South Dakota will be the site of one of the most fiercely competitive House races in the country this November.
South Dakota has had only one congressional district since it lost its second district after the 1990 census results. The state's population growth has been slow in recent decades and it is not expected to top 800,000 in the 2010 census. Sioux Falls, in the southeast part of the state, is South Dakota's largest city with a population nearing 150,000. Over half of South Dakotans live in areas classified by the Census Bureau as urban, certainly a change from most of the state's history.
Traditionally, South Dakota politics has been mostly Republican, although it is open to Democrats, especially in tough economic times. It has also been home to national Democratic leaders in George McGovern and Tom Daschle. The cultural liberalism of the most recent Democratic Presidential nominees has led South Dakota to support national Republicans, twice voting for George W. Bush (by 60%-38% in 2004) and favoring John McCain in 2008 by the narrower margin of 53%-45%.
Since 2004, South Dakota's lone house seat has been represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Originally elected as Stephanie Herseth in a 2004 special election to fill the term of Congressman Bill Janklow, the congresswoman married former Texas Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin in 2007.
Telegenic and hailing from a well-known South Dakota political family, Herseth Sandlin has compiled a moderate voting record on most issues. She is a top-ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee and she holds a subcommittee chairmanship on the Veterans' Affairs Committee, both valuable spots for any South Dakota representative. After two narrow victories in the 2004 special election and general election, she won easily in 2006 and 2008.
In the 111th Congress, Herseth Sandlin has continued to show her independence from her party. She opposed the Obama health care package as well as the cap and trade legislation.
With 2010 shaping up to be a very strong year for South Dakota Republicans and with President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi very unpopular in the state, Herseth Sandlin is a GOP target. Three Republicans ran in the June primary for the right to challenge Herseth Sandlin in November. State Representatives Kristi Noem, from Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota, and Blake Curd, a doctor from Sioux Falls, spent and raised large sums of money to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson spent very little. In the end, Noem prevailed with 42%. Nelson finished second with 35% and Curd, despite outspending both opponents, trailed with 23% of the vote.
Noem, who serves as Assistant Majority Leader in the South Dakota House, is a rancher and mother of three. She is campaigning as a cultural and economic conservative. She is attempting to tie Herseth Sandlin to the unpopular Pelosi and Obama.
Herseth Sandlin enters the final few weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage, but outside spending by interest groups and the national parties will also have a major impact. Rasmussen's polling on this race has been all over the place, with polls in March and April showing Herseth Sandlin leading comfortably and summer polls showing Noem taking a large lead. The most recent Rasmussen poll is probably the most accurate; it shows Herseth Sandlin leading 47%-45%, well within the margin of error.
Herseth Sandlin has a record that may allow her to prove to South Dakota voters that she is no Pelosi clone. However, the popular congresswoman has never run in such a poisonous political environment for Democrats. Noem is an energetic and telegenic candidate who is certainly capable of knocking off Herseth Sandlin. This is a true toss-up race at this point, with no clear favorite. If I had to make a pick right now, I would give Noem a very, very slight edge. Republicans will need to win here and in neighboring North Dakota's At-Large district if they have any inclinations of winning a House majority.
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