September 14 Primaries

Tomorrow is the virtual culmination of 2010 primary season (Hawaii holds its primaries Saturday and Louisiana has some run-off elections scheduled for October 2).  New York, New Hampshire, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and Maryland will all hold primary elections to decide the Republican and Democrat nominees in hotly contested races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and Governorships.

This primary-by-primary look will give you an idea of what is at stake tomorrow night and how each of these races fits into November's political landscape.

Governors' Races

(1) Wisconsin Governor - Republican
Conservative Ex-Congressman Mark Neumann and more centrist Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are the top two GOP candidates.  They are vying for the right to face Milwaukee Mayor and Ex-Congressman Tom Barrett, who has only token opposition in his primary.  Either GOP candidate will enter the general as a very slight favorite in what is sure to be one of the closest gubernatorial races this year.

(2) New Hampshire Governor - Republican
Four GOP candidates are sparring for the right to oppose Democrat Governor John Lynch.  Former New Hampshire HHS official and two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate John Stephen recently snagged the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph.  Also in the race are State Rep. Frank Emiro, Businessman Jack Kimball, and Religious Right Activist Karen Testerman.  Whoever emerges from this four-way primary will face a very steep uphill battle to unseat the popular Lynch.

(3) New York Governor - Republican
The GOP establishment has lined up behind former Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Lazio.  However, recent polls have showed tea party favorite Carl Paladino surging.  Paladino has trumpeted his outsider status and has vowed to take a sledgehammer to the burgeoning Empire State budget if elected.  Neither Lazio nor Paladino have much of a shot at the Governor's Mansion, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will be the overwhelming favorite in November.

(4) Rhode Island Governor - Republican
Businessman and former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille is expected to secure the GOP nomination against ex-State Representative Victor Moffitt, although anything is possible in what is sure to be a very light turnout among the Bay State's slim number of Republican voters.  The winner will face a tough three-way race against Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee.  In a twist that could only happen in a place like Rhode Island, Caprio is widely viewed as the most conservative candidate in the race and Chafee as the most liberal.  It will be up to the GOP nominee to attempt to chart a centrist course and somehow garner the 35%-40% that will likely be necessary for the win.

House Races

(1) Maryland 1st District - Republican
Moderates, including former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, have lined up behind IT Consultant and Army Veteran Rob Fisher.  Fisher has spent freely, but the favorite here is conservative State Senator Andy Harris.  Harris defeated Gilchrest in the GOP primary in 2008, but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Frank Kratovil.  This is a prime GOP pick-up opportunity in November regardless of which nominee emerges.

(2) New Hampshire 1st District - Republican
A crowded field of 8 GOP candidates are running for the right to face two-term Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who won a surprising election in 2006. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has raised the most money and has the benefit of high name recognition in one the district's largest cities.  Businessman Sean Mahoney has spent freely from his own funds.  Defense contractor Rich Ashooh has also been competitive.  The winner of the primary will enter the general election campaign slightly favored to oust Shea-Porter in November.

(3) New Hampshire 2nd District - Republican
Moderate ex-Congressman Charlie Bass is the favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee in the 2nd.  Several candidates, including ex-State Rep. Bob Guida and Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, are running to Bass' right, but the former Congressman's superior fundraising and name recognition should allow him to win the nomination.  If Bass does win, he will be favored to retake this open seat.

(4) New Hampshire 2nd District - Democrat
The Democrat primary in this open seat that has been vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes has grown increasingly nasty.  Attacks have flown between the camps of attorney Ann McLane Kuster and Political Consultant Katrina Swett to the extent that the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party begged both sides for a ceasefire.  The winner of the primary will face a tough campaign to keep this seat in Democratic hands.

(5) Wisconsin 7th District - Republican
District Attorney and former Real World houseguest Sean Duffy has emerged as the overall favorite to take this seat, which has been held for over 40 years by retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey.  Duffy will first have to get past the Republican primary, where he is being challenged by 2008 GOP nominee Dan Mielke.  Expect Duffy to cruise to an easy victory here.  He will be a candidate to watch in November.

(6) Wisconsin 7th District - Democrat
State Senator Julie Lassa is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination.  She faces Realtor Don Raihala in the primary, but her real challenge will be the general election against presumptive GOP nominee Duffy.

(7) New York 19th District - Republican
Conservative ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is the favorite to win the GOP nomination to oppose vulnerable Democratic Rep. John Hall in November.  Hayworth is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party Activist Neil DiCarlo.  Hayworth has spent freely and should have little trouble securing the GOP nod.  The GOP nominee will start out as the underdog, but virtually everyone realizes that Hall is vulnerable.

Sorry to cut this article short, but life intervened and I wasn't able to discuss every important primary before watching the election returns tonight!