Seventeen seats in the 34-member Missouri State Senate will be up for grabs this November. Republicans currently have 23 Senate seats and Democrats have just 11 seats. Using the same analysis I used for the Missouri House (see yesterday's post), I see absolutely no chance of Democrats coming anywhere near a Senate majority this November.
Of the 17 Senate seats that are not up for election this year, 13 are held by Republicans and only 4 are held by Democrats. Additionally, 7 of the Senate seats up for election this fall are "Safe Republican" seats where the GOP candidate is either unopposed, faces only minor party competition, or represents a district so heavily Republican that the Democratic candidate has no chance to win. This means that Republicans are virtually guaranteed to have at a bare minimum 20 Senate seats after the November election. Conversely, only 3 seats up for grabs this November are "Safe Democrat" seats.
According to my prognostications, there are only 7 competitive Missouri Senate races this cycle. Of these seven, four are seats currently held by Democrats and three are seats currently held by Republicans. Here is a look at those 7 races.
22nd District: Leans Democrat
Sen. Ryan McKenna (D)
Greg Zotta (R)
24th District: Leans Democrat
Barbara Fraser (D)
John Lamping (R)
16th District: Toss-Up
Sen. Frank Barnitz (D)
Dan Brown (R)
18th District: Toss-Up
Sen. Wes Shoemyer (D)
Brian Munzlinger (R)
34th District: Leans Republican
Rob Schaaf (R)
Martin Rucker (D)
2nd District: Likely Republican
Sen. Scott Rupp (R)
Don Crozier (D)
30th District: Likely Republican
Bob Dixon (R)
Michael Hoeman (D)
I will profile each of these 7 races more in depth in the coming weeks.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Missouri House Race Spotlight - 24th District
In four elections since 2002, Missouri's 24th district has twice elected a Democrat and twice elected a Republican. The district will be the site of a highly competitive race for the fifth straight election cycle. The 24th district contains roughly the southern half of Boone County. Most of the 24th's population can be found on the south side of the City of Columbia. As Columbia's population has grown in the last century, the south side has filled up with new subdivisions. Additionally, the City of Ashland in southern Boone County has doubled in population during the last 10 years to an estimated population of nearly 4,000.
Columbia, with the presence of the University of Missouri, is consistently liberal in its politics. However, the affluent young professionals that populate the south side are much less uniformly liberal than the denizens of central and northern Columbia. Boone County outside of Columbia tends to favor Republicans. Columbia has two heavily Democratic districts in the 23rd and the 25th, but the 24th is much more competitive between the parties.
The 24th elected Democrat Chuck Graham in 2002. When Graham was elected to the State Senate in 2004, the 24th elected Republican Ed Robb with 56% of the vote. In 2006, a tough year for Republicans everywhere, Robb held on to the seat by 221 votes. In 2008, Robb was not so fortune and he fell to former State Representative Chris Kelly 51%-49%.
Kelly is a well-known Boone County politician. He was elected Boone County Clerk in 1976 and served in that capacity until 1982. In 1982, Kelly was first elected to the Missouri House where he served until 1994. In his last two terms, Kelly was Chairman of the Budget Committee. After leaving the Missouri House, Kelly chaired the Missouri Labor and Industrial Relations Commission until 2000 when he was elected as Boone County Associate Court Judge. Kelly retired from the bench in 2006 and earned a return to Jefferson City by defeating Robb in 2008.
This year the Republican nominee to take on Kelly is Columbia City Council member Laura Nauser. Nauser is a mother of two who currently works in the Boone County Juvenile Office. Nauser was first elected to the Columbia City Council in 2005 where she represents a southern Columbia ward.
The 24th's balance between the parties makes this a race to watch in November. Boone County Republicans would have liked to have had Robb run again, but he elected to run for a seat on the Boone County Commission. In Nauser, however, the GOP has found a candidate with both experience and conservative credentials who appears to have what it takes to flip this seat back to the Republicans in November.
Columbia, with the presence of the University of Missouri, is consistently liberal in its politics. However, the affluent young professionals that populate the south side are much less uniformly liberal than the denizens of central and northern Columbia. Boone County outside of Columbia tends to favor Republicans. Columbia has two heavily Democratic districts in the 23rd and the 25th, but the 24th is much more competitive between the parties.
The 24th elected Democrat Chuck Graham in 2002. When Graham was elected to the State Senate in 2004, the 24th elected Republican Ed Robb with 56% of the vote. In 2006, a tough year for Republicans everywhere, Robb held on to the seat by 221 votes. In 2008, Robb was not so fortune and he fell to former State Representative Chris Kelly 51%-49%.
Kelly is a well-known Boone County politician. He was elected Boone County Clerk in 1976 and served in that capacity until 1982. In 1982, Kelly was first elected to the Missouri House where he served until 1994. In his last two terms, Kelly was Chairman of the Budget Committee. After leaving the Missouri House, Kelly chaired the Missouri Labor and Industrial Relations Commission until 2000 when he was elected as Boone County Associate Court Judge. Kelly retired from the bench in 2006 and earned a return to Jefferson City by defeating Robb in 2008.
This year the Republican nominee to take on Kelly is Columbia City Council member Laura Nauser. Nauser is a mother of two who currently works in the Boone County Juvenile Office. Nauser was first elected to the Columbia City Council in 2005 where she represents a southern Columbia ward.
The 24th's balance between the parties makes this a race to watch in November. Boone County Republicans would have liked to have had Robb run again, but he elected to run for a seat on the Boone County Commission. In Nauser, however, the GOP has found a candidate with both experience and conservative credentials who appears to have what it takes to flip this seat back to the Republicans in November.
Missouri House Race Spotlight - 17th District
Missouri's 17th House district will be the site of the third consecutive matchup between two candidates who must be getting to be quite familiar with each other. The 17th is comprised of a large amount of the land area of St. Charles County. The district includes the northern portions of the cities of O'Fallon, St. Peters, and St. Charles as well as unincorporated areas in northern St. Charles County wrapping around to the Illinois border.
St. Charles County is the most affluent county in Missouri and O'Fallon, St. Peters, and St. Charles have filled up in recent years as young professionals have fled St. Louis City in groves. The political leanings of St. Charles County are Republican. Of the 7 Missouri house districts in St. Charles County, 6 are currently represented by Republicans. John McCain carried St. Charles County 54%-45% in 2008. However, Democrat Jay Nixon carried St. Charles County by a nearly identical margin in the Governor's race.
The 17th is split almost evenly between the parties. Republican Vicki Schneider, a small business owner from O'Fallon, won the district in 2002, 2004, and 2006 with 50%, 57%, and 51% of the vote. In 2006, Schneider faced St. Charles machinist Kenny Biermann. Schneider prevailed in that contest by less than 300 votes. In 2008, Biermann once again challenged Schneider. This time, the Democratic tide was strong enough that Biermann defeated Schneider by a whopping 73 votes out of over 21,000 cast.
2010 will be the rubber match between the two candidates. Biermann's miniscule margin of victory makes him a prime target for Missouri Republicans. Schneider certainly has the name recognition in the district that is necessary for a win in November. If 2010 pans out to be a solid GOP year in Missouri, it is quite likely that Schneider will reclaim her seat in the Missouri House.
St. Charles County is the most affluent county in Missouri and O'Fallon, St. Peters, and St. Charles have filled up in recent years as young professionals have fled St. Louis City in groves. The political leanings of St. Charles County are Republican. Of the 7 Missouri house districts in St. Charles County, 6 are currently represented by Republicans. John McCain carried St. Charles County 54%-45% in 2008. However, Democrat Jay Nixon carried St. Charles County by a nearly identical margin in the Governor's race.
The 17th is split almost evenly between the parties. Republican Vicki Schneider, a small business owner from O'Fallon, won the district in 2002, 2004, and 2006 with 50%, 57%, and 51% of the vote. In 2006, Schneider faced St. Charles machinist Kenny Biermann. Schneider prevailed in that contest by less than 300 votes. In 2008, Biermann once again challenged Schneider. This time, the Democratic tide was strong enough that Biermann defeated Schneider by a whopping 73 votes out of over 21,000 cast.
2010 will be the rubber match between the two candidates. Biermann's miniscule margin of victory makes him a prime target for Missouri Republicans. Schneider certainly has the name recognition in the district that is necessary for a win in November. If 2010 pans out to be a solid GOP year in Missouri, it is quite likely that Schneider will reclaim her seat in the Missouri House.
Missouri House Race Spotlight - 2nd District
The election to represent Missouri's 2nd House District is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races of 2010.
The 2nd takes in a slice of Northern Missouri including virtually all of Adair County (excepting one precinct that falls into the 1st), all of Putnam County, and over half of Sullivan County. Adair County is centered on Kirksville, a city of over 16,000 that is probably best known as the home of Truman State University. Around two-thirds of Adair County's total population live in the Kirksville city limits. Adair casts about 60% of the votes in the 2nd, with Putnam casting around 30% and Sullivan accounting for around 10%.
Kirksville, with the presence of Truman State, tends to have some liberal leanings. Adair County as a whole almost mirrored Missouri statewide in the 2008 Presidential election, voting for John McCain 49%-48% over Barack Obama. Putnam County is heavily Republican both locally and nationally. In the 2010 primary there were 1,314 Republican votes cast in Putnam County for 2nd district representative and only 65 Democrat votes for that office. The Sullivan County portion of the district is a mixed bag; it tends to vote Republican in national elections, but often supports Democrats for local office.
In 2006 when popular Republican incumbent Bob Behnen was term limited, Kirksville nurse and Truman State Nursing Professor Rebecca McClanahan was elected to represent the 2nd district by a 51%-49% margin. McClanahan has focused on a triumvirate of issues important to the 2nd during her two terms in office: health care, higher education, and agriculture. She has voted a liberal line on most cultural issues. McClanahan was re-elected 55%-45% in 2008, carrying Adair County by over 1,500 votes, carrying the Sullivan County portion of the district, but losing in Putnam County.
Republican Zach Wyatt will be McClanahan's 2010 opponent. Wyatt grew up in Novinger and Green Castle in rural Adair County. After graduating from Adair County High School, Wyatt served in the U.S. Air Force where he served an an Airborne Chechen/Russian/Ukrainian linguist. For two years, Wyatt taught Ukrainian at Royal Air Force Base in the United Kingdom. Wyatt is running on a conservative platform emphasizing education, lower taxes, and conservative social causes.
In the August primary, Wyatt received approximately 800 more votes than McClanahan, which is testament to the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats heading into the November elections. Currently, McClanahan is probably a slight favorite due to her base in the educational and medical communities in Kirksville. However, Wyatt is an energetic candidate with strong credentials. In what is shaping up to be a Republican year in Missouri, Wyatt certainly has a chance to unseat the two-term incumbent.
The 2nd takes in a slice of Northern Missouri including virtually all of Adair County (excepting one precinct that falls into the 1st), all of Putnam County, and over half of Sullivan County. Adair County is centered on Kirksville, a city of over 16,000 that is probably best known as the home of Truman State University. Around two-thirds of Adair County's total population live in the Kirksville city limits. Adair casts about 60% of the votes in the 2nd, with Putnam casting around 30% and Sullivan accounting for around 10%.
Kirksville, with the presence of Truman State, tends to have some liberal leanings. Adair County as a whole almost mirrored Missouri statewide in the 2008 Presidential election, voting for John McCain 49%-48% over Barack Obama. Putnam County is heavily Republican both locally and nationally. In the 2010 primary there were 1,314 Republican votes cast in Putnam County for 2nd district representative and only 65 Democrat votes for that office. The Sullivan County portion of the district is a mixed bag; it tends to vote Republican in national elections, but often supports Democrats for local office.
In 2006 when popular Republican incumbent Bob Behnen was term limited, Kirksville nurse and Truman State Nursing Professor Rebecca McClanahan was elected to represent the 2nd district by a 51%-49% margin. McClanahan has focused on a triumvirate of issues important to the 2nd during her two terms in office: health care, higher education, and agriculture. She has voted a liberal line on most cultural issues. McClanahan was re-elected 55%-45% in 2008, carrying Adair County by over 1,500 votes, carrying the Sullivan County portion of the district, but losing in Putnam County.
Republican Zach Wyatt will be McClanahan's 2010 opponent. Wyatt grew up in Novinger and Green Castle in rural Adair County. After graduating from Adair County High School, Wyatt served in the U.S. Air Force where he served an an Airborne Chechen/Russian/Ukrainian linguist. For two years, Wyatt taught Ukrainian at Royal Air Force Base in the United Kingdom. Wyatt is running on a conservative platform emphasizing education, lower taxes, and conservative social causes.
In the August primary, Wyatt received approximately 800 more votes than McClanahan, which is testament to the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats heading into the November elections. Currently, McClanahan is probably a slight favorite due to her base in the educational and medical communities in Kirksville. However, Wyatt is an energetic candidate with strong credentials. In what is shaping up to be a Republican year in Missouri, Wyatt certainly has a chance to unseat the two-term incumbent.
