The scorched earth of southern New Mexico will play host to one of the hottest House races of 2010. New Mexico's 2nd district covers most of the southern half of the state, including Las Cruces, Alamogordo, Roswell, and Hobbs. The district stretches northward all the way to suburban areas south of Albuquerque, New Mexico's most populous city.
The 2nd leans Republican on the whole. The southeast area of New Mexico, known as Little Texas, shares the conservative political traditions of its namesake. The 2nd is a majority minority district (49% of the district's population is Hispanic and only 41% is white), but there are high percentages of non-citizens among the Hispanic population. Additionally, New Mexico Hispanics are not traditionally as heavily Democratic in their voting preferences as are Hispanics in other states.
The 2nd elected Republican Joe Skeen to Congress 11 times from 1980-2000. After Skeen retired in 2002, the 2nd elected Republican Steve Pearce to 4 terms. Pearce, a former state legislator and Hobbs businessman, had a conservative voting record and joined the Republican leadership as an assistant whip. In 2008, Pearce decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by long-time New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici. Pearce faced an intense primary challenge from fellow House member Heather Wilson. Pearce won the primary 51%-49% by racking up big margins in southern New Mexico. The primary proved costly to Pearce and he never gained any momentum in the general election. As Barack Obama carried New Mexico 57%-42%, Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall defeated Pearce soundly 61%-39%.
Meanwhile, the open seat contest to succeed Pearce in representing the 2nd district garnered the attention of both national parties. Democrats nominated wealthy Hobbs businessman and former Lea County Board of Commissioners President Harry Teague. The Republican candidate was Edward Tinsley, Pearce's primary opponent in 2002 and a wealthy rancher and businessman. Both candidates spent freely from their personal fortunes and the national parties weighed in to make this a very expensive race. In the end, Teague prevailed by the surprisingly strong margin of 56%-44% even as John McCain narrowly carried the district.
Teague has a relatively moderate voting record during his first term. Most critically, Teague broke with his party and was 1 of 39 Democrats who voted against President Obama's health care package.
In August 2009, Pearce announced that he would challenge Teague for his old seat. The battle between the two Hobbs businessmen who have represented this district since 2002 has drawn the attention of both the DCCC and the NRCC. Teague will likely have a leg up financially with his ability to self-fund (at latest reporting he had well over $1 million cash on hand). Early indications, however, showed that Teague was vulnerable; a February PPP poll showed Pearce with a 2 point lead.
In Pearce, Republicans have found a candidate with great name recognition and with a history of winning elections in this district. This explains why three non-partisan national political handicappers (Sabato, Rothenberg, and Real Clear Politics) have this race listed as Leans Republican. Teague will have to spend freely to distance himself from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Obama in order to be re-elected in this Republican leaning district.
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