U.S. House Race Spotlight - Florida 8th District

The loudest member of the 2008 freshman class faces a tough re-election campaign in central Florida.

Florida's 8th district includes fast-growing areas in and around Orlando, including the gigantic Walt Disney World complex.  The district moves northward to take in some more rural, but growing, areas in Lake and Marion Counties.  Like much of Central Florida, this district's population has boomed in the last decade.  The 8th's population has increased by over 20% since the 2000 census.  Orlando's Orange County was a GOP stronghold two decades ago, but today it is moving toward Democrats.  In 2002, Republicans controlled the redistricting process in Florida and they attempted to make the 8th a Republican district by parcelling off heavily Democratic Orlando precincts into the African-American majority 3rd district.

Until 2008, the 8th elected Republican Ric Keller to four terms by increasingly slim margins.  When first elected in 2000, Keller had pledged to serve only four terms, a promise he broke to seek re-election in 2008.  Democrats sensed an opportunity to defeat Keller and nominated wealthy Harvard-educated lawyer Alan Grayson.  Grayson capitalized on voter discontent with Keller's broken term limits pledge and benefitted from Barack Obama's 52%-47% victory in the district.  Grayson prevailed 52%-48% over the incumbent.

From his first days in office, Grayson was a national figure.  Grayson became a frequent cable news guest and has made news on numerous occasions for his outlandish comments on a wide variety of issues: calling Rush Limbaugh a "has-been hypocrite loser", claiming that Republican opposition to Obama's health care bill meant the GOP wanted sick people to "die quickly", labeling tea partiers who flocked to Glenn Beck's Washington rally as "the people who were wearing sheets over their heads 25 years ago."

Grayson's combative personality and penchant for verbal fireworks have made him a darling of the American left and have made him a fundraising star in the Democrat Party.  Conversely, his leftist views and unwillingness to work across party lines make him an appealing target for Republicans in this swing district.

Seven Republican candidates filed for the right to challenge Grayson in the 2010 general election.  In the August primary, former Florida House Speaker and Florida Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster emerged as the clear winner, garnering over 40% of the vote.  No other candidate received more than 23% of the vote.

Webster is a well-known Florida pol from his years as a Republican leader in Tallahassee.  He is running on conservative staples of less government, lower taxes, personal responsibility, individual freedom, and empowering families.

Grayson enters the final weeks of the campaign with an overwhelming financial advantage over Webster.  Grayson's national stature, fundraising prowess, and personal wealth virtually assure him of being able to pull out all the stops to keep his seat.  However, the Republican Party and conservative interest groups have pledged to target the bombastic Grayson.

There is no doubt that Grayson's brand of liberalism is well outside of the mainstream in this nearly evenly split district.  Additionally, Grayson will not have the top of the ticket help he had in his initial election.  These factors, at present, make Webster a slight favorite. Real Clear Politics ranks this race as "Leans Republican" and Stuart Rothenberg ranks it as "Tilt Republican."  Grayson's nearly limitless financial resources, however, almost assure that this will be race that goes right down to the wire.