Competitive U.S. House Races

Anyone who follows politics at all knows that for Republicans to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November they must have a net gain of 39 seats.  Some non-partisan prognosticators, such as Charlie Cook at the Cook Political Report and the folks at Real Clear Politics believe this is an attainable goal for the GOP.  Other sites, such as CQ Politics and the Rothenberg Political Report, have the Republicans falling short of recapturing control of the House.  I have complied a list of the most competitive U.S. House races based on the ratings given to these races by five respected political handicappers: the Cook Political Report (Cook), Congressional Quarterly (CQ), Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (Sabato), the Rothenberg Political Report (Rothenberg), and Real Clear Politics (RCP).  

A rating of 0 means the race is a pure toss-up.  A negative rating means the seat is likely to stay in the hands of the party currently holding the seat.  A positive rating means the race is likely to change party hands.  The higher the positive number, the more likely the seat will flip.  The lower the negative number, the more likely the seat will stay with the current party.

The following are the 21 House seats currently held by Democrats that are most likely to be won by the Republican candidate in November.


(1) TN-6 (Open)
Diane Black (R) v. Brett Carter (D)
My Rating: +50

(2) LA-3 (Open)
Undetermined R (Primary 8/28) v. Ravi Sangisetty (D)
My Rating: +40

(3) AR-2 (Open)
Tim Griffin (R) v. Joyce Elliott (D)
My Rating: +35

(4) NY-29 (Vacant)
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Matt Zeller (D)
My Rating: +30

(5) CO-4
Cory Gardner (R) v. Rep. Betsy Markey (D)
My Rating: +15

(6) KS-3 (Open)
Kevin Yoder (R) v. Stephene Moore (D)
My Rating: +15

(7) MD-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D)
My Rating: +15

(8) NM-2
Steve Pearce (R) v. Rep. Harry Teague (D)
My Rating: +15

(9) OH-1
Steve Chabot (R) v. Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
My Rating: +15

(10) OH-15
Steve Stivers (R) v. Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
My Rating: +15

(11) IN-8 (Open)
Larry Bucshon (R) v. Trent Van Haaften (D)
My Rating: +12

(12) MS-1
Alan Nunnelee (R) v. Rep. Travis Childers (D)
My Rating: +12

(13) ND-AL
Rick Berg (R) v. Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D)
My Rating: +12

(14) NH-1
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
My Rating: +12

(15) NH-2
Undetermined R (Primary 9/14) v. Undetermined D (Primary 9/14)
My Rating: +12

(16) TN-8 (Open)
Stephen Fincher (R) v. Roy Herron (D)
My Rating: +10

(17) NV-3
Joe Heck (R) v. Rep. Dina Titus (D)
My Rating: +7

(18) VA-5
Robert Hurt (R) v. Rep. Tom Perriello (D)
My Rating: +7

(19) FL-24
Undetermined R (Primary 8/24) v. Undetermined D (Primary 8/24)
My Rating: +5

(20) MI-7
Tim Walberg (R) v. Rep. Mark Schauer (D)
My Rating: +5

(21) PA-7 (Open)
Pat Meehan (R) v. Bryan Lentz (D)
My Rating: +5