Missouri State House Competitive Race Breakdown
This November all 163 seats in the Missouri House of Representatives will be up for election. Currently, Republicans represent 89 seats in the Missouri House and Democrats represent 74 seats. All indications are that 2010 will be a strong year for Republicans in Missouri. Republicans outvoted Democrats by huge numbers in the August 3 primary and every recent poll has shown Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt with a significant lead over his Democratic opponent, Robin Carnahan. Missouri voters overwhelming rejection of the Obama Health Care plan via proposition vote in August shows how unpopular the crowning jewel of Obama's first two years is with Show-Me State voters.
Missouri House members are subject to term limits which allow them to serve only four 2-year terms consecutively. The result of term limits is that there are many open seat races (no incumbent on the ballot) for the Missouri House every election cycle as incumbents finish their four terms in office. Open seats are historically much more competitive than seats where an incumbent is on the ballot.
I have rated every one of the 163 Missouri House races based on an analysis of the voting preferences of that district since 2002 and presence or non-presence of an incumbent on the ballot with an advantage given to Republicans due to the factors working in their favor this year. Admittedly, there is some guesswork involved as polling data is not readily available for Missouri House races!
I have placed each Missouri House district in one of the following categories: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican), Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat), Leans Democrat, Likely Democrat, Safe Democrat. I have concluded that 65 seats are "Safe Republican" seats where the Republican candidate is running unopposed, faces only minor party competition, or the district so heavily favors Republicans that the Democratic candidate has no chance to win. On the flip side, I have concluded that 40 seats are "Safe Democrat" seats for the same reasons.
This leaves 57 Missouri House seats that I have categorized as "competitive" in November. Of these seats, 34 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans. Due to the prevailing political winds this year, I would say that many of the races rated "Likely Republican" and "Lean Republican" will stay in Republican hands. Conversely, many of the races rated "Likely Democrat" or "Lean Democrat" have the strong potential to become toss-ups before Election Day. If any of my readers have any insight to add about any of these races, I would love to hear from you.
Here is a list of the 57 competitive Missouri House races based on my current projections.
Likely Democrat (22)
D6: (OPEN)
Carl Thomson (D)
Lindell Shumake (R)
D11:
Rep. Ed Schieffer (D)
Mike Clynch (R)
D27:
Rep. Pat Conway (D)
Jason Gregory (R)
D29: (OPEN)
Bill Caldwell (D)
Galen Higdon (R)
D31 (OPEN)
Jay Swearingen (D)
Matthew Thompson (R)
D46: (OPEN)
Kevin McManus (D)
Rodney Williams (R)
D53: (OPEN)
Diane Egger (D)
Brent Lasater (R)
D66: (OPEN)
Genise Montecillo (D)
Bill Hartzog (R)
D75:
Rep. Bert Atkins (D)
Bryan Koen (R)
D78:
Rep. Margo McNeil (D)
Glen Lindemann (R)
D79: (OPEN)
Mary Nichols (D)
Dan Johnson (R)
D90:
Rep. Sam Komo (D)
John McCaherty (R)
D96: (OPEN)
Scott Sifton (D)
Tony Leech (R)
D101:
Rep. Tim Meadows (D)
Charles Huey (R)
D102:
Rep. Jeff Roorda (D)
Paul Wieland (R)
D105:
Rep. Michael Frame (D)
Paul Curtman (R)
D107:
Rep. Linda Fischer (D)
John Fischer (R)
D110: (OPEN)
Ben Harris (D)
Carrie Cabral (R)
D137:
Rep. Charlie Norr (D)
Melissa Leach (R)
D138:
Rep. Sara Lampe (D)
John Sellars (R)
D152: (OPEN)
Shane Van Steenis (D)
Paul Fitzwater (R)
D163:
Rep. Tom Todd (D)
Kent Hampton (R)
Lean Democrat (9)
D2:
Rep. Rebecca McClanahan (D)
Zachary Wyatt (R)
D8:
Rep. Tom Shively (D)
William Foster (R)
D10: (OPEN)
Linda Witte (D)
Jay Houghton (R)
D32:
Rep. Jason Grill (D)
Ron Schieber (R)
D52: (OPEN)
Robbie Makinen (D)
Noel Torpey (R)
D85:
Rep. Vicki Englund (D)
Cloria Brown (R)
D100: (OPEN)
Andrew Spavale (D)
Marsha Haefner (R)
D124:
Rep. Luke Scavuzzo (D)
Rick Brattin (R)
D161:
Rep. Steve Hodges (D)
Ron McCormick (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat) (3)
D17:
Rep. Kenny Biermann (D)
Vicki Schneider (R)
D24:
Rep. Chris Kelly (D)
Laura Nauser (R)
D91:
Rep. Jeanne Kirkton (D)
Rick Magee (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican) (1)
D22: (OPEN)
Randy Asbury (R)
Doug Galaske (D)
Lean Republican (7)
D1: (OPEN)
Craig Redmon (R)
Keri Cottrell (D)
D5: (OPEN)
Glen Klippenstein (R)
Judy Wright (D)
D21: (OPEN)
John Cauthorn (R)
Kelly Schultz (D)
D33:
Rep. Jerry Nolte (R)
Jim Stoufer (D)
D48: (OPEN)
Gary Cross (R)
Gavin Fletchall (D)
D120:
Rep. Scott Largent (R)
Zac Maggi (D)
D121:
Rep. Denny Hoskins (R)
Courtney Cole (D)
Likely Republican (15)
D7:
Rep. Mike Lair (R)
Dale Toms (D)
D19: (OPEN)
Kurt Bahr (R)
Matt Simmons (D)
D28: (OPEN)
Delus Johnson (R)
Mark Sheehan (D)
D30: (OPEN)
Nick Marshall (R)
Lexi Norris (D)
D34: (OPEN)
Myron Neth (R)
Mark Ellebracht (D)
D35: (OPEN)
T.J. Berry (R)
Jim Baldwin (D)
D36:
Rep. Bob Nance (R)
Barbara Lanning (D)
D38:
Rep. Ryan Silvey (R)
Debbie Colozza (D)
D54: (OPEN)
Jeanie Lauer (R)
John Bullard, Jr. (D)
D55: (OPEN)
Sheila Solon (R)
Clay Rodgers (D)
D94:
Rep. Rick Stream (R)
Deb Lavender (D)
D97: (OPEN)
Gary Fuhr (R)
Jan Polizzi (D)
D122:
Rep. Mike McGhee (R)
Holmes Osborne (D)
D149: (OPEN)
Keith Frederick (R)
Paul Long (D)
D153: (OPEN)
Steve Cookson (R)
George Meyers (D)
Missouri House members are subject to term limits which allow them to serve only four 2-year terms consecutively. The result of term limits is that there are many open seat races (no incumbent on the ballot) for the Missouri House every election cycle as incumbents finish their four terms in office. Open seats are historically much more competitive than seats where an incumbent is on the ballot.
I have rated every one of the 163 Missouri House races based on an analysis of the voting preferences of that district since 2002 and presence or non-presence of an incumbent on the ballot with an advantage given to Republicans due to the factors working in their favor this year. Admittedly, there is some guesswork involved as polling data is not readily available for Missouri House races!
I have placed each Missouri House district in one of the following categories: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican), Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat), Leans Democrat, Likely Democrat, Safe Democrat. I have concluded that 65 seats are "Safe Republican" seats where the Republican candidate is running unopposed, faces only minor party competition, or the district so heavily favors Republicans that the Democratic candidate has no chance to win. On the flip side, I have concluded that 40 seats are "Safe Democrat" seats for the same reasons.
This leaves 57 Missouri House seats that I have categorized as "competitive" in November. Of these seats, 34 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans. Due to the prevailing political winds this year, I would say that many of the races rated "Likely Republican" and "Lean Republican" will stay in Republican hands. Conversely, many of the races rated "Likely Democrat" or "Lean Democrat" have the strong potential to become toss-ups before Election Day. If any of my readers have any insight to add about any of these races, I would love to hear from you.
Here is a list of the 57 competitive Missouri House races based on my current projections.
Likely Democrat (22)
D6: (OPEN)
Carl Thomson (D)
Lindell Shumake (R)
D11:
Rep. Ed Schieffer (D)
Mike Clynch (R)
D27:
Rep. Pat Conway (D)
Jason Gregory (R)
D29: (OPEN)
Bill Caldwell (D)
Galen Higdon (R)
D31 (OPEN)
Jay Swearingen (D)
Matthew Thompson (R)
D46: (OPEN)
Kevin McManus (D)
Rodney Williams (R)
D53: (OPEN)
Diane Egger (D)
Brent Lasater (R)
D66: (OPEN)
Genise Montecillo (D)
Bill Hartzog (R)
D75:
Rep. Bert Atkins (D)
Bryan Koen (R)
D78:
Rep. Margo McNeil (D)
Glen Lindemann (R)
D79: (OPEN)
Mary Nichols (D)
Dan Johnson (R)
D90:
Rep. Sam Komo (D)
John McCaherty (R)
D96: (OPEN)
Scott Sifton (D)
Tony Leech (R)
D101:
Rep. Tim Meadows (D)
Charles Huey (R)
D102:
Rep. Jeff Roorda (D)
Paul Wieland (R)
D105:
Rep. Michael Frame (D)
Paul Curtman (R)
D107:
Rep. Linda Fischer (D)
John Fischer (R)
D110: (OPEN)
Ben Harris (D)
Carrie Cabral (R)
D137:
Rep. Charlie Norr (D)
Melissa Leach (R)
D138:
Rep. Sara Lampe (D)
John Sellars (R)
D152: (OPEN)
Shane Van Steenis (D)
Paul Fitzwater (R)
D163:
Rep. Tom Todd (D)
Kent Hampton (R)
Lean Democrat (9)
D2:
Rep. Rebecca McClanahan (D)
Zachary Wyatt (R)
D8:
Rep. Tom Shively (D)
William Foster (R)
D10: (OPEN)
Linda Witte (D)
Jay Houghton (R)
D32:
Rep. Jason Grill (D)
Ron Schieber (R)
D52: (OPEN)
Robbie Makinen (D)
Noel Torpey (R)
D85:
Rep. Vicki Englund (D)
Cloria Brown (R)
D100: (OPEN)
Andrew Spavale (D)
Marsha Haefner (R)
D124:
Rep. Luke Scavuzzo (D)
Rick Brattin (R)
D161:
Rep. Steve Hodges (D)
Ron McCormick (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat) (3)
D17:
Rep. Kenny Biermann (D)
Vicki Schneider (R)
D24:
Rep. Chris Kelly (D)
Laura Nauser (R)
D91:
Rep. Jeanne Kirkton (D)
Rick Magee (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican) (1)
D22: (OPEN)
Randy Asbury (R)
Doug Galaske (D)
Lean Republican (7)
D1: (OPEN)
Craig Redmon (R)
Keri Cottrell (D)
D5: (OPEN)
Glen Klippenstein (R)
Judy Wright (D)
D21: (OPEN)
John Cauthorn (R)
Kelly Schultz (D)
D33:
Rep. Jerry Nolte (R)
Jim Stoufer (D)
D48: (OPEN)
Gary Cross (R)
Gavin Fletchall (D)
D120:
Rep. Scott Largent (R)
Zac Maggi (D)
D121:
Rep. Denny Hoskins (R)
Courtney Cole (D)
Likely Republican (15)
D7:
Rep. Mike Lair (R)
Dale Toms (D)
D19: (OPEN)
Kurt Bahr (R)
Matt Simmons (D)
D28: (OPEN)
Delus Johnson (R)
Mark Sheehan (D)
D30: (OPEN)
Nick Marshall (R)
Lexi Norris (D)
D34: (OPEN)
Myron Neth (R)
Mark Ellebracht (D)
D35: (OPEN)
T.J. Berry (R)
Jim Baldwin (D)
D36:
Rep. Bob Nance (R)
Barbara Lanning (D)
D38:
Rep. Ryan Silvey (R)
Debbie Colozza (D)
D54: (OPEN)
Jeanie Lauer (R)
John Bullard, Jr. (D)
D55: (OPEN)
Sheila Solon (R)
Clay Rodgers (D)
D94:
Rep. Rick Stream (R)
Deb Lavender (D)
D97: (OPEN)
Gary Fuhr (R)
Jan Polizzi (D)
D122:
Rep. Mike McGhee (R)
Holmes Osborne (D)
D149: (OPEN)
Keith Frederick (R)
Paul Long (D)
D153: (OPEN)
Steve Cookson (R)
George Meyers (D)
Sunday, August 29, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - North Dakota's At-Large District
If current projections hold up, North Dakota's lone congressional district could very well be the site of the defeat of one of the most tenured and powerful members of the House Democratic Caucus. North Dakota voters have long favored the GOP in Presidential elections, mostly due to the culturally liberalism of the national Democrat Party. Despite its Republican leanings, North Dakota has sent three Democrats to represent it in Congress for the last 18 years: U.S. Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad and Representative Earl Pomeroy.
Republicans are virtually assured of ending this 18-year frustration as Dorgan has retired and popular Republican Governor John Hoeven is a safe bet to win this year's Senate election. Republicans are also giddy about their opportunity to unseat Pomeroy, who despite his relatively liberal voting record has managed to be elected as U.S. Representative at-large 9 times in North Dakota.
