A member of the Democratic House class of 2008 faces a difficult re-election bid in a suburban Las Vegas district.
Nevada's 3rd congressional district, newly created after the state gained a 3rd seat following the 2000 census, is an oddly-shaped (it looks much like the letter "Y") slice of Clark County including portions of the city of Las Vegas and most of the Las Vegas suburbs, including rapidly-growing Henderson just southeast of Las Vegas. The 3rd is the fastest growing district in Nevada, having grown in population by nearly 40% since 2000. In the likely event that Nevada receives a 4th congressional district in the 2010 census, the 3rd will likely need to shed 300,000+ people.
This district was designed to be competitive between the parties and it has been. Republican Rep. Jon Porter represented the district from its creation in 2002 through 2008. In 2008, Porter was challenged by Nevada Senate Minority Leader and 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. Titus capitalized on voter unrest over the sagging Las Vegas economy and benefitted greatly from Barack Obama's dominant (for a district George W. Bush carried in 2004) 55%-43% victory in the 3rd. Despite being outspent nearly 2-to-1 Titus beat Porter 47%-42%.
Titus has been a reliably liberal vote during the 111th Congress. She has been a key supporter of much of President Obama's agenda, including the health care reform bill and economic stimulus proposals.
As a freshman incumbent who won with only 47% of the vote, Titus was an obvious target for Republicans bent on recapturing this seat. Republicans recruited ex-State Senator, army reservist, and ER physician Joe Heck to run against Titus. Heck sailed to an easy victory in the GOP primary. Heck has based much of his campaign around Titus's controversial first term votes for health care reform and for the stimulus packages.
Titus has amassed a large war chest and will have the financial advantage over her Republican opponent, unlike in 2008. However, the economic situation in Nevada has not improved in the last two years and voters are more likely to blame Democrats come this November. Polling in the race has been a mixed bag, with some polls showing Titus leading by a point or two and other polls showing Heck leading by up to 5 points. Regardless, this is sure to be one of the tightest races in the country on Election Night. If the Republicans want to win a House majority, though, they need to win many these toss-up races.
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