For Republicans to gain a majority in the U.S. House in 2010, they will need to win in conservative southern districts like Mississippi's 1st district. The 1st encompasses much of the northern third of Mississippi and includes Oxford, home of Ole Miss, Tupelo, and the fast-growing Memphis suburbs in DeSoto County.
The 1st elected conservative Democrat Jaime Whitten to Congress for over 53 years until 1994. When Whitten finally retired in 1994, Republican Roger Wicker won the open seat contest and held the seat until his appointment to the U.S. Senate in December 2007. In the contests to replace Wicker, the 1st reverted to its historic preference for conservative Democrats. After managing his way through 6(!) different elections in 2008, realtor and Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers won election to the final part of Wicker's term and to his own 2-year term. Childers country persona appealed to voters in the 1st as he defeated suburban mayor Greg Davis in both the special election and the November general election.
Childers is a member of the House "Blue Dogs", a coalition of conservative and moderate Democrats. He has been willing to break with his party, most notably in opposing the Obama Health Care package. Childers has, however, been a reliable Democratic vote on most economic issues and he staunchly opposed the Iraq War and has called for the quick withdrawl of all combat troops in Iraq.
Childers was a natural target heading into the 2010 election cycle due to the overwhelmingly Republican nature of the district in national elections. John McCain carried the district 62%-38% in 2008. The Cook Political Report rates the district R +14.
Three Republicans filed to take on Childers in 2010. The winner of the Republican primary was Alan Nunnelee, a veteran state senator from Tupelo. Nunnelee defeated Henry Ross and Angela McGlowan with 52% of the total vote, narrowly avoiding the run-off election that would have been required under Mississippi law had no candidate received over 50% of the vote.
Childers enjoys a cash on hand edge over Nunnelee and both the NRCC and the DCCC plan to air ads in the 1st district. Childers will have to spend freely to tout his independence from the national Democrat Party, which is highly unpopular in northern Mississippi. Childers also will need to work to get out the vote among the 1st's African-American population, which accounts for over 27% of the district's total population.
A confluence of factors currently makes Nunnelee the slight favorite to unseat Childers. First, the current political environment strongly favors the GOP. Second, the district tilts strongly toward Republicans. Third, Nunnelee is an experienced pol with 16 years of experience in winning election to the State Senate.
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