Since his initial election to the House in 1992, Pomeroy has survived tough elections in touch political environments (see 1994 when Pomeroy won his first re-election to the seat with 52%, surviving the GOP wave that knocked out so many Democrat incumbents that year) and tough elections against well-financed opponents (see 2002 when Pomeroy once again prevailed with 52% against Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh). Meanwhile, Pomeroy has become a powerful member of the House Democratic Caucus. Currently, Pomeroy is the only House member to have seats on both the Ways and Means Committee and the Agriculture Committee.
Republicans nominated long-time State Representative and Fargo businessman Rick Berg to challenge Pomeroy this November. Berg has represented a Fargo-based North Dakota House district for over 25 years, during which he has served as both House Majority Leader and Speaker. Berg is running on a down-the-line conservative platform and has been freely attempting to link Pomeroy with President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, both of whom are exceedingly unpopular in North Dakota.
Another major issue in the general election will be health care. Pomeroy, unlike many of his Democratic colleagues who represent Republican-leaning districts, voted in favor of the Obama Health Care package. The so-called "ObamaCare" plan is extremely unpopular in North Dakota. Berg has made repeal of the health care bill a key tenet is his campaign.
The Berg-Pomeroy race will no doubt be one of the most competitive and costly races in 2010. North Dakota voters are likely to be saturated with advertising in the next couple months as both the DCCC and the NRCC have pledged to target this district. Pomeroy, as a long-serving incumbent, enjoys a considerable cash on hand advantage over Berg, but the unpopularity of national Democrats in North Dakota is so high that no matter the money spent, Pomeroy may not be able to survive.
Rasmussen has been polling this race for several months and every poll has showed Berg with a lead of between 3-9%, with the latest poll of likely voters showing Berg leading 53%-44%. For a challenger to be consistently leading in a series of polls by such margins, the incumbent is obviously in a very difficult situation. Pomeroy has won tough, close elections before, but it remains to be seen if he can pull another rabbit out of his hat in what is shaping up to be one of the worst political environments in recent memory for North Dakota Democrats.
Republicans are virtually assured of ending this 18-year frustration as Dorgan has retired and popular Republican Governor John Hoeven is a safe bet to win this year's Senate election. Republicans are also giddy about their opportunity to unseat Pomeroy, who despite his relatively liberal voting record has managed to be elected as U.S. Representative at-large 9 times in North Dakota.
Since his initial election to the House in 1992, Pomeroy has survived tough elections in touch political environments (see 1994 when Pomeroy won his first re-election to the seat with 52%, surviving the GOP wave that knocked out so many Democrat incumbents that year) and tough elections against well-financed opponents (see 2002 when Pomeroy once again prevailed with 52% against Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh). Meanwhile, Pomeroy has become a powerful member of the House Democratic Caucus. Currently, Pomeroy is the only House member to have seats on both the Ways and Means Committee and the Agriculture Committee.
Republicans nominated long-time State Representative and Fargo businessman Rick Berg to challenge Pomeroy this November. Berg has represented a Fargo-based North Dakota House district for over 25 years, during which he has served as both House Majority Leader and Speaker. Berg is running on a down-the-line conservative platform and has been freely attempting to link Pomeroy with President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, both of whom are exceedingly unpopular in North Dakota.
Another major issue in the general election will be health care. Pomeroy, unlike many of his Democratic colleagues who represent Republican-leaning districts, voted in favor of the Obama Health Care package. The so-called "ObamaCare" plan is extremely unpopular in North Dakota. Berg has made repeal of the health care bill a key tenet is his campaign.
The Berg-Pomeroy race will no doubt be one of the most competitive and costly races in 2010. North Dakota voters are likely to be saturated with advertising in the next couple months as both the DCCC and the NRCC have pledged to target this district. Pomeroy, as a long-serving incumbent, enjoys a considerable cash on hand advantage over Berg, but the unpopularity of national Democrats in North Dakota is so high that no matter the money spent, Pomeroy may not be able to survive.
Rasmussen has been polling this race for several months and every poll has showed Berg with a lead of between 3-9%, with the latest poll of likely voters showing Berg leading 53%-44%. For a challenger to be consistently leading in a series of polls by such margins, the incumbent is obviously in a very difficult situation. Pomeroy has won tough, close elections before, but it remains to be seen if he can pull another rabbit out of his hat in what is shaping up to be one of the worst political environments in recent memory for North Dakota Democrats.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Mississippi 1st District
For Republicans to gain a majority in the U.S. House in 2010, they will need to win in conservative southern districts like Mississippi's 1st district. The 1st encompasses much of the northern third of Mississippi and includes Oxford, home of Ole Miss, Tupelo, and the fast-growing Memphis suburbs in DeSoto County.
The 1st elected conservative Democrat Jaime Whitten to Congress for over 53 years until 1994. When Whitten finally retired in 1994, Republican Roger Wicker won the open seat contest and held the seat until his appointment to the U.S. Senate in December 2007. In the contests to replace Wicker, the 1st reverted to its historic preference for conservative Democrats. After managing his way through 6(!) different elections in 2008, realtor and Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers won election to the final part of Wicker's term and to his own 2-year term. Childers country persona appealed to voters in the 1st as he defeated suburban mayor Greg Davis in both the special election and the November general election.
Childers is a member of the House "Blue Dogs", a coalition of conservative and moderate Democrats. He has been willing to break with his party, most notably in opposing the Obama Health Care package. Childers has, however, been a reliable Democratic vote on most economic issues and he staunchly opposed the Iraq War and has called for the quick withdrawl of all combat troops in Iraq.
Childers was a natural target heading into the 2010 election cycle due to the overwhelmingly Republican nature of the district in national elections. John McCain carried the district 62%-38% in 2008. The Cook Political Report rates the district R +14.
Three Republicans filed to take on Childers in 2010. The winner of the Republican primary was Alan Nunnelee, a veteran state senator from Tupelo. Nunnelee defeated Henry Ross and Angela McGlowan with 52% of the total vote, narrowly avoiding the run-off election that would have been required under Mississippi law had no candidate received over 50% of the vote.
Childers enjoys a cash on hand edge over Nunnelee and both the NRCC and the DCCC plan to air ads in the 1st district. Childers will have to spend freely to tout his independence from the national Democrat Party, which is highly unpopular in northern Mississippi. Childers also will need to work to get out the vote among the 1st's African-American population, which accounts for over 27% of the district's total population.
A confluence of factors currently makes Nunnelee the slight favorite to unseat Childers. First, the current political environment strongly favors the GOP. Second, the district tilts strongly toward Republicans. Third, Nunnelee is an experienced pol with 16 years of experience in winning election to the State Senate.
The 1st elected conservative Democrat Jaime Whitten to Congress for over 53 years until 1994. When Whitten finally retired in 1994, Republican Roger Wicker won the open seat contest and held the seat until his appointment to the U.S. Senate in December 2007. In the contests to replace Wicker, the 1st reverted to its historic preference for conservative Democrats. After managing his way through 6(!) different elections in 2008, realtor and Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers won election to the final part of Wicker's term and to his own 2-year term. Childers country persona appealed to voters in the 1st as he defeated suburban mayor Greg Davis in both the special election and the November general election.
Childers is a member of the House "Blue Dogs", a coalition of conservative and moderate Democrats. He has been willing to break with his party, most notably in opposing the Obama Health Care package. Childers has, however, been a reliable Democratic vote on most economic issues and he staunchly opposed the Iraq War and has called for the quick withdrawl of all combat troops in Iraq.
Childers was a natural target heading into the 2010 election cycle due to the overwhelmingly Republican nature of the district in national elections. John McCain carried the district 62%-38% in 2008. The Cook Political Report rates the district R +14.
Three Republicans filed to take on Childers in 2010. The winner of the Republican primary was Alan Nunnelee, a veteran state senator from Tupelo. Nunnelee defeated Henry Ross and Angela McGlowan with 52% of the total vote, narrowly avoiding the run-off election that would have been required under Mississippi law had no candidate received over 50% of the vote.
Childers enjoys a cash on hand edge over Nunnelee and both the NRCC and the DCCC plan to air ads in the 1st district. Childers will have to spend freely to tout his independence from the national Democrat Party, which is highly unpopular in northern Mississippi. Childers also will need to work to get out the vote among the 1st's African-American population, which accounts for over 27% of the district's total population.
A confluence of factors currently makes Nunnelee the slight favorite to unseat Childers. First, the current political environment strongly favors the GOP. Second, the district tilts strongly toward Republicans. Third, Nunnelee is an experienced pol with 16 years of experience in winning election to the State Senate.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - Indiana's 8th District
Indiana's "Bloody 8th" will be the sight of yet another fiercely competitive election in 2010. The 8th takes in the central west and southwest portions of the Hoosier State stretching over 100 miles north to south from Warren County through Terre Haute in Vigo County to Evansville in the far southwest corner of the state. The 8th's geographic disparities have long made it one of the most balanced districts in the nation. The northern parts of the 8th, like much of central Indiana, tend to favor Republicans. Southern Indiana's "butternut" country has long preferred conservative Democrats.
The 8th earned its nickname due to a series of exceedingly close elections beginning in the 1960s and continuing through to the present. In 1984, the Democrat-controlled House declared the Democrat candidate in the 8th the winner even though Indiana state officials had certified the Republican candidate as the winner. From 1994 to 2006, the 8th was represented by John Hostettler, one of the most outspoken social conservatives in the House. In 2006, Hostettler was handily defeated by moderate Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth seemed to be a good fit for the 8th: conservative on social issues, willing to break from his party, attentive to district interests, populist on economic issues. Ellsworth was handily re-elected 65%-35% in 2008.
In February 2010 after Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh announced that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate, Ellsworth decided to run to for the Senate. Ellsworth won the Democrat Party nomination, but is currently a slight underdog against former Senator Dan Coats, the Republican nominee. Ellsworth would have been a formidable opponent for any Republican challenger, but with his exit the 8th became a prime GOP pick-up opportunity.
The Republican primary was fiercely contested with eight candidates appearing on the May 4 ballot. Two candidates who had never held elected office rose to the top of the crowded primary field. One was Warrick County cardiothoracic surgeon Larry Bucshon, who was the candidate favored by the NRCC. The second was tea party favorite Kristi Risk. Risk led for much of election night, but Buchson prevailed 32%-29%.
Democrats were able to unite behind former Posey County Prosecuting Attorney and State Representative Trent Van Haaften, a social conservative who makes viable claims to be the heir to Ellsworth's political legacy. Van Haaften was unopposed in the May primary.
Neither candidate has been a fundraising dynamo, but both the NRCC and DCCC have committed to advertising expenditures in the 8th. In an election season where any semi-competitive Democratic-held open seat is up for grabs, the 8th is certainly an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. Democrats have a candidate who is certainly capable of maintaining the district and one who would probably be favored in most election years. However, national Democrats are anathema in the 8th and if Bucshon can successfully link Van Haaften to President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he will probably prevail in November. With most polls closing in Indiana by 5:00 CST, this race should be an early signal of whether or not Republicans have a chance to retake the House.
The 8th earned its nickname due to a series of exceedingly close elections beginning in the 1960s and continuing through to the present. In 1984, the Democrat-controlled House declared the Democrat candidate in the 8th the winner even though Indiana state officials had certified the Republican candidate as the winner. From 1994 to 2006, the 8th was represented by John Hostettler, one of the most outspoken social conservatives in the House. In 2006, Hostettler was handily defeated by moderate Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth seemed to be a good fit for the 8th: conservative on social issues, willing to break from his party, attentive to district interests, populist on economic issues. Ellsworth was handily re-elected 65%-35% in 2008.
In February 2010 after Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh announced that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate, Ellsworth decided to run to for the Senate. Ellsworth won the Democrat Party nomination, but is currently a slight underdog against former Senator Dan Coats, the Republican nominee. Ellsworth would have been a formidable opponent for any Republican challenger, but with his exit the 8th became a prime GOP pick-up opportunity.
The Republican primary was fiercely contested with eight candidates appearing on the May 4 ballot. Two candidates who had never held elected office rose to the top of the crowded primary field. One was Warrick County cardiothoracic surgeon Larry Bucshon, who was the candidate favored by the NRCC. The second was tea party favorite Kristi Risk. Risk led for much of election night, but Buchson prevailed 32%-29%.
Democrats were able to unite behind former Posey County Prosecuting Attorney and State Representative Trent Van Haaften, a social conservative who makes viable claims to be the heir to Ellsworth's political legacy. Van Haaften was unopposed in the May primary.
Neither candidate has been a fundraising dynamo, but both the NRCC and DCCC have committed to advertising expenditures in the 8th. In an election season where any semi-competitive Democratic-held open seat is up for grabs, the 8th is certainly an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. Democrats have a candidate who is certainly capable of maintaining the district and one who would probably be favored in most election years. However, national Democrats are anathema in the 8th and if Bucshon can successfully link Van Haaften to President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he will probably prevail in November. With most polls closing in Indiana by 5:00 CST, this race should be an early signal of whether or not Republicans have a chance to retake the House.
U.S. House Race Spotlight - New Mexico 2nd District
The scorched earth of southern New Mexico will play host to one of the hottest House races of 2010. New Mexico's 2nd district covers most of the southern half of the state, including Las Cruces, Alamogordo, Roswell, and Hobbs. The district stretches northward all the way to suburban areas south of Albuquerque, New Mexico's most populous city.
