U.S. House Race of the Day - Ohio 1st District

Ohio's 1st District will be the site of another hotly contested rematch between two candidates who went toe-to-toe in 2008.  The result in this district could possibly impact which party controls the U.S. House.  The 1st district includes most of the city of Cincinnati and its eastern suburbs.  While inner-city Cincinnati has become more and more Democratic in recent years, the suburbs are strongly Republican.  This mixture has made the 1st a competitive district for many years.

Republican Steve Chabot held this swing district for 14 years, first winning it in the Republican wave of 1994 and holding it through numerous tough election cycles until 2008.  During his tenure in the House, Chabot compiled a conservative voting record in line with most of his 1994 classmates.  A licensed attorney who spent his pre-Congressional career in private practice, Chabot was chosen as one of the House managers during President Clinton's impeachment trial.  Chabot also gained national attention as the author of the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban, signed into law by President Bush in 2003 and much litigated since.  

Chabot's conservative politics never made him universally popular in the divided 1st district.  In four of Chabot's six re-election races he received less than 55% of the vote.  In 2008, forces finally combined and Chabot was defeated 52%-47% by Democrat State Representative Steve Driehaus.   Driehaus benefitted from increased voter turnout among the district's African-American population due to Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket (28% of the 1st's population is African-American).  Driehaus ran as a pro-life, fiscal conservative and his moderate stands played well in 2008.

In Congress, Driehaus, unlike many Democrats elected in swing districts, voted for the Obama Health Care bill, making him vulnerable on that issue in November.  His vote on the health care bill also cost him the endorsement of the Right to Life, which has endorsed Chabot in the general election.  Chabot has already begun airing ads linking Driehaus to President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both of whom are not very popular among most Cincinnati voters.

Both the DCCC and the RNCC have pledged to spend money on this race.  At the latest reporting deadline, Chabot had a slight ($1 million to $970,000) cash on hand lead over Driehaus.  Two recent polls conducted in the 1st had drastically different results.  A We Ask America poll of 1001 registered voters conducted in early August showed Chabot leading Driehaus by 17%.  An AAF/Ayers poll done a couple weeks later of 400 likely voters showed Chabot leading by only 2%.  Either way, it is dangerous territory for an incumbent to be trailing in both the polls and the money race with only two months to go until the general election.  Chabot appears to be well-positioned to retake the seat he held for 14 years, but Driehaus cannot be counted out quite yet.