pockets if necessary. Edwards will need to distance himself from his unpopular party label if he stands any chance of pulling out another tough election victory in this heavily Republican district.
The 17th congressional district of Texas takes in a slice of central Texas running north and south from Fort Worth suburbs in Johnson County to areas just north of Huntsville. The district includes two Big 12 Universities, Texas A&M in College Station and Baylor in Waco. Waco is at the center of the 17th and over 30% of the district's population lives in that city.
This area long favored conservative Democrats, but in recent years has become overwhelmingly Republican. The Dallas-Fort Worth exurbs in the northern part of the district vote as heavily Republican as any area of the country. George W. Bush carried the 17th with 70% of the vote in 2004 and John McCain's winning percentage here was 67%-32%. Barack Obama won only 82,000 votes in the 17th. This district was made even more Republican by partisan GOP redistricters in the 2003 Texas redistricting.
All of this would lead one to assume that the 17th is represented by a conservative Republican in Congress. This assumption would, of course, be incorrect. The 17th is represented by Democrat Chet Edwards, a veteran member of the Democratic caucus and the political Harry Houdini of Texas politics. Edwards was first elected in 1990 in the Waco-based 11th district. This district was much more Democrat-friendly and Edwards had no trouble holding the seat throughout the 1990s. In 2002, Edwards narrowly survived a tough GOP challenge in a newly redrawn district. Then came the Texas GOP's partisan redistricting plan. Texas Republicans, led by Majority Leader Tom DeLay, targeted seven Democratic congressmen and drew lines with their defeats chiefly in mind. Of the seven, only Edwards survived the 2004 election (one retired and five were defeated).
Representing the most Republican district of any member of the House Democratic caucus, Edwards has bucked his party on many issues. Most notably of late, Edwards voted against President Obama's Health Care package. Edwards, however, often casts votes that put him at odds with large percentages of his constituents: voting against the partial-birth abortion ban and opposing the troop surge in Iraq.
The Republican nature of the district and the unpopularity of national Democrats in the 17th make this district an obvious GOP pick-up opportunity. Five Republicans ran in the March primary for the right to take on Edwards in November. Wealthy executive Bill Flores emerged from the primary in first place with 33% of the vote. Running in a close second place was Edwards's 2008 challenger, Rob Curnock, who held Edwards to a 53%-46% victory two years ago despite being outspent by nearly 20-to-1.
Under Texas law, Flores and Curnock advanced to an April runoff election. The tenor of the runoff campaign grew negative in the days before the vote. Curnock accused Flores of voting in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primary and of not voting at all in the general election. Flores countered that he was voting against Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary and that he was tied up with business on Election Day and did not get away in time to vote. Flores, in turn, raised questions about Curnock's large homestead tax exemption. Flores had more money to spend, and in relatively light turnout, defeated Curnock 65%-35% in the runoff.
Flores has a compelling personal story. He grew up in a family of modest means and put himself through college at Texas A&M. He rose to high level executive jobs with several energy companies, serving as Chief Financial Officer of various companies.
The campaign between Edwards and Flores has grown negative of late, with Edwards running ads accusing Flores of cutting thousands of jobs in his business career. Flores countered by producing affidavits from colleagues stating that Edwards's assertion is not true. Recently, Flores hinted that he may file a defamation lawsuit against Edwards.
Edwards has faced tough races before, but he has never faced a well-financed opponent in a Republican year with this set of district boundaries. Edwards has stockpiled money and has over $2 million cash on hand to spend in the coming days. Flores has raised over $1 million (over half of which has already been spent) and can dig into his own pockets if necessary. Edwards will need to distance himself from his unpopular party label if he stands any chance of pulling out another tough election victory in this heavily Republican district.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Tennessee's 8th District
A Blue Dog's retirement has made Tennessee's 8th District the site of one of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country in 2010.
The 8th is a collection of small towns in western Tennessee, ranging all the way from southern Clarksville to suburbs just north of Memphis in Shelby County. The largest city in the 8th is Jackson, which weighs in at less than 60,000 people. Since before the Civil War, this northwestern slice of Tennessee has favored the Democratic Party. This preference was first challenged in the 1960s and 1970s when, turned off by the cultural liberalism of national Democrats, this area voted Republican in Presidential elections. The area returned briefly to the Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s, but the 8th voted for George W. Bush 53%-47% in 2004 and voted even more strongly for John McCain 56%-43% in 2008.
