This November all 163 seats in the Missouri House of Representatives will be up for election. Currently, Republicans represent 89 seats in the Missouri House and Democrats represent 74 seats. All indications are that 2010 will be a strong year for Republicans in Missouri. Republicans outvoted Democrats by huge numbers in the August 3 primary and every recent poll has shown Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt with a significant lead over his Democratic opponent, Robin Carnahan. Missouri voters overwhelming rejection of the Obama Health Care plan via proposition vote in August shows how unpopular the crowning jewel of Obama's first two years is with Show-Me State voters.
Missouri House members are subject to term limits which allow them to serve only four 2-year terms consecutively. The result of term limits is that there are many open seat races (no incumbent on the ballot) for the Missouri House every election cycle as incumbents finish their four terms in office. Open seats are historically much more competitive than seats where an incumbent is on the ballot.
I have rated every one of the 163 Missouri House races based on an analysis of the voting preferences of that district since 2002 and presence or non-presence of an incumbent on the ballot with an advantage given to Republicans due to the factors working in their favor this year. Admittedly, there is some guesswork involved as polling data is not readily available for Missouri House races!
I have placed each Missouri House district in one of the following categories: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican), Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat), Leans Democrat, Likely Democrat, Safe Democrat. I have concluded that 65 seats are "Safe Republican" seats where the Republican candidate is running unopposed, faces only minor party competition, or the district so heavily favors Republicans that the Democratic candidate has no chance to win. On the flip side, I have concluded that 40 seats are "Safe Democrat" seats for the same reasons.
This leaves 57 Missouri House seats that I have categorized as "competitive" in November. Of these seats, 34 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans. Due to the prevailing political winds this year, I would say that many of the races rated "Likely Republican" and "Lean Republican" will stay in Republican hands. Conversely, many of the races rated "Likely Democrat" or "Lean Democrat" have the strong potential to become toss-ups before Election Day. If any of my readers have any insight to add about any of these races, I would love to hear from you.
Here is a list of the 57 competitive Missouri House races based on my current projections.
Likely Democrat (22)
D6: (OPEN)
Carl Thomson (D)
Lindell Shumake (R)
D11:
Rep. Ed Schieffer (D)
Mike Clynch (R)
D27:
Rep. Pat Conway (D)
Jason Gregory (R)
D29: (OPEN)
Bill Caldwell (D)
Galen Higdon (R)
D31 (OPEN)
Jay Swearingen (D)
Matthew Thompson (R)
D46: (OPEN)
Kevin McManus (D)
Rodney Williams (R)
D53: (OPEN)
Diane Egger (D)
Brent Lasater (R)
D66: (OPEN)
Genise Montecillo (D)
Bill Hartzog (R)
D75:
Rep. Bert Atkins (D)
Bryan Koen (R)
D78:
Rep. Margo McNeil (D)
Glen Lindemann (R)
D79: (OPEN)
Mary Nichols (D)
Dan Johnson (R)
D90:
Rep. Sam Komo (D)
John McCaherty (R)
D96: (OPEN)
Scott Sifton (D)
Tony Leech (R)
D101:
Rep. Tim Meadows (D)
Charles Huey (R)
D102:
Rep. Jeff Roorda (D)
Paul Wieland (R)
D105:
Rep. Michael Frame (D)
Paul Curtman (R)
D107:
Rep. Linda Fischer (D)
John Fischer (R)
D110: (OPEN)
Ben Harris (D)
Carrie Cabral (R)
D137:
Rep. Charlie Norr (D)
Melissa Leach (R)
D138:
Rep. Sara Lampe (D)
John Sellars (R)
D152: (OPEN)
Shane Van Steenis (D)
Paul Fitzwater (R)
D163:
Rep. Tom Todd (D)
Kent Hampton (R)
Lean Democrat (9)
D2:
Rep. Rebecca McClanahan (D)
Zachary Wyatt (R)
D8:
Rep. Tom Shively (D)
William Foster (R)
D10: (OPEN)
Linda Witte (D)
Jay Houghton (R)
D32:
Rep. Jason Grill (D)
Ron Schieber (R)
D52: (OPEN)
Robbie Makinen (D)
Noel Torpey (R)
D85:
Rep. Vicki Englund (D)
Cloria Brown (R)
D100: (OPEN)
Andrew Spavale (D)
Marsha Haefner (R)
D124:
Rep. Luke Scavuzzo (D)
Rick Brattin (R)
D161:
Rep. Steve Hodges (D)
Ron McCormick (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Democrat) (3)
D17:
Rep. Kenny Biermann (D)
Vicki Schneider (R)
D24:
Rep. Chris Kelly (D)
Laura Nauser (R)
D91:
Rep. Jeanne Kirkton (D)
Rick Magee (R)
Toss-Up (Currently Held by Republican) (1)
D22: (OPEN)
Randy Asbury (R)
Doug Galaske (D)
Lean Republican (7)
D1: (OPEN)
Craig Redmon (R)
Keri Cottrell (D)
D5: (OPEN)
Glen Klippenstein (R)
Judy Wright (D)
D21: (OPEN)
John Cauthorn (R)
Kelly Schultz (D)
D33:
Rep. Jerry Nolte (R)
Jim Stoufer (D)
D48: (OPEN)
Gary Cross (R)
Gavin Fletchall (D)
D120:
Rep. Scott Largent (R)
Zac Maggi (D)
D121:
Rep. Denny Hoskins (R)
Courtney Cole (D)
Likely Republican (15)
D7:
Rep. Mike Lair (R)
Dale Toms (D)
D19: (OPEN)
Kurt Bahr (R)
Matt Simmons (D)
D28: (OPEN)
Delus Johnson (R)
Mark Sheehan (D)
D30: (OPEN)
Nick Marshall (R)
Lexi Norris (D)
D34: (OPEN)
Myron Neth (R)
Mark Ellebracht (D)
D35: (OPEN)
T.J. Berry (R)
Jim Baldwin (D)
D36:
Rep. Bob Nance (R)
Barbara Lanning (D)
D38:
Rep. Ryan Silvey (R)
Debbie Colozza (D)
D54: (OPEN)
Jeanie Lauer (R)
John Bullard, Jr. (D)
D55: (OPEN)
Sheila Solon (R)
Clay Rodgers (D)
D94:
Rep. Rick Stream (R)
Deb Lavender (D)
D97: (OPEN)
Gary Fuhr (R)
Jan Polizzi (D)
D122:
Rep. Mike McGhee (R)
Holmes Osborne (D)
D149: (OPEN)
Keith Frederick (R)
Paul Long (D)
D153: (OPEN)
Steve Cookson (R)
George Meyers (D)
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