The 2nd leans Republican on the whole. The southeast area of New Mexico, known as Little Texas, shares the conservative political traditions of its namesake. The 2nd is a majority minority district (49% of the district's population is Hispanic and only 41% is white), but there are high percentages of non-citizens among the Hispanic population. Additionally, New Mexico Hispanics are not traditionally as heavily Democratic in their voting preferences as are Hispanics in other states.
The 2nd elected Republican Joe Skeen to Congress 11 times from 1980-2000. After Skeen retired in 2002, the 2nd elected Republican Steve Pearce to 4 terms. Pearce, a former state legislator and Hobbs businessman, had a conservative voting record and joined the Republican leadership as an assistant whip. In 2008, Pearce decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by long-time New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici. Pearce faced an intense primary challenge from fellow House member Heather Wilson. Pearce won the primary 51%-49% by racking up big margins in southern New Mexico. The primary proved costly to Pearce and he never gained any momentum in the general election. As Barack Obama carried New Mexico 57%-42%, Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall defeated Pearce soundly 61%-39%.
Meanwhile, the open seat contest to succeed Pearce in representing the 2nd district garnered the attention of both national parties. Democrats nominated wealthy Hobbs businessman and former Lea County Board of Commissioners President Harry Teague. The Republican candidate was Edward Tinsley, Pearce's primary opponent in 2002 and a wealthy rancher and businessman. Both candidates spent freely from their personal fortunes and the national parties weighed in to make this a very expensive race. In the end, Teague prevailed by the surprisingly strong margin of 56%-44% even as John McCain narrowly carried the district.
Teague has a relatively moderate voting record during his first term. Most critically, Teague broke with his party and was 1 of 39 Democrats who voted against President Obama's health care package.
In August 2009, Pearce announced that he would challenge Teague for his old seat. The battle between the two Hobbs businessmen who have represented this district since 2002 has drawn the attention of both the DCCC and the NRCC. Teague will likely have a leg up financially with his ability to self-fund (at latest reporting he had well over $1 million cash on hand). Early indications, however, showed that Teague was vulnerable; a February PPP poll showed Pearce with a 2 point lead.
In Pearce, Republicans have found a candidate with great name recognition and with a history of winning elections in this district. This explains why three non-partisan national political handicappers (Sabato, Rothenberg, and Real Clear Politics) have this race listed as Leans Republican. Teague will have to spend freely to distance himself from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Obama in order to be re-elected in this Republican leaning district.
The 2nd leans Republican on the whole. The southeast area of New Mexico, known as Little Texas, shares the conservative political traditions of its namesake. The 2nd is a majority minority district (49% of the district's population is Hispanic and only 41% is white), but there are high percentages of non-citizens among the Hispanic population. Additionally, New Mexico Hispanics are not traditionally as heavily Democratic in their voting preferences as are Hispanics in other states.
The 2nd elected Republican Joe Skeen to Congress 11 times from 1980-2000. After Skeen retired in 2002, the 2nd elected Republican Steve Pearce to 4 terms. Pearce, a former state legislator and Hobbs businessman, had a conservative voting record and joined the Republican leadership as an assistant whip. In 2008, Pearce decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by long-time New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici. Pearce faced an intense primary challenge from fellow House member Heather Wilson. Pearce won the primary 51%-49% by racking up big margins in southern New Mexico. The primary proved costly to Pearce and he never gained any momentum in the general election. As Barack Obama carried New Mexico 57%-42%, Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall defeated Pearce soundly 61%-39%.
Meanwhile, the open seat contest to succeed Pearce in representing the 2nd district garnered the attention of both national parties. Democrats nominated wealthy Hobbs businessman and former Lea County Board of Commissioners President Harry Teague. The Republican candidate was Edward Tinsley, Pearce's primary opponent in 2002 and a wealthy rancher and businessman. Both candidates spent freely from their personal fortunes and the national parties weighed in to make this a very expensive race. In the end, Teague prevailed by the surprisingly strong margin of 56%-44% even as John McCain narrowly carried the district.
Teague has a relatively moderate voting record during his first term. Most critically, Teague broke with his party and was 1 of 39 Democrats who voted against President Obama's health care package.
In August 2009, Pearce announced that he would challenge Teague for his old seat. The battle between the two Hobbs businessmen who have represented this district since 2002 has drawn the attention of both the DCCC and the NRCC. Teague will likely have a leg up financially with his ability to self-fund (at latest reporting he had well over $1 million cash on hand). Early indications, however, showed that Teague was vulnerable; a February PPP poll showed Pearce with a 2 point lead.
In Pearce, Republicans have found a candidate with great name recognition and with a history of winning elections in this district. This explains why three non-partisan national political handicappers (Sabato, Rothenberg, and Real Clear Politics) have this race listed as Leans Republican. Teague will have to spend freely to distance himself from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Obama in order to be re-elected in this Republican leaning district.
U.S. House Race of the Day - Ohio 1st District
Ohio's 1st District will be the site of another hotly contested rematch between two candidates who went toe-to-toe in 2008. The result in this district could possibly impact which party controls the U.S. House. The 1st district includes most of the city of Cincinnati and its eastern suburbs. While inner-city Cincinnati has become more and more Democratic in recent years, the suburbs are strongly Republican. This mixture has made the 1st a competitive district for many years.
Republican Steve Chabot held this swing district for 14 years, first winning it in the Republican wave of 1994 and holding it through numerous tough election cycles until 2008. During his tenure in the House, Chabot compiled a conservative voting record in line with most of his 1994 classmates. A licensed attorney who spent his pre-Congressional career in private practice, Chabot was chosen as one of the House managers during President Clinton's impeachment trial. Chabot also gained national attention as the author of the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban, signed into law by President Bush in 2003 and much litigated since.
Chabot's conservative politics never made him universally popular in the divided 1st district. In four of Chabot's six re-election races he received less than 55% of the vote. In 2008, forces finally combined and Chabot was defeated 52%-47% by Democrat State Representative Steve Driehaus. Driehaus benefitted from increased voter turnout among the district's African-American population due to Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket (28% of the 1st's population is African-American). Driehaus ran as a pro-life, fiscal conservative and his moderate stands played well in 2008.
In Congress, Driehaus, unlike many Democrats elected in swing districts, voted for the Obama Health Care bill, making him vulnerable on that issue in November. His vote on the health care bill also cost him the endorsement of the Right to Life, which has endorsed Chabot in the general election. Chabot has already begun airing ads linking Driehaus to President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both of whom are not very popular among most Cincinnati voters.
Both the DCCC and the RNCC have pledged to spend money on this race. At the latest reporting deadline, Chabot had a slight ($1 million to $970,000) cash on hand lead over Driehaus. Two recent polls conducted in the 1st had drastically different results. A We Ask America poll of 1001 registered voters conducted in early August showed Chabot leading Driehaus by 17%. An AAF/Ayers poll done a couple weeks later of 400 likely voters showed Chabot leading by only 2%. Either way, it is dangerous territory for an incumbent to be trailing in both the polls and the money race with only two months to go until the general election. Chabot appears to be well-positioned to retake the seat he held for 14 years, but Driehaus cannot be counted out quite yet.
Republican Steve Chabot held this swing district for 14 years, first winning it in the Republican wave of 1994 and holding it through numerous tough election cycles until 2008. During his tenure in the House, Chabot compiled a conservative voting record in line with most of his 1994 classmates. A licensed attorney who spent his pre-Congressional career in private practice, Chabot was chosen as one of the House managers during President Clinton's impeachment trial. Chabot also gained national attention as the author of the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban, signed into law by President Bush in 2003 and much litigated since.
Chabot's conservative politics never made him universally popular in the divided 1st district. In four of Chabot's six re-election races he received less than 55% of the vote. In 2008, forces finally combined and Chabot was defeated 52%-47% by Democrat State Representative Steve Driehaus. Driehaus benefitted from increased voter turnout among the district's African-American population due to Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket (28% of the 1st's population is African-American). Driehaus ran as a pro-life, fiscal conservative and his moderate stands played well in 2008.
In Congress, Driehaus, unlike many Democrats elected in swing districts, voted for the Obama Health Care bill, making him vulnerable on that issue in November. His vote on the health care bill also cost him the endorsement of the Right to Life, which has endorsed Chabot in the general election. Chabot has already begun airing ads linking Driehaus to President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both of whom are not very popular among most Cincinnati voters.
Both the DCCC and the RNCC have pledged to spend money on this race. At the latest reporting deadline, Chabot had a slight ($1 million to $970,000) cash on hand lead over Driehaus. Two recent polls conducted in the 1st had drastically different results. A We Ask America poll of 1001 registered voters conducted in early August showed Chabot leading Driehaus by 17%. An AAF/Ayers poll done a couple weeks later of 400 likely voters showed Chabot leading by only 2%. Either way, it is dangerous territory for an incumbent to be trailing in both the polls and the money race with only two months to go until the general election. Chabot appears to be well-positioned to retake the seat he held for 14 years, but Driehaus cannot be counted out quite yet.
U.S. House Race of the Day - Colorado 4th District
The staying power of one member of the Democratic House class of 2008 will be put to the test in Colorado's 4th District. The 4th takes in the lightly populated eastern quarter of the state and juts west to take in more populous Fort Collins and fast-growing communities north of Denver. The High Plains of Eastern Colorado have long been heavily Republican and this district voted for George Bush by 17% over John Kerry in 2004. The district moved to the left in 2008, when John McCain carried the 4th by less than 3,000 votes and the district elected a Democratic representative to the House.
The freshman representative in the 4th is Democrat Betsy Markey. Markey, a multi-millionaire software CEO, mother of three and former aide to ex-Colorado Senator (now Obama cabinet member) Ken Salazar, was one of the Democrat Party's great success stories of election night 2008. Running on a centrist platform, Markey received extensive help from the DCCC and two left-wing national groups, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and EMILY's List, in her bid to unseat conservative firebrand Representative Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave was a favorite of social conservatives for her championing of pro-life and anti-gay marriage proposals in Congress. Musgrave's dogged focus on her pet issues, however, failed to connect with voters in 2008. Musgrave's unpopularity together with Obama's surprisingly strong showing in the 4th and the barrage of money spent on Markey's behalf by liberal interest groups resulted in a Markey blowout. Markey defeated Musgrave 56%-44%. Musgrave's margin of defeat was the largest for any incumbent member of the U.S. House in 2008.
During her first term, Markey has mostly voted the Democrat Party line on the issues. However, Markey broke ranks with her party and opposed the controversial health care reform package. In recent days Markey has come under fire for running ads stating she opposed bailouts, when in fact she voted for several different bailouts during her first term.
Markey's large margin of victory in 2008 has not insulated her from a stiff challenge in her first bid for re-election. The Republican nominee to face Markey is State Representative Cory Gardner, an attorney from rural Yuma County in the northeast part of Colorado. Gardner's conservative bona fides (he touts his 2009 "Guardian of the Taxpayers" award from an anti-tax group) and fundraising prowess allowed him to clear what could have been a crowded primary field and to run unopposed in Colorado's August 10 primary. Both the DCCC and the NRCC have committed to spending in this district, showing the importance of this seat to both national parties.
Despite her large win in 2008, Markey is a prime target this cycle. Her views are to the left of most voters in this district. However, Markey is a fantastic fundraiser and she already enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 cash on hand advantage over Gardner. Markey can also probably count on help from the liberal pro-abortion group EMILY's List again this cycle. Gardner, for his part, is a strong candidate and with a Republican wind blowing against his back in an ancestrally Republican district he is probably the man to beat with two months until the general election.
The freshman representative in the 4th is Democrat Betsy Markey. Markey, a multi-millionaire software CEO, mother of three and former aide to ex-Colorado Senator (now Obama cabinet member) Ken Salazar, was one of the Democrat Party's great success stories of election night 2008. Running on a centrist platform, Markey received extensive help from the DCCC and two left-wing national groups, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and EMILY's List, in her bid to unseat conservative firebrand Representative Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave was a favorite of social conservatives for her championing of pro-life and anti-gay marriage proposals in Congress. Musgrave's dogged focus on her pet issues, however, failed to connect with voters in 2008. Musgrave's unpopularity together with Obama's surprisingly strong showing in the 4th and the barrage of money spent on Markey's behalf by liberal interest groups resulted in a Markey blowout. Markey defeated Musgrave 56%-44%. Musgrave's margin of defeat was the largest for any incumbent member of the U.S. House in 2008.
During her first term, Markey has mostly voted the Democrat Party line on the issues. However, Markey broke ranks with her party and opposed the controversial health care reform package. In recent days Markey has come under fire for running ads stating she opposed bailouts, when in fact she voted for several different bailouts during her first term.
Markey's large margin of victory in 2008 has not insulated her from a stiff challenge in her first bid for re-election. The Republican nominee to face Markey is State Representative Cory Gardner, an attorney from rural Yuma County in the northeast part of Colorado. Gardner's conservative bona fides (he touts his 2009 "Guardian of the Taxpayers" award from an anti-tax group) and fundraising prowess allowed him to clear what could have been a crowded primary field and to run unopposed in Colorado's August 10 primary. Both the DCCC and the NRCC have committed to spending in this district, showing the importance of this seat to both national parties.