For the last 22 years, the 8th has been represented by influential Blue Dog Democrat John Tanner. Tanner has weathered all sorts of political environments with ease, never winning with less than 62% of the vote in a district that is very competitive in national and state elections. Tanner has been central in crafting many important pieces of legislation throughout his tenure, from the 1996 welfare reform proposal signed into law by President Clinton to legislation encouraging offshore oil drilling. His voting record often placed him near the center of the House.
In December 2009. Tanner, already facing a competitive re-election challenge from Republican Stephen Fincher, announced that he was retiring at the end of his current term rather than seeking a 12th term in the House. Tanner would have been favored to hold this seat, but his retirement made the seat a major GOP target.
With Tanner out of the race, the Republican primary suddenly got crowded with four new candidates joining Fincher on the ballot. Jackson County physician Ron Kirkland and Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn emerged as Fincher's main primary rivals. In the end, Fincher's head start and outsider status led to a comfortable victory in the August GOP primary. Kirkland and Flinn received approximately 17,000 each; Fincher doubled them up, racking up over 35,000 votes.
Fincher, a family farmer and gospel singer from Frog Jump in Crockett County is making his first foray into politics. His early fundraising totals raised eyebrows and put this race on the map even before Tanner's retirement announcement. Fincher has based his campaign around the themes of faith and family as well as stressing his willingness to take on the Washington establishment.
Two Democrats filed to run for the right to succeed the popular Tanner. The eventual Democratic nominee was State Senator Roy Herron. Herron is well known in parts of the 8th as he has represented parts of the district in the Tennessee legislature since 1986, first in the Tennessee House and for the last 13 years in the Tennessee Senate. Herron is the type of moderate-to-conservative Democrat that has represented the 8th for most of its history. Herron, the author of a book titled God and Politics: How Can a Christian be in Politics?, touts his pro-gun, pro-family, pro-faith, and anti-government spending stances.
Both Fincher and Herron have raised well over $1 million already, but Herron has a cash on hand advantage due to his not having to spend as much to secure his party's nomination. Both parties are expected to invest in advertising in this relatively inexpensive district. The candidates have many similarities, but Herron will have to work against the anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi mood of most 8th district voters if he is to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
The 8th is a collection of small towns in western Tennessee, ranging all the way from southern Clarksville to suburbs just north of Memphis in Shelby County. The largest city in the 8th is Jackson, which weighs in at less than 60,000 people. Since before the Civil War, this northwestern slice of Tennessee has favored the Democratic Party. This preference was first challenged in the 1960s and 1970s when, turned off by the cultural liberalism of national Democrats, this area voted Republican in Presidential elections. The area returned briefly to the Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s, but the 8th voted for George W. Bush 53%-47% in 2004 and voted even more strongly for John McCain 56%-43% in 2008.
For the last 22 years, the 8th has been represented by influential Blue Dog Democrat John Tanner. Tanner has weathered all sorts of political environments with ease, never winning with less than 62% of the vote in a district that is very competitive in national and state elections. Tanner has been central in crafting many important pieces of legislation throughout his tenure, from the 1996 welfare reform proposal signed into law by President Clinton to legislation encouraging offshore oil drilling. His voting record often placed him near the center of the House.
In December 2009. Tanner, already facing a competitive re-election challenge from Republican Stephen Fincher, announced that he was retiring at the end of his current term rather than seeking a 12th term in the House. Tanner would have been favored to hold this seat, but his retirement made the seat a major GOP target.
With Tanner out of the race, the Republican primary suddenly got crowded with four new candidates joining Fincher on the ballot. Jackson County physician Ron Kirkland and Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn emerged as Fincher's main primary rivals. In the end, Fincher's head start and outsider status led to a comfortable victory in the August GOP primary. Kirkland and Flinn received approximately 17,000 each; Fincher doubled them up, racking up over 35,000 votes.
Fincher, a family farmer and gospel singer from Frog Jump in Crockett County is making his first foray into politics. His early fundraising totals raised eyebrows and put this race on the map even before Tanner's retirement announcement. Fincher has based his campaign around the themes of faith and family as well as stressing his willingness to take on the Washington establishment.
