One of the fun parts of every election cycle for political nerds like me is following the "Open Seat" races where the incumbent has retired, been defeated in his or her primary, or foregone re-election to seek another office. This year there are a great deal of competitive open seat races (seats either party could win in November). I have already discussed a number of these races in my "U.S. House Race Spotlight" series. I will continue my attempt to feature every competitive House race on this blog before Election Day.
This post is about the 18 races I have identified as non-competitive open seats. In each of these 18 seats, the incumbent will not be on the ballot, but (barring an absolute catastrophe) the seat will remain in the hands of the party currently holding it. This post will introduce you to 18 new faces who are almost certain to be sworn in as U.S. Representatives come January 2011.
(1) Indiana 3
The District: The 3rd takes in the northeast corner of the Hoosier State. It includes most of Allen County, including the city of Fort Wayne. The district also includes most of economically depressed Elkhart County, although more Democratic-leaning precincts in the city of Elkhart were parceled off into the neighboring 2nd district. This part of Indiana has been a Republican stronghold since the Civil War and it continues to be so today, voting for George Bush 68%-31% in 2004 and favoring John McCain 56%-43% even while Barack Obama carried Indiana in 2008.
Who's Leaving: Republican Mark Souder resigned in May after his affair with a part-time staff member became public. Souder was initially elected in the GOP wave of 1994 and held the conservative seat with relative ease for 15+ years. Souder, a Christian conservative, announced his resignation in order to repair his family life and his faith. The sudden resignation came after Souder had won a contested primary for re-election.
Who's Coming: Souder's resignation created a brief three and a half week campaign for the Republican nomination in the 3rd. A total of 15 candidates threw their hats in the ring with the winner being determined by a June caucus of 400 district party precinct committee members. After two ballots, the Republicans nominated 34 year old State Senator Marlin Stutzman. Stutzman had risen to prominence during his eight month campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator. Ultimately, Stutzman lost the five candidate May U.S. Senate primary to former Senator Dan Coats 39%-29%.
Stutzman's energetic Senate campaign won him the respect of many Indiana Republicans and served him well in securing the support of a majority of the party precinct committee members at the special caucus. A strong social and fiscal conservative, Stutzman appears well suited to this conservative district. His strong showing in the Senatorial primary, his youthful energy, and his conservative zest will make Stutzman a face to watch in the 112th Congress.
(2) Michigan 13
The District: Michigan's 13th district is made up of most of inner city Detroit and some working class suburbs to the northeast and south of the city. The district is one of the poorest in the nation, with over 30% of the district's population living below the poverty line. Almost 60% of the district's rapidly declining population is African-American. It is one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the country, favoring Barack Obama by an 84%-16% margin in the 2008 Presidential election.
Who's Leaving: The 12-year congressional career of liberal Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will come to its end at the close of this year. Kilpatrick, who initially came to office by defeating Rep. Barbara Rose-Collins in the 1996 Democratic primary, suffered a defeat in the August Democratic primary at the hands of State Senator Hansen Clarke. Kilpatrick, a former leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, had been a lightning rod in Detroit since her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, resigned from office in 2008 after a scandal involving his relationship with a female aide.
Kilpatrick narrowly survived the Democratic primary in 2008, garnering 39% of the vote in a three-way race. This year, Clarke was able to defeat Kilpatrick by just over 3,000 votes in a low turnout primary election.
Who's Coming: State Senator Hansen Clarke will be the new representative in the 13th district. Clarke grew up on Detroit's east side where he was raised by a single mother who worked as a school crossing guard. Clarke received a scholarship to attend Cornell, where he majored in painting. Clarke later received his law degree from Georgetown. After law school, Clarke returned to Detroit and was elected to the Michigan House for three terms prior to being elected to the Michigan Senate in 2008.
Clarke will be a fresh face to represent this impoverished and population declining district. Due to Voting Rights Act concerns, it is unlikely that redistricters will eliminate this district even though its population has dropped by approximately 9% in the last decade. However, Clarke will face a district with many different constituents in 2012 and he may well be thrown into a district with another Democrat. Whether Clarke can become a force on Capitol Hill may well depend on how redistricting effects the district.
(3) South Carolina 4
The District: South Carolina's 4th district is one of the most conservative districts in the country. The 4th includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg and their same named counties as well as part of two more rural counties. The 4th voted for John McCain 60%-38% in 2008 with white voters favoring the GOP candidate by an even higher margin.
Who's Leaving: Congressman Bob Inglis represented the 4th from 1993-1998 and has represented the district again since his election in 2004. Inglis, a lawyer from Greenville, compiled a conservative voting record during his first six years in Congress. After running unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 1998, Inglis returned to his law practice until his successful return to the House in 2004.
During his second tenure, Inglis veered toward the center, a dangerous move in a strongly conservative district. Inglis voted against the troop surge in Iraq and became one of the loudest Republican voices warning of the dangers of global warming. In the 111th Congress, Inglis backed the unpopular Wall Street bailout bill as well as controversially voted to censure fellow South Carolina Representative Joe Wilson for his "You lie" statement during President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress. Inglis prevailed by a 2-to-1 margin against an underfunded GOP primary challenge in 2008. This year Inglis was not so lucky. In the June Republican primary, Inglis received only 27% of the vote against four challengers. Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy, running to Inglis's right, garnered 39% of the vote. In the runoff election two weeks later, Gowdy trounced Inglis 71%-29% to secure the GOP nomination for the general election.
Who's Coming: Trey Gowdy will be the new 4th district representative in the 112th Congress. Gowdy's overwhelming defeat of incumbent Bob Inglis in the Republican primary runoff virtually assures him of election in the fall. Gowdy, the son of a doctor, served as a federal prosecutor in Greenville prior to being elected 7th Circuit (Spartanburg County) Solicitor in 2000.
Gowdy campaigned as a strong cultural and economic conservative and repeatedly hammered Inglis as out of touch with this conservative district. Gowdy's message resonated with Republican voters. Gowdy will no doubt be a strong conservative voice in the 112th Congress.
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