A House freshman, elected by the narrowest of margins in 2008, faces an uphill battle to retain a conservative Virginia district in an atmosphere hostile to Democrats.
Virginia's 5th district takes in over 9,000 square miles of mostly rural communities in south central and central Virginia. This sleepy land, once populated by antebellum plantations, is now filled with farms and small manufacturing towns. At the northern tip of the 5th is Charlottesville, a liberal hamlet that is home to Thomas Jefferson's University of Virginia. The district is also home to the historic village of Appomattox Court House in Appomattox County, where Robert E. Lee officially surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant to end the Civil War.
This part of Southside Virginia has a long conservative Democratic tradition dating back to the days of Robert E. Lee. Today, the 5th routinely favors national Republicans, voting for George W. Bush twice and favoring John McCain 51%-48% in 2008. However, academic Charlottesville is heavily Democratic and 22% of the 5th's population is African-American. providing a modern-day Democratic base of support in the district.
The 5th was represented by conservative Democrat-turned-Independent-turned-Republican Virgil Goode from 1996 until 2008. Goode's brand of southern conservatism served him well in the 5th and he was routinely re-elected handily. In 2008 with the Republican label hurting throughout Virginia, Goode was challenged by former national security consultant Tom Perriello. Perriello had a base of support among the academic community in Charlottesville and he managed to make inroads in rural parts of the district by emphasizing the importance of his religious beliefs. Perriello additionally benefitted from higher African-American turnout as a result of Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. In the end, the Goode-Perriello election was one of the closest in the country. Perriello prevailed 50.1%-49.9%, a margin of less than 750 votes.
Perriello, unlike his fellow Virginia freshman Glenn Nye, has been a supporter of much of the Obama agenda during his first term in office. Perriello voted in favor of the Obama health care bill and the cap and trade legislation.
Perriello's narrow victory and partisan voting record have made him one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House. Seven Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to square off against Perriello in the November general election. State Senator Robert Hurt emerged from the primary as the convincing winner, garnering over 48% of the vote in the crowded field. Hurt, an attorney from Chatham in Pittsylvania County, represents a State Senate district comprising nearly 1/4 of the 5th's population. Hurt boasts conservative positions across the board and is hoping to stoke anti-incumbent, anti-Washington sentiment in his early advertising.
Perriello has proved to be a dynamic fundraiser and has over $1.7 million cash on hand to spend in the coming weeks. Hurt has fundraised well, but the challenger will be at a major cash disadvantage heading into the home stretch of the campaign. All the money in the world may not help Perriello win a second term. Two SurveyUSA polls have shown Hurt leading by over 20%. If either of these polls is even close to accurate, Perriello faces a seemingly impossible uphill battle to retain this conservative district.
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