If current projections hold up, North Dakota's lone congressional district could very well be the site of the defeat of one of the most tenured and powerful members of the House Democratic Caucus. North Dakota voters have long favored the GOP in Presidential elections, mostly due to the culturally liberalism of the national Democrat Party. Despite its Republican leanings, North Dakota has sent three Democrats to represent it in Congress for the last 18 years: U.S. Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad and Representative Earl Pomeroy.
Republicans are virtually assured of ending this 18-year frustration as Dorgan has retired and popular Republican Governor John Hoeven is a safe bet to win this year's Senate election. Republicans are also giddy about their opportunity to unseat Pomeroy, who despite his relatively liberal voting record has managed to be elected as U.S. Representative at-large 9 times in North Dakota.
Since his initial election to the House in 1992, Pomeroy has survived tough elections in touch political environments (see 1994 when Pomeroy won his first re-election to the seat with 52%, surviving the GOP wave that knocked out so many Democrat incumbents that year) and tough elections against well-financed opponents (see 2002 when Pomeroy once again prevailed with 52% against Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh). Meanwhile, Pomeroy has become a powerful member of the House Democratic Caucus. Currently, Pomeroy is the only House member to have seats on both the Ways and Means Committee and the Agriculture Committee.
Republicans nominated long-time State Representative and Fargo businessman Rick Berg to challenge Pomeroy this November. Berg has represented a Fargo-based North Dakota House district for over 25 years, during which he has served as both House Majority Leader and Speaker. Berg is running on a down-the-line conservative platform and has been freely attempting to link Pomeroy with President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, both of whom are exceedingly unpopular in North Dakota.
Another major issue in the general election will be health care. Pomeroy, unlike many of his Democratic colleagues who represent Republican-leaning districts, voted in favor of the Obama Health Care package. The so-called "ObamaCare" plan is extremely unpopular in North Dakota. Berg has made repeal of the health care bill a key tenet is his campaign.
The Berg-Pomeroy race will no doubt be one of the most competitive and costly races in 2010. North Dakota voters are likely to be saturated with advertising in the next couple months as both the DCCC and the NRCC have pledged to target this district. Pomeroy, as a long-serving incumbent, enjoys a considerable cash on hand advantage over Berg, but the unpopularity of national Democrats in North Dakota is so high that no matter the money spent, Pomeroy may not be able to survive.
Rasmussen has been polling this race for several months and every poll has showed Berg with a lead of between 3-9%, with the latest poll of likely voters showing Berg leading 53%-44%. For a challenger to be consistently leading in a series of polls by such margins, the incumbent is obviously in a very difficult situation. Pomeroy has won tough, close elections before, but it remains to be seen if he can pull another rabbit out of his hat in what is shaping up to be one of the worst political environments in recent memory for North Dakota Democrats.
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