Despite her large win in 2008, Markey is a prime target this cycle. Her views are to the left of most voters in this district. However, Markey is a fantastic fundraiser and she already enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 cash on hand advantage over Gardner. Markey can also probably count on help from the liberal pro-abortion group EMILY's List again this cycle. Gardner, for his part, is a strong candidate and with a Republican wind blowing against his back in an ancestrally Republican district he is probably the man to beat with two months until the general election.
Friday, August 27, 2010
U.S. House Race of the Day - Ohio 15th District
Ohio's 15th district will be the site of one of the most pivotal rematches of the 2010 election cycle. The 15th takes in most of Columbus and the suburban areas to the west of Ohio's capital city. The Columbus area has historically been Republican, but the 15th trended Democratic in 2008, voting for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 54%-45% margin.
The 15th's representative, Mary Jo Kilroy, was swept into office on the Obama-wave in 2008. It is widely agreed among political analysts that Kilroy is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in 2010. In 2008, the freshman lawmaker was elected by 2,300 votes due to a confluence of factors working in her favor. First and foremost among these factors was obviously Obama's strength in the district. Kilroy also benefitted from the presence of two minor-party candidates on the 2008 ballot in the 15th district. A libertarian and a pro-life conservative on the ballot took nearly 10% of the vote in 2010.
Kilroy's Republican opponent, in 2008 and again this year, is Steve Stivers. Stivers was a State Senator when he first challenged Kilroy in 2008. Stivers served for 25 years in the Ohio National Guard and emphasizes economic issues. He has some moderate positions on social issues, including supporting abortion rights. The 2008 Kilroy-Stivers election was one of the closest and most costly House races in the country. Both Kilroy and Stivers spent over $2 million and the Democratic Party spent freely in an attempt to get Kilroy elected.
Both national and local trends appear to favor Stivers in the rematch. Nationally, the wind has turned in the direction of the Republicans due to the unpopularity of President Obama and the Democratic Congress. Stivers has also made news recently for outraising Kilroy and currently Stivers has the cash advantage on the incumbent, something highly unusual for a challenger. Stivers will have to contend with the presence of both Libertarian Party and Constitution Party candidates on the November ballot, which could theoretically siphon off some right-wing votes from Stivers like what happened in 2010. Kilroy, however, will vulnerable to attack due to her votes for the Obama Health Care bill and for the stimulus bill. Two polls conducted earlier this month showed Stivers with a 5 point lead.
Republicans will need to reclaim this district in 2010 to reclaim the House majority. In Stivers, Republicans have a candidate who can appeal to Democrats and Independents, but he will have to contend with some conservative backlash at the ballot box to win this swing district.
The 15th's representative, Mary Jo Kilroy, was swept into office on the Obama-wave in 2008. It is widely agreed among political analysts that Kilroy is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in 2010. In 2008, the freshman lawmaker was elected by 2,300 votes due to a confluence of factors working in her favor. First and foremost among these factors was obviously Obama's strength in the district. Kilroy also benefitted from the presence of two minor-party candidates on the 2008 ballot in the 15th district. A libertarian and a pro-life conservative on the ballot took nearly 10% of the vote in 2010.
Kilroy's Republican opponent, in 2008 and again this year, is Steve Stivers. Stivers was a State Senator when he first challenged Kilroy in 2008. Stivers served for 25 years in the Ohio National Guard and emphasizes economic issues. He has some moderate positions on social issues, including supporting abortion rights. The 2008 Kilroy-Stivers election was one of the closest and most costly House races in the country. Both Kilroy and Stivers spent over $2 million and the Democratic Party spent freely in an attempt to get Kilroy elected.
Both national and local trends appear to favor Stivers in the rematch. Nationally, the wind has turned in the direction of the Republicans due to the unpopularity of President Obama and the Democratic Congress. Stivers has also made news recently for outraising Kilroy and currently Stivers has the cash advantage on the incumbent, something highly unusual for a challenger. Stivers will have to contend with the presence of both Libertarian Party and Constitution Party candidates on the November ballot, which could theoretically siphon off some right-wing votes from Stivers like what happened in 2010. Kilroy, however, will vulnerable to attack due to her votes for the Obama Health Care bill and for the stimulus bill. Two polls conducted earlier this month showed Stivers with a 5 point lead.
Republicans will need to reclaim this district in 2010 to reclaim the House majority. In Stivers, Republicans have a candidate who can appeal to Democrats and Independents, but he will have to contend with some conservative backlash at the ballot box to win this swing district.
U.S. House Race of the Day - Kansas 3rd District
The fast growing Kansas City suburbs of eastern Kansas will be the site of one of the most-watched open seat U.S. House races of the year. The Republican-leaning seat has been held by Democrat Dennis Moore, much to the chagrin of Republican strategists, since Moore unseated conservative Republican Rep. Vince Snowbarger in 1998. Moore complied a fairly liberal voting record in his 12-year career, but he remained popular in the 3rd which is the most heavily Democratic district in Kansas. Moore was perennially targeted by state and national Republicans, but he managed to rally his base of Democratic strongholds in Kansas City, Kansas and Lawrence to overcome the Republican leanings of populous Johnson County.
In November 2009, Moore announced that he would not seek re-election to Congress. The GOP immediately vaulted the 3rd district to the top of the party's flip list for the 2010 elections. The Democrats were able to convince Moore's wife, Stephene, to run for the seat. Moore entered the race with high name recognition in the district due to her husband's 12 years of service. The Republican primary drew no less than 9 candidates. The race, however, quickly developed into a two person showdown between former State Representative Patricia Lightner, who ran as a "mainstream conservative" and had the backing of the influential Kansans For Life and Overland Park State Representative Kevin Yoder, who also ran on a conservative platform and was favored by national Republicans. In the August 3 primary, Yoder defeated Lightner by a margin of around 5,000 votes 45%-37%. Stephene Moore cruised to victory in the Democratic primary over an unknown opponent.
The Yoder-Moore general election has drawn the interest of both national parties. A recent redstate.com post stated that national Democrats are planning to pour at least $900,000 into this district in hopes of keeping it in the Moore family (and more importantly to them in the Democratic column). Yoder had a nearly 2-to-1 cash on hand advantage at the last reporting period, so Moore will probably need help from the DCCC to be financially competitive. Local Republicans, including Lightner, have coalesced behind Yoder's candidacy. With the election 70 days away, Republicans are counting on taking control of this district that has long eluded them. It is difficult to imagine the GOP reclaiming the House without winning this open seat.
In November 2009, Moore announced that he would not seek re-election to Congress. The GOP immediately vaulted the 3rd district to the top of the party's flip list for the 2010 elections. The Democrats were able to convince Moore's wife, Stephene, to run for the seat. Moore entered the race with high name recognition in the district due to her husband's 12 years of service. The Republican primary drew no less than 9 candidates. The race, however, quickly developed into a two person showdown between former State Representative Patricia Lightner, who ran as a "mainstream conservative" and had the backing of the influential Kansans For Life and Overland Park State Representative Kevin Yoder, who also ran on a conservative platform and was favored by national Republicans. In the August 3 primary, Yoder defeated Lightner by a margin of around 5,000 votes 45%-37%. Stephene Moore cruised to victory in the Democratic primary over an unknown opponent.
The Yoder-Moore general election has drawn the interest of both national parties. A recent redstate.com post stated that national Democrats are planning to pour at least $900,000 into this district in hopes of keeping it in the Moore family (and more importantly to them in the Democratic column). Yoder had a nearly 2-to-1 cash on hand advantage at the last reporting period, so Moore will probably need help from the DCCC to be financially competitive. Local Republicans, including Lightner, have coalesced behind Yoder's candidacy. With the election 70 days away, Republicans are counting on taking control of this district that has long eluded them. It is difficult to imagine the GOP reclaiming the House without winning this open seat.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
U.S. House Race of the Day - Arkansas 2nd District
The 2nd Congressional District of Arkansas encompasses eight counties in the central part of state. The heart of the district is in the state capital of Little Rock. This district is the second fastest-growing of the state's four congressional districts, with population growth estimated at over 6% since the 2000 census. Like most of Arkansas, the Little Rock area has a long-standing preference for Democratic candidates. However, the liberalism of the modern, national Democratic Party has made the 2nd into a Republican-leaning district in Presidential politics. The district voted for Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by a 54%-44% margin.
The 2nd has been represented in Congress by Democrat Vic Snyder since 1996. After winning a close first election to Congress, Snyder has been re-elected with no less than 58% in a district with conservative leanings. Snyder's voting record is the most liberal among Arkansas's congressional delegation and he was a major Republican target coming into this year's election cycle. In January, after an independent poll showed Snyder trailing his presumptive Republican opponent, Tim Griffin, by 17 points, Snyder decided to retire from Congress to spend more time with his new family. Snyder married a Methodist minister in 2003 and at the age of 62 has a three-year old son and one-year old triplet sons.
This seat was a Republican pick-up opportunity before Snyder's retirement and with the incumbent off the ballot Republican chances increased. Griffin, an Iraq War veteran and former U.S. Attorney who is well-connected in national Republican circles, became the early favorite to succeed Snyder. Griffin dispatched fellow Republican Scott Wallace in the GOP primary 62%-38% to secure the party's nomination. Meanwhile, the Democrat primary failed to produce a winner with liberal Arkansas State Senator Joyce Elliott leading the balloting with 39% and moderate State House Speaker Robbie Wills lagging behind in 2nd place. Under Arkansas law, if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff election must be held. The June runoff resulted in a narrow 54%-46% victory for Elliott. Elliott, an African-American, will have a solid base of support in the district's 20% black population. However, Miles was widely viewed as the more electable Democratic candidate in November due to his moderate views fitting better with the overall conservative tilt of the district.
In his first post-primary financial report, Griffin reported contributions of almost $1 million and over $300,000 cash on hand. Elliott reported nearly $500,000 in contributions but only $100,000 cash on hand after the tough primary election fight. A recent poll released by Talk Business showed Griffin leading Elliott 52%-35% among likely voters. Barring some unforeseen developments, Griffin seems likely to flip this seat from blue to red come November.
Story on recent poll showing Griffin with 15 point lead
Griffin's Campaign Website
Elliott Campaign Website
The 2nd has been represented in Congress by Democrat Vic Snyder since 1996. After winning a close first election to Congress, Snyder has been re-elected with no less than 58% in a district with conservative leanings. Snyder's voting record is the most liberal among Arkansas's congressional delegation and he was a major Republican target coming into this year's election cycle. In January, after an independent poll showed Snyder trailing his presumptive Republican opponent, Tim Griffin, by 17 points, Snyder decided to retire from Congress to spend more time with his new family. Snyder married a Methodist minister in 2003 and at the age of 62 has a three-year old son and one-year old triplet sons.
This seat was a Republican pick-up opportunity before Snyder's retirement and with the incumbent off the ballot Republican chances increased. Griffin, an Iraq War veteran and former U.S. Attorney who is well-connected in national Republican circles, became the early favorite to succeed Snyder. Griffin dispatched fellow Republican Scott Wallace in the GOP primary 62%-38% to secure the party's nomination. Meanwhile, the Democrat primary failed to produce a winner with liberal Arkansas State Senator Joyce Elliott leading the balloting with 39% and moderate State House Speaker Robbie Wills lagging behind in 2nd place. Under Arkansas law, if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff election must be held. The June runoff resulted in a narrow 54%-46% victory for Elliott. Elliott, an African-American, will have a solid base of support in the district's 20% black population. However, Miles was widely viewed as the more electable Democratic candidate in November due to his moderate views fitting better with the overall conservative tilt of the district.
In his first post-primary financial report, Griffin reported contributions of almost $1 million and over $300,000 cash on hand. Elliott reported nearly $500,000 in contributions but only $100,000 cash on hand after the tough primary election fight. A recent poll released by Talk Business showed Griffin leading Elliott 52%-35% among likely voters. Barring some unforeseen developments, Griffin seems likely to flip this seat from blue to red come November.
Story on recent poll showing Griffin with 15 point lead
Griffin's Campaign Website
Elliott Campaign Website
U.S. House Race of the Day - Tennessee 6th District
Every day until Election Day on Tuesday, November 2 (only 73 days away!) I am going to profile one or two races that will be crucial to the Republicans taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November. The GOP needs a net gain of 39 seats to win a majority.
Tennessee 6th District
Tennessee's 6th Congressional District covers a wide swath of territory in central and north central Tennessee. The district has seen large growth since the 2000 census, with an estimated increase in population upwards of 15%. Murfreesboro, the largest city in the 6th district, has seen high population growth in the last decade.
The 6th District has been represented by "Blue Dog" Democrat Bart Gordon since 1984. Gordon's local popularity enabled him to win election in this mostly conservative district 13 times, with his winning percentage dipping to 51% only in the 1994 Republican wave. In 2008, Gordon did not draw a Republican challenger and took 74% against an independent candidate. After facing some criticism for blaming a "technical glitch" for his failure to cast a vote on the auto bailout bill, Gordon announced in December 2009 that he would retire from Congress after 26 years at the end of the 111th Congress.
Gordon would have been a clear favorite to hold this seat, despite the Republican leanings of the district. However, with Gordon off the ballot, this seat has currently become the house seat most likely to shift from Democratic to Republican hands. This district voted for Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election by a 62%-37% margin. With an open seat race in a heavily Republican district in a heavily Republican year, this seat is all but in the Republican column.