Two Democrats filed to run for the right to succeed the popular Tanner. The eventual Democratic nominee was State Senator Roy Herron. Herron is well known in parts of the 8th as he has represented parts of the district in the Tennessee legislature since 1986, first in the Tennessee House and for the last 13 years in the Tennessee Senate. Herron is the type of moderate-to-conservative Democrat that has represented the 8th for most of its history. Herron, the author of a book titled God and Politics: How Can a Christian be in Politics?, touts his pro-gun, pro-family, pro-faith, and anti-government spending stances.
Both Fincher and Herron have raised well over $1 million already, but Herron has a cash on hand advantage due to his not having to spend as much to secure his party's nomination. Both parties are expected to invest in advertising in this relatively inexpensive district. The candidates have many similarities, but Herron will have to work against the anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi mood of most 8th district voters if he is to keep this seat in Democratic hands.
Meet the Freshmen! Part 1
One of the fun parts of every election cycle for political nerds like me is following the "Open Seat" races where the incumbent has retired, been defeated in his or her primary, or foregone re-election to seek another office. This year there are a great deal of competitive open seat races (seats either party could win in November). I have already discussed a number of these races in my "U.S. House Race Spotlight" series. I will continue my attempt to feature every competitive House race on this blog before Election Day.
This post is about the 18 races I have identified as non-competitive open seats. In each of these 18 seats, the incumbent will not be on the ballot, but (barring an absolute catastrophe) the seat will remain in the hands of the party currently holding it. This post will introduce you to 18 new faces who are almost certain to be sworn in as U.S. Representatives come January 2011.
(1) Indiana 3
The District: The 3rd takes in the northeast corner of the Hoosier State. It includes most of Allen County, including the city of Fort Wayne. The district also includes most of economically depressed Elkhart County, although more Democratic-leaning precincts in the city of Elkhart were parceled off into the neighboring 2nd district. This part of Indiana has been a Republican stronghold since the Civil War and it continues to be so today, voting for George Bush 68%-31% in 2004 and favoring John McCain 56%-43% even while Barack Obama carried Indiana in 2008.
Who's Leaving: Republican Mark Souder resigned in May after his affair with a part-time staff member became public. Souder was initially elected in the GOP wave of 1994 and held the conservative seat with relative ease for 15+ years. Souder, a Christian conservative, announced his resignation in order to repair his family life and his faith. The sudden resignation came after Souder had won a contested primary for re-election.
Who's Coming: Souder's resignation created a brief three and a half week campaign for the Republican nomination in the 3rd. A total of 15 candidates threw their hats in the ring with the winner being determined by a June caucus of 400 district party precinct committee members. After two ballots, the Republicans nominated 34 year old State Senator Marlin Stutzman. Stutzman had risen to prominence during his eight month campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator. Ultimately, Stutzman lost the five candidate May U.S. Senate primary to former Senator Dan Coats 39%-29%.
Stutzman's energetic Senate campaign won him the respect of many Indiana Republicans and served him well in securing the support of a majority of the party precinct committee members at the special caucus. A strong social and fiscal conservative, Stutzman appears well suited to this conservative district. His strong showing in the Senatorial primary, his youthful energy, and his conservative zest will make Stutzman a face to watch in the 112th Congress.
(2) Michigan 13
The District: Michigan's 13th district is made up of most of inner city Detroit and some working class suburbs to the northeast and south of the city. The district is one of the poorest in the nation, with over 30% of the district's population living below the poverty line. Almost 60% of the district's rapidly declining population is African-American. It is one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the country, favoring Barack Obama by an 84%-16% margin in the 2008 Presidential election.
Who's Leaving: The 12-year congressional career of liberal Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will come to its end at the close of this year. Kilpatrick, who initially came to office by defeating Rep. Barbara Rose-Collins in the 1996 Democratic primary, suffered a defeat in the August Democratic primary at the hands of State Senator Hansen Clarke. Kilpatrick, a former leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, had been a lightning rod in Detroit since her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, resigned from office in 2008 after a scandal involving his relationship with a female aide.
Kilpatrick narrowly survived the Democratic primary in 2008, garnering 39% of the vote in a three-way race. This year, Clarke was able to defeat Kilpatrick by just over 3,000 votes in a low turnout primary election.
