U.S. House Race of the Day - Ohio 15th District

Ohio's 15th district will be the site of one of the most pivotal rematches of the 2010 election cycle.  The 15th takes in most of Columbus and the suburban areas to the west of Ohio's capital city.  The Columbus area has historically been Republican, but the 15th trended Democratic in 2008, voting for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 54%-45% margin.

The 15th's representative, Mary Jo Kilroy, was swept into office on the Obama-wave in 2008.  It is widely agreed among political analysts that Kilroy is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in 2010.  In 2008, the freshman lawmaker was elected by 2,300 votes due to a confluence of factors working in her favor.  First and foremost among these factors was obviously Obama's strength in the district.  Kilroy also benefitted from the presence of two minor-party candidates on the 2008 ballot in the 15th district.  A libertarian and a pro-life conservative on the ballot took nearly 10% of the vote in 2010.

Kilroy's Republican opponent, in 2008 and again this year, is Steve Stivers.  Stivers was a State Senator when he first challenged Kilroy in 2008.  Stivers served for 25 years in the Ohio National Guard and emphasizes economic issues.  He has some moderate positions on social issues, including supporting abortion rights.  The 2008 Kilroy-Stivers election was one of the closest and most costly House races in the country.  Both Kilroy and Stivers spent over $2 million and the Democratic Party spent freely in an attempt to get Kilroy elected.

Both national and local trends appear to favor Stivers in the rematch.  Nationally, the wind has turned in the direction of the Republicans due to the unpopularity of President Obama and the Democratic Congress.  Stivers has also made news recently for outraising Kilroy and currently Stivers has the cash advantage on the incumbent, something highly unusual for a challenger.  Stivers will have to contend with the presence of both Libertarian Party and Constitution Party candidates on the November ballot, which could theoretically siphon off some right-wing votes from Stivers like what happened in 2010.  Kilroy, however, will vulnerable to attack due to her votes for the Obama Health Care bill and for the stimulus bill.  Two polls conducted earlier this month showed Stivers with a 5 point lead.

Republicans will need to reclaim this district in 2010 to reclaim the House majority.  In Stivers, Republicans have a candidate who can appeal to Democrats and Independents, but he will have to contend with some conservative backlash at the ballot box to win this swing district.