The Republicans are eyeing an open Southeast Louisiana district as an excellent pick-up opportunity this November.
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district takes in the southeast quarter of the state. This is a swampy area where most of the roads have to be built on stilts to make them navigable. The 3rd takes in much of southern Louisiana's Cajun population, with their distinctive accents and unique cultural traditions. The area also includes metro New Orleans suburbs in St. Bernard Parish.
The first decade of the 21st century has not been kind to this part of the country. Much of the 3rd district was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina and it is struggling to recover economically. The 3rd has declined in population by nearly 3% since 2000. The BP oil spill and the Obama administration's subsequent halt to offshore oil drilling further hampered economic prospects in the 3rd.
The district is ancestrally favorable to conservative Democrats, but the district does not react favorably to present-day national Democrats. John McCain carried the district by a decisive 61%-37% margin in 2008. It is widely expected that if Louisiana loses a congressional district after the 2010 census (as it almost certainly will due to population exodus following Katrina), the 3rd will be carved up and split among neighboring districts. The 2nd district, which has declined in population by almost 30%, is unlikely to be eliminated due to it being the state's lone black-majority district.
The Congressman from the 3rd district is moderate Democrat Charlie Melancon. Melancon has represented the 3rd since 2004, when he won the seat of powerful Democrat-turned-Republican Billy Tauzin by defeating Tauzin's son among others. Melancon is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative-to-moderate House Democrats. In August 2009, Melancon announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. He easily secured the Democratic nomination but is an underdog in his bid to unseat Republican Senator David Vitter in November.
Melancon's decision to run for the Senate created a big opening for Republicans to pick up this seat. The early GOP frontrunner was former Louisiana House Speaker Hunt Downer. Downer, who had been a Democrat for most of his political career, came under withering attack from the right for his past party affiliation and, probably more damning in this district, a lifelong politician. Conservatives and tea party activists rallied behind New Iberia Businessman and Army Veteran Jeff Landry. In the August primary election, Landry won a divisive victory earning 49% of the vote in a three-way primary. Downer finished a distant second, but still advanced to the October 2 runoff election since no candidate reached the 50% threshold.
Since the primary, the Louisiana Republican Party has thrown its full support behind Landry and the third-place candidate in the primary has wholeheartedly endorsed Landry. Downer has been pressured to bow out of the race, but has yet to do so. Landry is looking more and more like he will emerge as the GOP nominee and he has begun to focus much of his energies on the general election.
Democrats struggled to find a nominee to fill Melancon's shoes. The only Democrat to run was Houma Attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Sangisetty, like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, is of Indian descent. Sangisetty has failed to fundraise on par with Landry and he will be a heavy underdog against either Landry or Downer in November.
Republicans are virtually locked in to pick up this district. Landry is a good bet to advance to the November general election and he seems poised to take this conservative-oriented seat. His win should offset the expected loss of GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in the neighboring 2nd district, who was elected in a heavily Democratic district over a scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent in 2008.
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