The strong possibility of this district electing a Republican in November drew three well-funded Republican candidates for the August 5 primary. State Senator Diane Black from Gallatin campaigned as a "tough lady" conservative who had a history of getting things done during her 12-year tenure in the Tennessee legislature. Construction industry businesswoman Lou Ann Zelenik, a tea party activist, tried to position herself as the most conservative candidate in the race. Zelenik made headlines when she accused an Islamic group attempting to build a mosque in Murfreesboro of being "foreign agents." State Senator Jim Tracy attempted to court business and industry officials.
Zelenik and Brown both took to the airwaves with negative ads against each other resulting in Black's husband filing a libel lawsuit to attempt to halt the one of Zelenik's ads from airing (a judge declined to issue an injunction days before the primary election). The net effect was a virtual three-way tie. Once the dust settled, Black was victorious with 30.5% of the vote. Zelenik finished second with 30.2% and Tracy was third with 29.8%. Four other candidates accounted for the remaining 9.5% of the vote. Tracy conceded to Black late on election night, but Zelenik refused to concede. On August 17 Zelenik sent a message to supporters in which she congratulated Black on her victory ("assuming the vote margin remains the same"). In the message Zelenik repeated her pleas for Black's husband to drop the lawsuit pending against her.
The Democratic primary in the 6th District was a relatively quiet, though no less dramatic, affair compared to the raucous Republican primary. After failing to lure any more experienced, better known candidates into the race, the Democratic primary came down to a close, three-way race between three first time office seekers. In the end, Brett Carter, a tax attorney and Iraq War veteran garnered 30.3% of the votes cast to narrowly edge fellow Iraq War veteran Ben Leming who tallied 29.6% of the vote. Henry Clay Barry finished a close third with 28.6% of the vote.
The strong Republican tilt of the district was evidenced on primary night. Almost 80,000 people voted in the Republican primary, while less than 32,000 voted in the Democratic primary.
Republicans are counting on Black to reunite the party after the bitter primary. Black reported almost $200,000 cash on hand in mid-July and she had raised over $400,000. Carter, on the other hand, had almost $100,000 cash on hand of his full fundraising haul of $106,000 at that point in time. Despite some obviously lingering wounds within the Republican primary from the bitter Brown-Zelenik primary fights, it would still be a major surprise if Diane Black is not the next representative from the 6th District. The overall conservative leanings of the district coupled with the fact that the Democratic Congress and President Obama are exceedingly unpopular in Middle Tennessee make this seat a great pick-up opportunity for the GOP.
The Tennessean Coverage of 6th District
Diane Black Campaign Website
Brett Carter Campaign Website
Story on Zelenik's "concession" from the Tennessean
Tennessee 6th District
Tennessee's 6th Congressional District covers a wide swath of territory in central and north central Tennessee. The district has seen large growth since the 2000 census, with an estimated increase in population upwards of 15%. Murfreesboro, the largest city in the 6th district, has seen high population growth in the last decade.
The 6th District has been represented by "Blue Dog" Democrat Bart Gordon since 1984. Gordon's local popularity enabled him to win election in this mostly conservative district 13 times, with his winning percentage dipping to 51% only in the 1994 Republican wave. In 2008, Gordon did not draw a Republican challenger and took 74% against an independent candidate. After facing some criticism for blaming a "technical glitch" for his failure to cast a vote on the auto bailout bill, Gordon announced in December 2009 that he would retire from Congress after 26 years at the end of the 111th Congress.
Gordon would have been a clear favorite to hold this seat, despite the Republican leanings of the district. However, with Gordon off the ballot, this seat has currently become the house seat most likely to shift from Democratic to Republican hands. This district voted for Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election by a 62%-37% margin. With an open seat race in a heavily Republican district in a heavily Republican year, this seat is all but in the Republican column.
The strong possibility of this district electing a Republican in November drew three well-funded Republican candidates for the August 5 primary. State Senator Diane Black from Gallatin campaigned as a "tough lady" conservative who had a history of getting things done during her 12-year tenure in the Tennessee legislature. Construction industry businesswoman Lou Ann Zelenik, a tea party activist, tried to position herself as the most conservative candidate in the race. Zelenik made headlines when she accused an Islamic group attempting to build a mosque in Murfreesboro of being "foreign agents." State Senator Jim Tracy attempted to court business and industry officials.
Zelenik and Brown both took to the airwaves with negative ads against each other resulting in Black's husband filing a libel lawsuit to attempt to halt the one of Zelenik's ads from airing (a judge declined to issue an injunction days before the primary election). The net effect was a virtual three-way tie. Once the dust settled, Black was victorious with 30.5% of the vote. Zelenik finished second with 30.2% and Tracy was third with 29.8%. Four other candidates accounted for the remaining 9.5% of the vote. Tracy conceded to Black late on election night, but Zelenik refused to concede. On August 17 Zelenik sent a message to supporters in which she congratulated Black on her victory ("assuming the vote margin remains the same"). In the message Zelenik repeated her pleas for Black's husband to drop the lawsuit pending against her.
The Democratic primary in the 6th District was a relatively quiet, though no less dramatic, affair compared to the raucous Republican primary. After failing to lure any more experienced, better known candidates into the race, the Democratic primary came down to a close, three-way race between three first time office seekers. In the end, Brett Carter, a tax attorney and Iraq War veteran garnered 30.3% of the votes cast to narrowly edge fellow Iraq War veteran Ben Leming who tallied 29.6% of the vote. Henry Clay Barry finished a close third with 28.6% of the vote.
The strong Republican tilt of the district was evidenced on primary night. Almost 80,000 people voted in the Republican primary, while less than 32,000 voted in the Democratic primary.
Republicans are counting on Black to reunite the party after the bitter primary. Black reported almost $200,000 cash on hand in mid-July and she had raised over $400,000. Carter, on the other hand, had almost $100,000 cash on hand of his full fundraising haul of $106,000 at that point in time. Despite some obviously lingering wounds within the Republican primary from the bitter Brown-Zelenik primary fights, it would still be a major surprise if Diane Black is not the next representative from the 6th District. The overall conservative leanings of the district coupled with the fact that the Democratic Congress and President Obama are exceedingly unpopular in Middle Tennessee make this seat a great pick-up opportunity for the GOP.
The Tennessean Coverage of 6th District
Diane Black Campaign Website
Brett Carter Campaign Website
Story on Zelenik's "concession" from the Tennessean
Competitive Senate Races - Currently Held by Democrat
The following is a brief description of each of the 13 competitive U.S. Senate races where the seat is currently held by a Democrat. As discussed in the previous post, Republicans will need to win between 10-12 of these races in order to gain a Senate majority. The races are listed from the most likely to be won by the Republican candidate to the least likely. I'm once again using my rating system where a "0" rating means a pure toss-up race, a positive number means the seat is likely to change party hands and a negative number means the seat is likely to stay with party that currently holds it.
(1) North Dakota (+75)
When Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan announced his retirement, this seat was viewed as an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. When popular North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven announced his candidacy, the seat quickly became a lock to switch to Republican control. Hoeven was first elected Governor of North Dakota in 2000 and easily won a third term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Recent polls show Hoeven with an astronomical lead over his opponent, State Senator Tracy Potter. This one is all over except for the voting.
(2) Delaware (+35)
This is the seat that Joe Biden vacated to become vice-president. When Biden resigned his seat shortly after the 2008 election, then Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Democrat Ted Kaufman to fill out the remainder of the term. Kaufman immediately let it be known that he would not be a candidate for election this year. Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, was widely considered the favorite to fill his dad's old Senate seat. Beau had been elected Delaware Attorney General in 2006 and seemed to be a rising star in the small world of Delaware politics. After much speculation, Beau surprised most analysts with a January 2010 announcement that he would not run for the U.S. Senate, but would seek re-election as Delaware's Attorney General.
Biden's surprise decision left Democrats scrambling to find a suitable candidate to maintain a Senate seat they have held since 1972. Delaware Democrats eventually settled on New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Republicans, meanwhile, seem to have the ideal candidate to flip this seat in U.S. Congressman Michael Castle. Castle is a well-known name in Delaware politics having been elected statewide 12 times in his political career (once as lieutenant governor, twice as governor, and nine times as Delaware's lone representative in the U.S. House of Representatives). Castle has a moderate voting record, which generally plays well in Delaware. Castle is being challenged in the September 14 Republican primary by Christine O'Donnell, who has garnered support from tea party groups. While O'Donnell is certainly the more conservative candidate in the race, Castle is the more electable candidate. A Castle victory in the Republican primary will virtually guarantee that this seat flips to Republican control.
(3) Arkansas (+30)
Current polling shows Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln to be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the nation. After barely surviving a primary challenge from Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, Lincoln's quest for a third Senate term will have to go through NW Arkansas Congressman John Boozman, the Republican nominee. A recent Rasmussen poll showed Boozman leading Lincoln by the eye-popping margin of 65%-27%, an unbelievable number for a non-scandal plagued incumbent. Even if this race narrows some in the coming months, it is very difficult to see how Lincoln survives.
(4) Indiana (+22)
This seat is being vacated by popular Democratic Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh's surprising retirement (he was widely viewed as a possible candidate for higher office) left Indiana Republicans salivating. Indiana's Republican leanings and the general Republican nature of this election cycle make this seat prime territory for a Republican takeover. Republicans recruited former Senator Dan Coats, who retired in 1998 paving the way for Bayh's initial election to the Senate, to run for the seat. Coats defeated lesser-known rivals in the Republican primary and will now face 8th district Congressman Brad Ellsworth in the general election. Ellsworth cuts a moderate profile and would generally be a strong candidate in Indiana, but the unpopularity of the Democratic Congress and Democratic President in the Hoosier State is likely to be Ellsworth's undoing. Barring some unforeseen developments, Coats will be returning to the Senate after a 12-year hiatus.
(5) Pennsylvania (+5)
One of the most exciting races to watch on election night will be the battle between conservative Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey and liberal Congressman Joe Sestak to become Pennsylvania's junior senator. Toomey rose to prominence in 2004 when he left his House seat to challenge Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican senatorial primary. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980 and had long been at odds with conservatives over many issues including his rejection of various judicial nominees (most notably Robert Bork). Toomey came out swinging in the 2004 primary and had the backing of national conservative groups. Specter had the support of the Republican establishment and the Bush White House. Specter survived the primary challenge 51%-49%. Specter won the general election that year by nearly 10%.
Specter was at odds with the majority of his party for much of his 5th term in the Senate. In early 2009, Toomey announced that he would challenge Specter again in the 2010 election. In April 2009 after a lot of hemming and hawing, Specter announced that he was switching parties and joining the Democratic caucus. Shortly after Specter's party switch, Sestak announced that he would challenge Specter in the Democratic primary. In the end, Specter had burned too many bridges with Pennsylvania Democrats and Sestak defeated him 54%-46%.
The saga of Arlen Specter has lead to a most interesting race between a conservative Republican who narrowly lost to Specter in a primary and a liberal Democrat who narrowly defeated Specter in a primary. Polls show the race to be nearly a dead heat, although recent signs may be pointing in Toomey's favor. Toomey will likely get some top of the ticket help, as Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett has consistently led his Democratic rival in polls. This is certainly a race to watch and is one that the GOP must win in order to win back the Senate.
(6) Illinois (+2)
No U.S. Senate seat has received more publicity over the last six years than this one. In 2004, this seat was claimed by a young state senator from Chicago named Barack Obama. When Obama was elected President, this seat became the subject of great controversy when scandal-plagued and soon to be impeached and removed Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris to fill out the remaining two years of Obama's term. In Blagojevich's recent criminal trial, 11/12 jurors apparently believed that the governor sold this seat!
Illinois Democrats were able to persuade the much-maligned Burris to forego any attempt to be elected to the seat and the race now comes down to Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and U.S. Congressman Mark Kirk (R). Both candidates have staked out relatively moderate positions on most issues. Polls have shown the race to the a dead heat since Illinois' February primary.
(7) Colorado (0)
After two hotly contested primaries, the general election in Colorado is shaping up to be a barnburner. The Republican nominee is conservative Ken Buck, a Weld County District Attorney who upset establishment favorite Jane Norton in the August 10 primary. Buck has come under fire for some comments he has made, but the party seems to be coalescing behind him. Buck will take on incumbent Michael Bennet in the general election. Bennet was appointed to the Senate in January 2009 after Ken Salazar was appointed Interior Secretary by President Obama. Bennet, with the backing of the Obama White House, defeated Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.
The general election between these two men of very different political persuasions is sure to be one of the closest of this election cycle. Buck will be counting on the enthusiasm of Republican voters in a state that has trended Democratic in the last couple election cycles. Bennet will be banking on the support of voters who gave Obama a 9% victory in Colorado in 2008. Bennet's closeness to the Obama White House will make this an election that will be more a referendum on the Obama Presidency than anything else.
(8) Nevada (0)
Perhaps the most hotly anticipated election of this cycle is the Nevada Senate race. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is seeking his 5th term. Reid is being challenged by tea party favorite Sharron Angle. Angle, who upset Republican establishment favorite Sue Lowden in the Republican primary, has proven to be a flawed candidate prone saying things deemed controversial in the mainstream media. However, Reid is horribly unpopular both nationally and at home, and even a candidate with Angle's weaknesses has a chance to knock off Reid in November.
