A vulnerable member of the Democrat Freshman class faces a tough re-election battle in a heavily Republican district.
Maryland's 1st congressional district contains all of Maryland's legendary Eastern Shore. These long-settled farming and tourism dependent counties, separated from the rest of Maryland by the Chesapeake Bay, have long valued their uniqueness. As recently as 1998, a resolution was debated in the Maryland Assembly to grant the Eastern Shore independence from the rest of Maryland and to allow it to seek separate statehood. The 1st also reaches across the Bay into heavily Republican suburbs north of Baltimore.
The 1st was designed by Democratic redistricters to be heavily Republican so as to allow other Maryland districts to elect Democrats. The Eastern Shore has long favored Republicans, despite the fact that most of its counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even as Barack Obama won a decisive 26% victory in Maryland, he lost the 1st overwhelmingly 59%-40%.
The huge GOP advantage in the 1st made the 2008 election of Democrat Frank Kratovil all the more surprising. Kratovil benefitted immensely from a long-standing split between moderate and conservative Republicans in the 1st to squeak to victory two years ago. In the 2008 GOP primary, conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated 18-year incumbent Wayne Gilchrest 43%-33%. Harris repeatedly hammered Gilchrest for his moderate stands on national defense and economic issues.
Gilchrest refused to concede to Harris and effectively opened the door for a Kratovil win. Harris outraised Kratovil, but the DCCC spent over $2 million on Kratovil's behalf, effectively eliminating any financial advantage Harris had. Kratovil campaigned as a moderate and narrowly won 49%-48%.
In his first term, Kratovil has hued to the center of the House. He was one of 11 Democrats to oppose Obama's economic stimulus plan (he later supported the final Senate version) and he voted against the White House's Health Care package. Kratovil supported the controversial cap and trade legislation.
In March 2009, Harris announced that he would challenge Kratovil in 2010. Moderate businessman Rob Fisher also ran in the September GOP primary. Fisher outspent Harris and received the endorsement of Gilchrest, but Harris cruised to an easy 2-to-1 victory.
The Kratovil-Harris rematch promises to be one of the GOP's best chances to knock off a Democratic incumbent. The 1st is heavily Republican and although the moderate-conservative divide still exists, the wounds of 2008 are not nearly so fresh in 2010. Additionally, Kratovil now has to run as an incumbent and his national party leaders are very unpopular in the 1st. Harris is one of the most well-funded GOP challengers this cycle and he will be able to spend on par with the incumbent. Harris can also probably count on the support of the anti-tax group Club for Growth, which helped him upend Gilchrest in 2008.
Both candidates are well-known in the 1st after the bruising 2008 campaign. Given Kratovil's narrow margin of victory and the Republican's anticipated strength this year, expect Harris to win this go around.
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