A freshman Democrat will face a tough challenge to secure a second term in central Illinois.
The 11th district of Illinois is an ungainly T-shaped district cut out of the swampy lands south of Chicago. The district includes most of fast-growing Will County, including the city of Joilet. Also in the 11th are several rural counties and a thin strip of land heading south to the city of Bloomington. This is one part of Illinois that is growing rapidly. The 11th's population has grown by over 12% since 2000.
Downstate Illinois has been Republican since the days of Abraham Lincoln, often acting as a counterbalance to heavily Democratic Chicago. Will County has become a political battleground, a must-win for successful statewide candidates. After supporting George W. Bush 54%-46% in 2004, the 11th switched to support Illinois native Barack Obama 53%-45% in 2008.
A prime beneficiary of the 2008 Obama wave was Democrat Debbie Halvorson. Halvorson, a longtime Mary Kay saleswoman from Crete, was first elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and later became Senate Majority Leader. In 2008, Halvorson was the beneficiary of Republican foibles. Five-term Republican Representative Jerry Weller chose not to seek re-election due to his involvement in some sketchy land deals in Central America. Next, the winner of the Republican primary, Tim Baldermann, withdrew from the campaign just weeks after securing the nomination, citing his unwillingness to fundraise. Republicans eventually settled on political novice Marty Ozinga, whose campaign never took flight.
Halvorson, buoyed by Obama's strong showing in the 11th, won a surprisingly easy victory in this battleground district 58%-34%. Halvorson has compiled a moderate-to-liberal voting record during her first term. She voted in favor of the Obama Health Care bill and much of President Obama's agenda.
Republican Adam Kinzinger will be Halvorson's November opponent. Kinzinger, 32, is hoping to become one of the youngest members of the Republican House Caucus (he has a few years on 29-year old Republican Aaron Schock of the neighboring 18th district). Kinzinger has been something of a political wunderkind, winning a seat on the McLean County Board while still in college. Kinzinger later joined the U.S. Air Force where he served in Iraq. Youthful and telegenic, Kinzinger began running against Halvorson early in 2009 and easily secured the GOP nomination in the February primary.
The Halvorson-Kinzinger race has been steadily trending in Kinzinger's direction. Both the Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics now rate this race as "Leans Republican." Halvorson has nearly $1.5 million cash on hand as of the latest reporting cycle, so she is sure to saturate the airwaves in Joliet and Bloomington and everywhere in between during the coming days. Kinzinger has proved to be a solid fundraiser in his own right, raising over $1 million already this cycle. Both national parties are set to buy airtime in the district.
The shift toward Kinzinger was obvious in an August WeAskAmerica poll. In this poll, Kinzinger led Halvorson by the stunning margin of 52%-32%. Even though this number is sure to tighten as November 2nd nears, 32% is a woeful number for any incumbent less than three months from Election Day. For now, Kinzinger has the advantage and Halvorson will have to hope for a change in the political winds to win a second term.
No comments:
Post a Comment