No election will present a more stark contrast in the direction of the country than the Reid-Angle showdown. If Republicans are to gain a Senate majority, they must defeat the Majority Leader.
(9) California (-10)
Coming into this election cycle, few pundits would have predicted that far-left Senator Barbara Boxer was in any danger of losing her re-election bid. Boxer, first elected in 1992, has been a liberal flamethrower during her three terms in the Senate. Boxer is consistently rated as one of the most liberal members of the chamber and has a penchant for saying things that drive those of us on the right batty ("Call me Senator!"). Boxer's Republican opponent is former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
Fiorina may well be the conservative equivalent of Boxer, known to speak her mind and take no prisoners. Polls have shown this race tightening throughout the campaign season, with most analysts ranking this a toss-up at present. If Fiorina can overcome the liberal leanings of the Golden State and dethrone a left-wing icon, election night will be much sweeter for Republicans.
(10) Wisconsin (-10)
The Badger State is host to another race that has been consistently tightening throughout the campaign season. Liberal Senator Russ Feingold has always been relatively popular in the Democratic-leaning state, but recent polls have shown him in a dead heat with political novice and wealthy plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson. Heading into this election cycle, most pundits had Feingold as a safe bet for re-election, even in a Republican year. However, Johnson has built a base of support among conservative and tea party groups and has managed to appeal to a large cross-section of disaffected Wisconsin voters. If Johnson can sustain the momentum he has built, this could be the site of one of the biggest upsets of this campaign season.
(11) Washington (-15)
The self-described "Mom in Tennis Shoes", Democratic Senator Patty Murray, is facing yet another tough re-election battle. Murray has been a Republican target in each of her previous re-election campaigns, but she has managed to win with impressive numbers. Even in a strong Republican year, it will be an uphill battle to unseat Murray.
The Republicans have tapped Dino Rossi to face off against Murray. Rossi is well-known in Washington for his two narrow gubernatorial defeats at the hands of Governor Christine Gregoire. Rossi emerged from the August 17 primary, but has yet to receive the backing of fellow Republican candidate Clint Didier. For Rossi to have any chance to defeat Murray in November he must shore up his Republican base and appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats. At present, Murray is a favorite, but with 2+ months before the election and a well-known Republican candidate on the ballot this is still a possible GOP pick-up.
(12) Connecticut (-28)
The Connecticut Senate race is a rare example of an open seat race where the Republicans would have rather taken on the incumbent. Incumbent Senator Chris Dodd was almost a sitting duck to be defeated in November due to his bumbling of the mortgage crisis. However, Connecticut Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Dodd announced that he would retire at the end of his term. Into the Democratic void jumped Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Blumenthal emerged as the early favorite to hold the seat, but hit a bump in the road when it was revealed that he had been "exaggerating" about his Vietnam War service (lying is probably a better word).
The Republicans had a relatively competitive primary going between WWE CEO Linda McMahon and former Congressman Rob Simmons when Simmons pulled out of the race and then came back into the race a couple weeks later. Although coming under attack for the rampant steroid usage in the WWE, McMahon sailed to an easy victory.
From recent polling it seems that the stain of Blumenthal's Vietnam War verbal missteps has worn off and he is a favorite to take this seat in the dark blue state of Connecticut. However, with McMahon's large personal fortune to draw on and the obvious vulnerabilities of the Democratic candidate, this is not a seat Democrats can afford to take for granted.
(13) West Virginia (-40)
When long-time Democratic Senator Robert Byrd died in June 2010, the initial response of West Virginia's Democratic Governor Joe Manchin was that no election needed to be held until 2012. However, after several legal scholars balked, it was determined that under West Virginia law an election to fill the remainder of Senator Byrd's seat needed to be held this year. Manchin appointed the youthful Carte Goodwin to hold the seat until an election could be held. Manchin immediately declared himself a candidate for the Senate seat and he starts the campaign season as the clear favorite to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Manchin is exceedingly popular in West Virginia, having won re-election in 2008 by a 70%-26% margin. However, recently news has circulated that Manchin's office may be under investigation by the FBI. A Manchin scandal may provide an opening for former West Virginia GOP Chairman John Raese, the presumptive Republican nominee. If the FBI news doesn't amount to anything, expect Manchin to transfer from the Governor's Mansion to Capitol Hill in November.
(1) North Dakota (+75)
When Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan announced his retirement, this seat was viewed as an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. When popular North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven announced his candidacy, the seat quickly became a lock to switch to Republican control. Hoeven was first elected Governor of North Dakota in 2000 and easily won a third term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Recent polls show Hoeven with an astronomical lead over his opponent, State Senator Tracy Potter. This one is all over except for the voting.
(2) Delaware (+35)
This is the seat that Joe Biden vacated to become vice-president. When Biden resigned his seat shortly after the 2008 election, then Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Democrat Ted Kaufman to fill out the remainder of the term. Kaufman immediately let it be known that he would not be a candidate for election this year. Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, was widely considered the favorite to fill his dad's old Senate seat. Beau had been elected Delaware Attorney General in 2006 and seemed to be a rising star in the small world of Delaware politics. After much speculation, Beau surprised most analysts with a January 2010 announcement that he would not run for the U.S. Senate, but would seek re-election as Delaware's Attorney General.
Biden's surprise decision left Democrats scrambling to find a suitable candidate to maintain a Senate seat they have held since 1972. Delaware Democrats eventually settled on New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Republicans, meanwhile, seem to have the ideal candidate to flip this seat in U.S. Congressman Michael Castle. Castle is a well-known name in Delaware politics having been elected statewide 12 times in his political career (once as lieutenant governor, twice as governor, and nine times as Delaware's lone representative in the U.S. House of Representatives). Castle has a moderate voting record, which generally plays well in Delaware. Castle is being challenged in the September 14 Republican primary by Christine O'Donnell, who has garnered support from tea party groups. While O'Donnell is certainly the more conservative candidate in the race, Castle is the more electable candidate. A Castle victory in the Republican primary will virtually guarantee that this seat flips to Republican control.
(3) Arkansas (+30)
Current polling shows Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln to be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the nation. After barely surviving a primary challenge from Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, Lincoln's quest for a third Senate term will have to go through NW Arkansas Congressman John Boozman, the Republican nominee. A recent Rasmussen poll showed Boozman leading Lincoln by the eye-popping margin of 65%-27%, an unbelievable number for a non-scandal plagued incumbent. Even if this race narrows some in the coming months, it is very difficult to see how Lincoln survives.
(4) Indiana (+22)
This seat is being vacated by popular Democratic Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh's surprising retirement (he was widely viewed as a possible candidate for higher office) left Indiana Republicans salivating. Indiana's Republican leanings and the general Republican nature of this election cycle make this seat prime territory for a Republican takeover. Republicans recruited former Senator Dan Coats, who retired in 1998 paving the way for Bayh's initial election to the Senate, to run for the seat. Coats defeated lesser-known rivals in the Republican primary and will now face 8th district Congressman Brad Ellsworth in the general election. Ellsworth cuts a moderate profile and would generally be a strong candidate in Indiana, but the unpopularity of the Democratic Congress and Democratic President in the Hoosier State is likely to be Ellsworth's undoing. Barring some unforeseen developments, Coats will be returning to the Senate after a 12-year hiatus.
(5) Pennsylvania (+5)
One of the most exciting races to watch on election night will be the battle between conservative Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey and liberal Congressman Joe Sestak to become Pennsylvania's junior senator. Toomey rose to prominence in 2004 when he left his House seat to challenge Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican senatorial primary. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980 and had long been at odds with conservatives over many issues including his rejection of various judicial nominees (most notably Robert Bork). Toomey came out swinging in the 2004 primary and had the backing of national conservative groups. Specter had the support of the Republican establishment and the Bush White House. Specter survived the primary challenge 51%-49%. Specter won the general election that year by nearly 10%.
Specter was at odds with the majority of his party for much of his 5th term in the Senate. In early 2009, Toomey announced that he would challenge Specter again in the 2010 election. In April 2009 after a lot of hemming and hawing, Specter announced that he was switching parties and joining the Democratic caucus. Shortly after Specter's party switch, Sestak announced that he would challenge Specter in the Democratic primary. In the end, Specter had burned too many bridges with Pennsylvania Democrats and Sestak defeated him 54%-46%.
The saga of Arlen Specter has lead to a most interesting race between a conservative Republican who narrowly lost to Specter in a primary and a liberal Democrat who narrowly defeated Specter in a primary. Polls show the race to be nearly a dead heat, although recent signs may be pointing in Toomey's favor. Toomey will likely get some top of the ticket help, as Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett has consistently led his Democratic rival in polls. This is certainly a race to watch and is one that the GOP must win in order to win back the Senate.
(6) Illinois (+2)
No U.S. Senate seat has received more publicity over the last six years than this one. In 2004, this seat was claimed by a young state senator from Chicago named Barack Obama. When Obama was elected President, this seat became the subject of great controversy when scandal-plagued and soon to be impeached and removed Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris to fill out the remaining two years of Obama's term. In Blagojevich's recent criminal trial, 11/12 jurors apparently believed that the governor sold this seat!
Illinois Democrats were able to persuade the much-maligned Burris to forego any attempt to be elected to the seat and the race now comes down to Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and U.S. Congressman Mark Kirk (R). Both candidates have staked out relatively moderate positions on most issues. Polls have shown the race to the a dead heat since Illinois' February primary.
(7) Colorado (0)
After two hotly contested primaries, the general election in Colorado is shaping up to be a barnburner. The Republican nominee is conservative Ken Buck, a Weld County District Attorney who upset establishment favorite Jane Norton in the August 10 primary. Buck has come under fire for some comments he has made, but the party seems to be coalescing behind him. Buck will take on incumbent Michael Bennet in the general election. Bennet was appointed to the Senate in January 2009 after Ken Salazar was appointed Interior Secretary by President Obama. Bennet, with the backing of the Obama White House, defeated Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.
The general election between these two men of very different political persuasions is sure to be one of the closest of this election cycle. Buck will be counting on the enthusiasm of Republican voters in a state that has trended Democratic in the last couple election cycles. Bennet will be banking on the support of voters who gave Obama a 9% victory in Colorado in 2008. Bennet's closeness to the Obama White House will make this an election that will be more a referendum on the Obama Presidency than anything else.
(8) Nevada (0)
Perhaps the most hotly anticipated election of this cycle is the Nevada Senate race. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is seeking his 5th term. Reid is being challenged by tea party favorite Sharron Angle. Angle, who upset Republican establishment favorite Sue Lowden in the Republican primary, has proven to be a flawed candidate prone saying things deemed controversial in the mainstream media. However, Reid is horribly unpopular both nationally and at home, and even a candidate with Angle's weaknesses has a chance to knock off Reid in November.
No election will present a more stark contrast in the direction of the country than the Reid-Angle showdown. If Republicans are to gain a Senate majority, they must defeat the Majority Leader.
(9) California (-10)
Coming into this election cycle, few pundits would have predicted that far-left Senator Barbara Boxer was in any danger of losing her re-election bid. Boxer, first elected in 1992, has been a liberal flamethrower during her three terms in the Senate. Boxer is consistently rated as one of the most liberal members of the chamber and has a penchant for saying things that drive those of us on the right batty ("Call me Senator!"). Boxer's Republican opponent is former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
Fiorina may well be the conservative equivalent of Boxer, known to speak her mind and take no prisoners. Polls have shown this race tightening throughout the campaign season, with most analysts ranking this a toss-up at present. If Fiorina can overcome the liberal leanings of the Golden State and dethrone a left-wing icon, election night will be much sweeter for Republicans.
(10) Wisconsin (-10)
The Badger State is host to another race that has been consistently tightening throughout the campaign season. Liberal Senator Russ Feingold has always been relatively popular in the Democratic-leaning state, but recent polls have shown him in a dead heat with political novice and wealthy plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson. Heading into this election cycle, most pundits had Feingold as a safe bet for re-election, even in a Republican year. However, Johnson has built a base of support among conservative and tea party groups and has managed to appeal to a large cross-section of disaffected Wisconsin voters. If Johnson can sustain the momentum he has built, this could be the site of one of the biggest upsets of this campaign season.
(11) Washington (-15)
The self-described "Mom in Tennis Shoes", Democratic Senator Patty Murray, is facing yet another tough re-election battle. Murray has been a Republican target in each of her previous re-election campaigns, but she has managed to win with impressive numbers. Even in a strong Republican year, it will be an uphill battle to unseat Murray.
The Republicans have tapped Dino Rossi to face off against Murray. Rossi is well-known in Washington for his two narrow gubernatorial defeats at the hands of Governor Christine Gregoire. Rossi emerged from the August 17 primary, but has yet to receive the backing of fellow Republican candidate Clint Didier. For Rossi to have any chance to defeat Murray in November he must shore up his Republican base and appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats. At present, Murray is a favorite, but with 2+ months before the election and a well-known Republican candidate on the ballot this is still a possible GOP pick-up.