Who's Coming: State Senator Hansen Clarke will be the new representative in the 13th district. Clarke grew up on Detroit's east side where he was raised by a single mother who worked as a school crossing guard. Clarke received a scholarship to attend Cornell, where he majored in painting. Clarke later received his law degree from Georgetown. After law school, Clarke returned to Detroit and was elected to the Michigan House for three terms prior to being elected to the Michigan Senate in 2008.
Clarke will be a fresh face to represent this impoverished and population declining district. Due to Voting Rights Act concerns, it is unlikely that redistricters will eliminate this district even though its population has dropped by approximately 9% in the last decade. However, Clarke will face a district with many different constituents in 2012 and he may well be thrown into a district with another Democrat. Whether Clarke can become a force on Capitol Hill may well depend on how redistricting effects the district.
(3) South Carolina 4
The District: South Carolina's 4th district is one of the most conservative districts in the country. The 4th includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg and their same named counties as well as part of two more rural counties. The 4th voted for John McCain 60%-38% in 2008 with white voters favoring the GOP candidate by an even higher margin.
Who's Leaving: Congressman Bob Inglis represented the 4th from 1993-1998 and has represented the district again since his election in 2004. Inglis, a lawyer from Greenville, compiled a conservative voting record during his first six years in Congress. After running unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 1998, Inglis returned to his law practice until his successful return to the House in 2004.
During his second tenure, Inglis veered toward the center, a dangerous move in a strongly conservative district. Inglis voted against the troop surge in Iraq and became one of the loudest Republican voices warning of the dangers of global warming. In the 111th Congress, Inglis backed the unpopular Wall Street bailout bill as well as controversially voted to censure fellow South Carolina Representative Joe Wilson for his "You lie" statement during President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress. Inglis prevailed by a 2-to-1 margin against an underfunded GOP primary challenge in 2008. This year Inglis was not so lucky. In the June Republican primary, Inglis received only 27% of the vote against four challengers. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy, running to Inglis's right, garnered 39% of the vote. In the runoff election two weeks later, Gowdy trounced Inglis 71%-29% to secure the GOP nomination for the general election.
Who's Coming: Trey Gowdy will be the new 4th district representative in the 112th Congress. Gowdy's overwhelming defeat of incumbent Bob Inglis in the Republican primary runoff virtually assures him of election in the fall. Gowdy, the son of a doctor, served as a federal prosecutor in Greenville prior to being elected 7th Circuit (Spartanburg County) Solicitor in 2000.
Gowdy campaigned as a strong cultural and economic conservative and repeatedly hammered Inglis as out of touch with this conservative district. Gowdy's message resonated with Republican voters. Gowdy will no doubt be a strong conservative voice in the 112th Congress.
This post is about the 18 races I have identified as non-competitive open seats. In each of these 18 seats, the incumbent will not be on the ballot, but (barring an absolute catastrophe) the seat will remain in the hands of the party currently holding it. This post will introduce you to 18 new faces who are almost certain to be sworn in as U.S. Representatives come January 2011.
(1) Indiana 3
The District: The 3rd takes in the northeast corner of the Hoosier State. It includes most of Allen County, including the city of Fort Wayne. The district also includes most of economically depressed Elkhart County, although more Democratic-leaning precincts in the city of Elkhart were parceled off into the neighboring 2nd district. This part of Indiana has been a Republican stronghold since the Civil War and it continues to be so today, voting for George Bush 68%-31% in 2004 and favoring John McCain 56%-43% even while Barack Obama carried Indiana in 2008.
Who's Leaving: Republican Mark Souder resigned in May after his affair with a part-time staff member became public. Souder was initially elected in the GOP wave of 1994 and held the conservative seat with relative ease for 15+ years. Souder, a Christian conservative, announced his resignation in order to repair his family life and his faith. The sudden resignation came after Souder had won a contested primary for re-election.
Who's Coming: Souder's resignation created a brief three and a half week campaign for the Republican nomination in the 3rd. A total of 15 candidates threw their hats in the ring with the winner being determined by a June caucus of 400 district party precinct committee members. After two ballots, the Republicans nominated 34 year old State Senator Marlin Stutzman. Stutzman had risen to prominence during his eight month campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator. Ultimately, Stutzman lost the five candidate May U.S. Senate primary to former Senator Dan Coats 39%-29%.
