The 2nd Congressional District of Arkansas encompasses eight counties in the central part of state. The heart of the district is in the state capital of Little Rock. This district is the second fastest-growing of the state's four congressional districts, with population growth estimated at over 6% since the 2000 census. Like most of Arkansas, the Little Rock area has a long-standing preference for Democratic candidates. However, the liberalism of the modern, national Democratic Party has made the 2nd into a Republican-leaning district in Presidential politics. The district voted for Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by a 54%-44% margin.
The 2nd has been represented in Congress by Democrat Vic Snyder since 1996. After winning a close first election to Congress, Snyder has been re-elected with no less than 58% in a district with conservative leanings. Snyder's voting record is the most liberal among Arkansas's congressional delegation and he was a major Republican target coming into this year's election cycle. In January, after an independent poll showed Snyder trailing his presumptive Republican opponent, Tim Griffin, by 17 points, Snyder decided to retire from Congress to spend more time with his new family. Snyder married a Methodist minister in 2003 and at the age of 62 has a three-year old son and one-year old triplet sons.
This seat was a Republican pick-up opportunity before Snyder's retirement and with the incumbent off the ballot Republican chances increased. Griffin, an Iraq War veteran and former U.S. Attorney who is well-connected in national Republican circles, became the early favorite to succeed Snyder. Griffin dispatched fellow Republican Scott Wallace in the GOP primary 62%-38% to secure the party's nomination. Meanwhile, the Democrat primary failed to produce a winner with liberal Arkansas State Senator Joyce Elliott leading the balloting with 39% and moderate State House Speaker Robbie Wills lagging behind in 2nd place. Under Arkansas law, if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff election must be held. The June runoff resulted in a narrow 54%-46% victory for Elliott. Elliott, an African-American, will have a solid base of support in the district's 20% black population. However, Miles was widely viewed as the more electable Democratic candidate in November due to his moderate views fitting better with the overall conservative tilt of the district.
In his first post-primary financial report, Griffin reported contributions of almost $1 million and over $300,000 cash on hand. Elliott reported nearly $500,000 in contributions but only $100,000 cash on hand after the tough primary election fight. A recent poll released by Talk Business showed Griffin leading Elliott 52%-35% among likely voters. Barring some unforeseen developments, Griffin seems likely to flip this seat from blue to red come November.
Story on recent poll showing Griffin with 15 point lead
Griffin's Campaign Website
Elliott Campaign Website
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