(12) Connecticut (-28)
The Connecticut Senate race is a rare example of an open seat race where the Republicans would have rather taken on the incumbent. Incumbent Senator Chris Dodd was almost a sitting duck to be defeated in November due to his bumbling of the mortgage crisis. However, Connecticut Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Dodd announced that he would retire at the end of his term. Into the Democratic void jumped Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Blumenthal emerged as the early favorite to hold the seat, but hit a bump in the road when it was revealed that he had been "exaggerating" about his Vietnam War service (lying is probably a better word).
The Republicans had a relatively competitive primary going between WWE CEO Linda McMahon and former Congressman Rob Simmons when Simmons pulled out of the race and then came back into the race a couple weeks later. Although coming under attack for the rampant steroid usage in the WWE, McMahon sailed to an easy victory.
From recent polling it seems that the stain of Blumenthal's Vietnam War verbal missteps has worn off and he is a favorite to take this seat in the dark blue state of Connecticut. However, with McMahon's large personal fortune to draw on and the obvious vulnerabilities of the Democratic candidate, this is not a seat Democrats can afford to take for granted.
(13) West Virginia (-40)
When long-time Democratic Senator Robert Byrd died in June 2010, the initial response of West Virginia's Democratic Governor Joe Manchin was that no election needed to be held until 2012. However, after several legal scholars balked, it was determined that under West Virginia law an election to fill the remainder of Senator Byrd's seat needed to be held this year. Manchin appointed the youthful Carte Goodwin to hold the seat until an election could be held. Manchin immediately declared himself a candidate for the Senate seat and he starts the campaign season as the clear favorite to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Manchin is exceedingly popular in West Virginia, having won re-election in 2008 by a 70%-26% margin. However, recently news has circulated that Manchin's office may be under investigation by the FBI. A Manchin scandal may provide an opening for former West Virginia GOP Chairman John Raese, the presumptive Republican nominee. If the FBI news doesn't amount to anything, expect Manchin to transfer from the Governor's Mansion to Capitol Hill in November.
U.S. Senate - Can the GOP take control?
After the 2008 elections, it was viewed as an absolute impossibility for Republicans to retake control of the U.S. Senate in 2010. By stealing the senatorial election in Minnesota and installing Stuart Smalley as a U.S. Senator and by persuading turncoat Arlen Specter to switch parties, the Democrats had a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the 100-member Senate (two seats are held by "independents": Joe Lieberman, who occasionally shows some independence from the Democratic Party bosses but usually ends up towing the line and Bernie Sanders who is a self-identified Socialist - no need to guess which party he caucuses with!).
The political environment has changed dramatically since November 2008 and now there is some buzz that the GOP may actually do what was once thought impossible and gain a Senate majority. This Republican surge was first noticed in January in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state of the Union. Republican Scott Brown shocked the political establishment by defeating Democrat Martha Coakley to fill the seat once held by Ted Kennedy. Brown's victory gave the GOP 41 Senate seats, ending the filibuster-proof majority.
To gain a governing majority in the Senate, the Republicans will need a net gain of 10 seats. While certainly not outside the realm of possibility, my current analysis has the GOP falling 2-3 seats short of a majority. Despite the hostile political atmosphere for Democrats (Congressional approval is at an all-time low as is President Obama's approval rating), there are several factors working against the Republicans reclaiming a Senate majority.
First, U.S. Senate seats come up for election only once every six years (barring the death or resignation of the incumbent). This year 37 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of those 37 seats, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 18 are currently held by Republicans. The balance in the number of seats up for election this cycle puts the Republicans at a severe disadvantage. In order to gain a majority, the Republican Party will have to not only hold all 18 seats they currently control, but also will have to win 10/19 seats currently held by Democrats.
A second factor working against Republicans claiming a Senate majority is the fact that five incumbent Republican U.S. Senators from "swing states" are not seeking re-election this cycle. These Republicans are George Voinovich in Ohio, Kit Bond in Missouri, George Lemieux in Florida, Jim Bunning in Kentucky, and Judd Gregg in New Hampshire. The result of these resignations/retirements is that Republicans will have to expend extra resources just to hold on to these five seats. While current polls seem to show that all five seats could stay in Republican hands, it is possible for one or two of these seats to go to the Democratic candidate. If one of these five races is won by the Democratic candidate, the Republicans would need to win 11/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority. If two of these races are won by Democrats, Republicans would need to win 12/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority.
Third, Republicans are simply not competitive at all in six of the 19 seats currently held by Democrats. These six seats are held by Democratic incumbents who are virtual shoe-ins for re-election: Daniel Inouye in Hawaii, Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, Charles Schumer in New York, Kristen Gillibrand in New York, and Patrick Leahy in Vermont. So, the pool of Democratic seats from which Republicans must win 10-12 is not a pool of 19 seats, but actually a pool of 13 seats.
Not all is lost for those of us hoping for a Republican takeover in 2010. Republicans are locks to hold on to 11/18 seats currently held by the GOP and are strong favorites to hold on to two others. Additionally, of the 13 competitive seats currently held by Democrats, at least 11 seats are either toss-ups or the Republican candidate is favored to win. So, while it will take a big Republican wave in November, with virtually every close race falling into the Republican column, Republican Senate control in the next Congress is certainly a possibility that cannot be overlooked.
The political environment has changed dramatically since November 2008 and now there is some buzz that the GOP may actually do what was once thought impossible and gain a Senate majority. This Republican surge was first noticed in January in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state of the Union. Republican Scott Brown shocked the political establishment by defeating Democrat Martha Coakley to fill the seat once held by Ted Kennedy. Brown's victory gave the GOP 41 Senate seats, ending the filibuster-proof majority.
To gain a governing majority in the Senate, the Republicans will need a net gain of 10 seats. While certainly not outside the realm of possibility, my current analysis has the GOP falling 2-3 seats short of a majority. Despite the hostile political atmosphere for Democrats (Congressional approval is at an all-time low as is President Obama's approval rating), there are several factors working against the Republicans reclaiming a Senate majority.
First, U.S. Senate seats come up for election only once every six years (barring the death or resignation of the incumbent). This year 37 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of those 37 seats, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 18 are currently held by Republicans. The balance in the number of seats up for election this cycle puts the Republicans at a severe disadvantage. In order to gain a majority, the Republican Party will have to not only hold all 18 seats they currently control, but also will have to win 10/19 seats currently held by Democrats.
A second factor working against Republicans claiming a Senate majority is the fact that five incumbent Republican U.S. Senators from "swing states" are not seeking re-election this cycle. These Republicans are George Voinovich in Ohio, Kit Bond in Missouri, George Lemieux in Florida, Jim Bunning in Kentucky, and Judd Gregg in New Hampshire. The result of these resignations/retirements is that Republicans will have to expend extra resources just to hold on to these five seats. While current polls seem to show that all five seats could stay in Republican hands, it is possible for one or two of these seats to go to the Democratic candidate. If one of these five races is won by the Democratic candidate, the Republicans would need to win 11/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority. If two of these races are won by Democrats, Republicans would need to win 12/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority.
Third, Republicans are simply not competitive at all in six of the 19 seats currently held by Democrats. These six seats are held by Democratic incumbents who are virtual shoe-ins for re-election: Daniel Inouye in Hawaii, Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, Charles Schumer in New York, Kristen Gillibrand in New York, and Patrick Leahy in Vermont. So, the pool of Democratic seats from which Republicans must win 10-12 is not a pool of 19 seats, but actually a pool of 13 seats.
Not all is lost for those of us hoping for a Republican takeover in 2010. Republicans are locks to hold on to 11/18 seats currently held by the GOP and are strong favorites to hold on to two others. Additionally, of the 13 competitive seats currently held by Democrats, at least 11 seats are either toss-ups or the Republican candidate is favored to win. So, while it will take a big Republican wave in November, with virtually every close race falling into the Republican column, Republican Senate control in the next Congress is certainly a possibility that cannot be overlooked.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Competitive U.S. House Races
Anyone who follows politics at all knows that for Republicans to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November they must have a net gain of 39 seats. Some non-partisan prognosticators, such as Charlie Cook at the Cook Political Report and the folks at Real Clear Politics believe this is an attainable goal for the GOP. Other sites, such as CQ Politics and the Rothenberg Political Report, have the Republicans falling short of recapturing control of the House. I have complied a list of the most competitive U.S. House races based on the ratings given to these races by five respected political handicappers: the Cook Political Report (Cook), Congressional Quarterly (CQ), Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (Sabato), the Rothenberg Political Report (Rothenberg), and Real Clear Politics (RCP).
A rating of 0 means the race is a pure toss-up. A negative rating means the seat is likely to stay in the hands of the party currently holding the seat. A positive rating means the race is likely to change party hands. The higher the positive number, the more likely the seat will flip. The lower the negative number, the more likely the seat will stay with the current party.
The following are the 21 House seats currently held by Democrats that are most likely to be won by the Republican candidate in November.
(1) TN-6 (Open)
Diane Black (R) v. Brett Carter (D)
My Rating: +50
(2) LA-3 (Open)
Undetermined R (Primary 8/28) v. Ravi Sangisetty (D)
My Rating: +40
(3) AR-2 (Open)
Tim Griffin (R) v. Joyce Elliott (D)
My Rating: +35
(4) NY-29 (Vacant)
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Matt Zeller (D)
My Rating: +30
(5) CO-4
Cory Gardner (R) v. Rep. Betsy Markey (D)
My Rating: +15
(6) KS-3 (Open)
Kevin Yoder (R) v. Stephene Moore (D)
My Rating: +15
(7) MD-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D)
My Rating: +15
(8) NM-2
Steve Pearce (R) v. Rep. Harry Teague (D)
My Rating: +15
(9) OH-1
Steve Chabot (R) v. Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
My Rating: +15
(10) OH-15
Steve Stivers (R) v. Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
My Rating: +15
(11) IN-8 (Open)
Larry Bucshon (R) v. Trent Van Haaften (D)
My Rating: +12
(12) MS-1
Alan Nunnelee (R) v. Rep. Travis Childers (D)
My Rating: +12
(13) ND-AL
Rick Berg (R) v. Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D)
My Rating: +12
(14) NH-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
My Rating: +12
(15) NH-2
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Undetermined D (Primary 9/14)
My Rating: +12
(16) TN-8 (Open)
Stephen Fincher (R) v. Roy Herron (D)
My Rating: +10
(17) NV-3
Joe Heck (R) v. Rep. Dina Titus (D)
My Rating: +7
(18) VA-5
Robert Hurt (R) v. Rep. Tom Perriello (D)
My Rating: +7
(19) FL-24
Undetermined R (Primary 8/24) v. Undetermined D (Primary 8/24)
My Rating: +5
(20) MI-7
Tim Walberg (R) v. Rep. Mark Schauer (D)
My Rating: +5
(21) PA-7 (Open)
Pat Meehan (R) v. Bryan Lentz (D)
My Rating: +5
A rating of 0 means the race is a pure toss-up. A negative rating means the seat is likely to stay in the hands of the party currently holding the seat. A positive rating means the race is likely to change party hands. The higher the positive number, the more likely the seat will flip. The lower the negative number, the more likely the seat will stay with the current party.
The following are the 21 House seats currently held by Democrats that are most likely to be won by the Republican candidate in November.
(1) TN-6 (Open)
Diane Black (R) v. Brett Carter (D)
My Rating: +50
(2) LA-3 (Open)
Undetermined R (Primary 8/28) v. Ravi Sangisetty (D)
My Rating: +40
(3) AR-2 (Open)
Tim Griffin (R) v. Joyce Elliott (D)
My Rating: +35
(4) NY-29 (Vacant)
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Matt Zeller (D)
My Rating: +30
(5) CO-4
Cory Gardner (R) v. Rep. Betsy Markey (D)
My Rating: +15
(6) KS-3 (Open)
Kevin Yoder (R) v. Stephene Moore (D)
My Rating: +15
(7) MD-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D)
My Rating: +15
(8) NM-2
Steve Pearce (R) v. Rep. Harry Teague (D)
My Rating: +15
(9) OH-1
Steve Chabot (R) v. Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
My Rating: +15
(10) OH-15
Steve Stivers (R) v. Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
My Rating: +15
(11) IN-8 (Open)
Larry Bucshon (R) v. Trent Van Haaften (D)
My Rating: +12
(12) MS-1
Alan Nunnelee (R) v. Rep. Travis Childers (D)
My Rating: +12
(13) ND-AL
Rick Berg (R) v. Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D)
My Rating: +12
(14) NH-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
My Rating: +12
(15) NH-2
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Undetermined D (Primary 9/14)
My Rating: +12
(16) TN-8 (Open)
Stephen Fincher (R) v. Roy Herron (D)
My Rating: +10
(17) NV-3
Joe Heck (R) v. Rep. Dina Titus (D)
My Rating: +7
(18) VA-5
Robert Hurt (R) v. Rep. Tom Perriello (D)
My Rating: +7
(19) FL-24
Undetermined R (Primary 8/24) v. Undetermined D (Primary 8/24)
My Rating: +5
(20) MI-7
Tim Walberg (R) v. Rep. Mark Schauer (D)
My Rating: +5
(21) PA-7 (Open)
Pat Meehan (R) v. Bryan Lentz (D)
My Rating: +5
Welcome!
This blog will be devoted to extensive coverage of the 2010 midterm elections. We will focus on not only the "big" races (U.S. Senate, Governorships, U.S. House), but also on state legislative races. All comments, corrections, and additions are welcome.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)