Stutzman's energetic Senate campaign won him the respect of many Indiana Republicans and served him well in securing the support of a majority of the party precinct committee members at the special caucus. A strong social and fiscal conservative, Stutzman appears well suited to this conservative district. His strong showing in the Senatorial primary, his youthful energy, and his conservative zest will make Stutzman a face to watch in the 112th Congress.
(2) Michigan 13
The District: Michigan's 13th district is made up of most of inner city Detroit and some working class suburbs to the northeast and south of the city. The district is one of the poorest in the nation, with over 30% of the district's population living below the poverty line. Almost 60% of the district's rapidly declining population is African-American. It is one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the country, favoring Barack Obama by an 84%-16% margin in the 2008 Presidential election.
Who's Leaving: The 12-year congressional career of liberal Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will come to its end at the close of this year. Kilpatrick, who initially came to office by defeating Rep. Barbara Rose-Collins in the 1996 Democratic primary, suffered a defeat in the August Democratic primary at the hands of State Senator Hansen Clarke. Kilpatrick, a former leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, had been a lightning rod in Detroit since her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, resigned from office in 2008 after a scandal involving his relationship with a female aide.
Kilpatrick narrowly survived the Democratic primary in 2008, garnering 39% of the vote in a three-way race. This year, Clarke was able to defeat Kilpatrick by just over 3,000 votes in a low turnout primary election.
Who's Coming: State Senator Hansen Clarke will be the new representative in the 13th district. Clarke grew up on Detroit's east side where he was raised by a single mother who worked as a school crossing guard. Clarke received a scholarship to attend Cornell, where he majored in painting. Clarke later received his law degree from Georgetown. After law school, Clarke returned to Detroit and was elected to the Michigan House for three terms prior to being elected to the Michigan Senate in 2008.
Clarke will be a fresh face to represent this impoverished and population declining district. Due to Voting Rights Act concerns, it is unlikely that redistricters will eliminate this district even though its population has dropped by approximately 9% in the last decade. However, Clarke will face a district with many different constituents in 2012 and he may well be thrown into a district with another Democrat. Whether Clarke can become a force on Capitol Hill may well depend on how redistricting effects the district.
(3) South Carolina 4
The District: South Carolina's 4th district is one of the most conservative districts in the country. The 4th includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg and their same named counties as well as part of two more rural counties. The 4th voted for John McCain 60%-38% in 2008 with white voters favoring the GOP candidate by an even higher margin.
Who's Leaving: Congressman Bob Inglis represented the 4th from 1993-1998 and has represented the district again since his election in 2004. Inglis, a lawyer from Greenville, compiled a conservative voting record during his first six years in Congress. After running unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 1998, Inglis returned to his law practice until his successful return to the House in 2004.
During his second tenure, Inglis veered toward the center, a dangerous move in a strongly conservative district. Inglis voted against the troop surge in Iraq and became one of the loudest Republican voices warning of the dangers of global warming. In the 111th Congress, Inglis backed the unpopular Wall Street bailout bill as well as controversially voted to censure fellow South Carolina Representative Joe Wilson for his "You lie" statement during President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress. Inglis prevailed by a 2-to-1 margin against an underfunded GOP primary challenge in 2008. This year Inglis was not so lucky. In the June Republican primary, Inglis received only 27% of the vote against four challengers. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy, running to Inglis's right, garnered 39% of the vote. In the runoff election two weeks later, Gowdy trounced Inglis 71%-29% to secure the GOP nomination for the general election.
Who's Coming: Trey Gowdy will be the new 4th district representative in the 112th Congress. Gowdy's overwhelming defeat of incumbent Bob Inglis in the Republican primary runoff virtually assures him of election in the fall. Gowdy, the son of a doctor, served as a federal prosecutor in Greenville prior to being elected 7th Circuit (Spartanburg County) Solicitor in 2000.
Gowdy campaigned as a strong cultural and economic conservative and repeatedly hammered Inglis as out of touch with this conservative district. Gowdy's message resonated with Republican voters. Gowdy will no doubt be a strong conservative voice in the 112th Congress.
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