The following is a brief description of each of the 13 competitive U.S. Senate races where the seat is currently held by a Democrat. As discussed in the previous post, Republicans will need to win between 10-12 of these races in order to gain a Senate majority. The races are listed from the most likely to be won by the Republican candidate to the least likely. I'm once again using my rating system where a "0" rating means a pure toss-up race, a positive number means the seat is likely to change party hands and a negative number means the seat is likely to stay with party that currently holds it.
(1) North Dakota (+75)
When Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan announced his retirement, this seat was viewed as an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. When popular North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven announced his candidacy, the seat quickly became a lock to switch to Republican control. Hoeven was first elected Governor of North Dakota in 2000 and easily won a third term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Recent polls show Hoeven with an astronomical lead over his opponent, State Senator Tracy Potter. This one is all over except for the voting.
(2) Delaware (+35)
This is the seat that Joe Biden vacated to become vice-president. When Biden resigned his seat shortly after the 2008 election, then Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Democrat Ted Kaufman to fill out the remainder of the term. Kaufman immediately let it be known that he would not be a candidate for election this year. Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, was widely considered the favorite to fill his dad's old Senate seat. Beau had been elected Delaware Attorney General in 2006 and seemed to be a rising star in the small world of Delaware politics. After much speculation, Beau surprised most analysts with a January 2010 announcement that he would not run for the U.S. Senate, but would seek re-election as Delaware's Attorney General.
Biden's surprise decision left Democrats scrambling to find a suitable candidate to maintain a Senate seat they have held since 1972. Delaware Democrats eventually settled on New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Republicans, meanwhile, seem to have the ideal candidate to flip this seat in U.S. Congressman Michael Castle. Castle is a well-known name in Delaware politics having been elected statewide 12 times in his political career (once as lieutenant governor, twice as governor, and nine times as Delaware's lone representative in the U.S. House of Representatives). Castle has a moderate voting record, which generally plays well in Delaware. Castle is being challenged in the September 14 Republican primary by Christine O'Donnell, who has garnered support from tea party groups. While O'Donnell is certainly the more conservative candidate in the race, Castle is the more electable candidate. A Castle victory in the Republican primary will virtually guarantee that this seat flips to Republican control.
(3) Arkansas (+30)
Current polling shows Arkansas Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln to be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the nation. After barely surviving a primary challenge from Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, Lincoln's quest for a third Senate term will have to go through NW Arkansas Congressman John Boozman, the Republican nominee. A recent Rasmussen poll showed Boozman leading Lincoln by the eye-popping margin of 65%-27%, an unbelievable number for a non-scandal plagued incumbent. Even if this race narrows some in the coming months, it is very difficult to see how Lincoln survives.
(4) Indiana (+22)
This seat is being vacated by popular Democratic Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh's surprising retirement (he was widely viewed as a possible candidate for higher office) left Indiana Republicans salivating. Indiana's Republican leanings and the general Republican nature of this election cycle make this seat prime territory for a Republican takeover. Republicans recruited former Senator Dan Coats, who retired in 1998 paving the way for Bayh's initial election to the Senate, to run for the seat. Coats defeated lesser-known rivals in the Republican primary and will now face 8th district Congressman Brad Ellsworth in the general election. Ellsworth cuts a moderate profile and would generally be a strong candidate in Indiana, but the unpopularity of the Democratic Congress and Democratic President in the Hoosier State is likely to be Ellsworth's undoing. Barring some unforeseen developments, Coats will be returning to the Senate after a 12-year hiatus.
(5) Pennsylvania (+5)
One of the most exciting races to watch on election night will be the battle between conservative Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey and liberal Congressman Joe Sestak to become Pennsylvania's junior senator. Toomey rose to prominence in 2004 when he left his House seat to challenge Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican senatorial primary. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980 and had long been at odds with conservatives over many issues including his rejection of various judicial nominees (most notably Robert Bork). Toomey came out swinging in the 2004 primary and had the backing of national conservative groups. Specter had the support of the Republican establishment and the Bush White House. Specter survived the primary challenge 51%-49%. Specter won the general election that year by nearly 10%.
Specter was at odds with the majority of his party for much of his 5th term in the Senate. In early 2009, Toomey announced that he would challenge Specter again in the 2010 election. In April 2009 after a lot of hemming and hawing, Specter announced that he was switching parties and joining the Democratic caucus. Shortly after Specter's party switch, Sestak announced that he would challenge Specter in the Democratic primary. In the end, Specter had burned too many bridges with Pennsylvania Democrats and Sestak defeated him 54%-46%.
The saga of Arlen Specter has lead to a most interesting race between a conservative Republican who narrowly lost to Specter in a primary and a liberal Democrat who narrowly defeated Specter in a primary. Polls show the race to be nearly a dead heat, although recent signs may be pointing in Toomey's favor. Toomey will likely get some top of the ticket help, as Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett has consistently led his Democratic rival in polls. This is certainly a race to watch and is one that the GOP must win in order to win back the Senate.
(6) Illinois (+2)
No U.S. Senate seat has received more publicity over the last six years than this one. In 2004, this seat was claimed by a young state senator from Chicago named Barack Obama. When Obama was elected President, this seat became the subject of great controversy when scandal-plagued and soon to be impeached and removed Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris to fill out the remaining two years of Obama's term. In Blagojevich's recent criminal trial, 11/12 jurors apparently believed that the governor sold this seat!
Illinois Democrats were able to persuade the much-maligned Burris to forego any attempt to be elected to the seat and the race now comes down to Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and U.S. Congressman Mark Kirk (R). Both candidates have staked out relatively moderate positions on most issues. Polls have shown the race to the a dead heat since Illinois' February primary.
