After the 2008 elections, it was viewed as an absolute impossibility for Republicans to retake control of the U.S. Senate in 2010. By stealing the senatorial election in Minnesota and installing Stuart Smalley as a U.S. Senator and by persuading turncoat Arlen Specter to switch parties, the Democrats had a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the 100-member Senate (two seats are held by "independents": Joe Lieberman, who occasionally shows some independence from the Democratic Party bosses but usually ends up towing the line and Bernie Sanders who is a self-identified Socialist - no need to guess which party he caucuses with!).
The political environment has changed dramatically since November 2008 and now there is some buzz that the GOP may actually do what was once thought impossible and gain a Senate majority. This Republican surge was first noticed in January in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state of the Union. Republican Scott Brown shocked the political establishment by defeating Democrat Martha Coakley to fill the seat once held by Ted Kennedy. Brown's victory gave the GOP 41 Senate seats, ending the filibuster-proof majority.
To gain a governing majority in the Senate, the Republicans will need a net gain of 10 seats. While certainly not outside the realm of possibility, my current analysis has the GOP falling 2-3 seats short of a majority. Despite the hostile political atmosphere for Democrats (Congressional approval is at an all-time low as is President Obama's approval rating), there are several factors working against the Republicans reclaiming a Senate majority.
First, U.S. Senate seats come up for election only once every six years (barring the death or resignation of the incumbent). This year 37 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of those 37 seats, 19 are currently held by Democrats and 18 are currently held by Republicans. The balance in the number of seats up for election this cycle puts the Republicans at a severe disadvantage. In order to gain a majority, the Republican Party will have to not only hold all 18 seats they currently control, but also will have to win 10/19 seats currently held by Democrats.
A second factor working against Republicans claiming a Senate majority is the fact that five incumbent Republican U.S. Senators from "swing states" are not seeking re-election this cycle. These Republicans are George Voinovich in Ohio, Kit Bond in Missouri, George Lemieux in Florida, Jim Bunning in Kentucky, and Judd Gregg in New Hampshire. The result of these resignations/retirements is that Republicans will have to expend extra resources just to hold on to these five seats. While current polls seem to show that all five seats could stay in Republican hands, it is possible for one or two of these seats to go to the Democratic candidate. If one of these five races is won by the Democratic candidate, the Republicans would need to win 11/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority. If two of these races are won by Democrats, Republicans would need to win 12/19 seats held by Democrats to win a majority.
Third, Republicans are simply not competitive at all in six of the 19 seats currently held by Democrats. These six seats are held by Democratic incumbents who are virtual shoe-ins for re-election: Daniel Inouye in Hawaii, Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, Charles Schumer in New York, Kristen Gillibrand in New York, and Patrick Leahy in Vermont. So, the pool of Democratic seats from which Republicans must win 10-12 is not a pool of 19 seats, but actually a pool of 13 seats.
Not all is lost for those of us hoping for a Republican takeover in 2010. Republicans are locks to hold on to 11/18 seats currently held by the GOP and are strong favorites to hold on to two others. Additionally, of the 13 competitive seats currently held by Democrats, at least 11 seats are either toss-ups or the Republican candidate is favored to win. So, while it will take a big Republican wave in November, with virtually every close race falling into the Republican column, Republican Senate control in the next Congress is certainly a possibility that cannot be overlooked.
No comments:
Post a Comment