(7) Colorado (0)
After two hotly contested primaries, the general election in Colorado is shaping up to be a barnburner. The Republican nominee is conservative Ken Buck, a Weld County District Attorney who upset establishment favorite Jane Norton in the August 10 primary. Buck has come under fire for some comments he has made, but the party seems to be coalescing behind him. Buck will take on incumbent Michael Bennet in the general election. Bennet was appointed to the Senate in January 2009 after Ken Salazar was appointed Interior Secretary by President Obama. Bennet, with the backing of the Obama White House, defeated Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.
The general election between these two men of very different political persuasions is sure to be one of the closest of this election cycle. Buck will be counting on the enthusiasm of Republican voters in a state that has trended Democratic in the last couple election cycles. Bennet will be banking on the support of voters who gave Obama a 9% victory in Colorado in 2008. Bennet's closeness to the Obama White House will make this an election that will be more a referendum on the Obama Presidency than anything else.
(8) Nevada (0)
Perhaps the most hotly anticipated election of this cycle is the Nevada Senate race. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is seeking his 5th term. Reid is being challenged by tea party favorite Sharron Angle. Angle, who upset Republican establishment favorite Sue Lowden in the Republican primary, has proven to be a flawed candidate prone saying things deemed controversial in the mainstream media. However, Reid is horribly unpopular both nationally and at home, and even a candidate with Angle's weaknesses has a chance to knock off Reid in November.
No election will present a more stark contrast in the direction of the country than the Reid-Angle showdown. If Republicans are to gain a Senate majority, they must defeat the Majority Leader.
(9) California (-10)
Coming into this election cycle, few pundits would have predicted that far-left Senator Barbara Boxer was in any danger of losing her re-election bid. Boxer, first elected in 1992, has been a liberal flamethrower during her three terms in the Senate. Boxer is consistently rated as one of the most liberal members of the chamber and has a penchant for saying things that drive those of us on the right batty ("Call me Senator!"). Boxer's Republican opponent is former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
Fiorina may well be the conservative equivalent of Boxer, known to speak her mind and take no prisoners. Polls have shown this race tightening throughout the campaign season, with most analysts ranking this a toss-up at present. If Fiorina can overcome the liberal leanings of the Golden State and dethrone a left-wing icon, election night will be much sweeter for Republicans.
(10) Wisconsin (-10)
The Badger State is host to another race that has been consistently tightening throughout the campaign season. Liberal Senator Russ Feingold has always been relatively popular in the Democratic-leaning state, but recent polls have shown him in a dead heat with political novice and wealthy plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson. Heading into this election cycle, most pundits had Feingold as a safe bet for re-election, even in a Republican year. However, Johnson has built a base of support among conservative and tea party groups and has managed to appeal to a large cross-section of disaffected Wisconsin voters. If Johnson can sustain the momentum he has built, this could be the site of one of the biggest upsets of this campaign season.
(11) Washington (-15)
The self-described "Mom in Tennis Shoes", Democratic Senator Patty Murray, is facing yet another tough re-election battle. Murray has been a Republican target in each of her previous re-election campaigns, but she has managed to win with impressive numbers. Even in a strong Republican year, it will be an uphill battle to unseat Murray.
The Republicans have tapped Dino Rossi to face off against Murray. Rossi is well-known in Washington for his two narrow gubernatorial defeats at the hands of Governor Christine Gregoire. Rossi emerged from the August 17 primary, but has yet to receive the backing of fellow Republican candidate Clint Didier. For Rossi to have any chance to defeat Murray in November he must shore up his Republican base and appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats. At present, Murray is a favorite, but with 2+ months before the election and a well-known Republican candidate on the ballot this is still a possible GOP pick-up.
(12) Connecticut (-28)
The Connecticut Senate race is a rare example of an open seat race where the Republicans would have rather taken on the incumbent. Incumbent Senator Chris Dodd was almost a sitting duck to be defeated in November due to his bumbling of the mortgage crisis. However, Connecticut Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Dodd announced that he would retire at the end of his term. Into the Democratic void jumped Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Blumenthal emerged as the early favorite to hold the seat, but hit a bump in the road when it was revealed that he had been "exaggerating" about his Vietnam War service (lying is probably a better word).
The Republicans had a relatively competitive primary going between WWE CEO Linda McMahon and former Congressman Rob Simmons when Simmons pulled out of the race and then came back into the race a couple weeks later. Although coming under attack for the rampant steroid usage in the WWE, McMahon sailed to an easy victory.
From recent polling it seems that the stain of Blumenthal's Vietnam War verbal missteps has worn off and he is a favorite to take this seat in the dark blue state of Connecticut. However, with McMahon's large personal fortune to draw on and the obvious vulnerabilities of the Democratic candidate, this is not a seat Democrats can afford to take for granted.
(13) West Virginia (-40)
When long-time Democratic Senator Robert Byrd died in June 2010, the initial response of West Virginia's Democratic Governor Joe Manchin was that no election needed to be held until 2012. However, after several legal scholars balked, it was determined that under West Virginia law an election to fill the remainder of Senator Byrd's seat needed to be held this year. Manchin appointed the youthful Carte Goodwin to hold the seat until an election could be held. Manchin immediately declared himself a candidate for the Senate seat and he starts the campaign season as the clear favorite to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Manchin is exceedingly popular in West Virginia, having won re-election in 2008 by a 70%-26% margin. However, recently news has circulated that Manchin's office may be under investigation by the FBI. A Manchin scandal may provide an opening for former West Virginia GOP Chairman John Raese, the presumptive Republican nominee. If the FBI news doesn't amount to anything, expect Manchin to transfer from the Governor's Mansion to Capitol Hill in November.
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