Every day until Election Day on Tuesday, November 2 (only 73 days away!) I am going to profile one or two races that will be crucial to the Republicans taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November. The GOP needs a net gain of 39 seats to win a majority.
Tennessee 6th District
Tennessee's 6th Congressional District covers a wide swath of territory in central and north central Tennessee. The district has seen large growth since the 2000 census, with an estimated increase in population upwards of 15%. Murfreesboro, the largest city in the 6th district, has seen high population growth in the last decade.
The 6th District has been represented by "Blue Dog" Democrat Bart Gordon since 1984. Gordon's local popularity enabled him to win election in this mostly conservative district 13 times, with his winning percentage dipping to 51% only in the 1994 Republican wave. In 2008, Gordon did not draw a Republican challenger and took 74% against an independent candidate. After facing some criticism for blaming a "technical glitch" for his failure to cast a vote on the auto bailout bill, Gordon announced in December 2009 that he would retire from Congress after 26 years at the end of the 111th Congress.
Gordon would have been a clear favorite to hold this seat, despite the Republican leanings of the district. However, with Gordon off the ballot, this seat has currently become the house seat most likely to shift from Democratic to Republican hands. This district voted for Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election by a 62%-37% margin. With an open seat race in a heavily Republican district in a heavily Republican year, this seat is all but in the Republican column.
The strong possibility of this district electing a Republican in November drew three well-funded Republican candidates for the August 5 primary. State Senator Diane Black from Gallatin campaigned as a "tough lady" conservative who had a history of getting things done during her 12-year tenure in the Tennessee legislature. Construction industry businesswoman Lou Ann Zelenik, a tea party activist, tried to position herself as the most conservative candidate in the race. Zelenik made headlines when she accused an Islamic group attempting to build a mosque in Murfreesboro of being "foreign agents." State Senator Jim Tracy attempted to court business and industry officials.
Zelenik and Brown both took to the airwaves with negative ads against each other resulting in Black's husband filing a libel lawsuit to attempt to halt the one of Zelenik's ads from airing (a judge declined to issue an injunction days before the primary election). The net effect was a virtual three-way tie. Once the dust settled, Black was victorious with 30.5% of the vote. Zelenik finished second with 30.2% and Tracy was third with 29.8%. Four other candidates accounted for the remaining 9.5% of the vote. Tracy conceded to Black late on election night, but Zelenik refused to concede. On August 17 Zelenik sent a message to supporters in which she congratulated Black on her victory ("assuming the vote margin remains the same"). In the message Zelenik repeated her pleas for Black's husband to drop the lawsuit pending against her.
The Democratic primary in the 6th District was a relatively quiet, though no less dramatic, affair compared to the raucous Republican primary. After failing to lure any more experienced, better known candidates into the race, the Democratic primary came down to a close, three-way race between three first time office seekers. In the end, Brett Carter, a tax attorney and Iraq War veteran garnered 30.3% of the votes cast to narrowly edge fellow Iraq War veteran Ben Leming who tallied 29.6% of the vote. Henry Clay Barry finished a close third with 28.6% of the vote.
The strong Republican tilt of the district was evidenced on primary night. Almost 80,000 people voted in the Republican primary, while less than 32,000 voted in the Democratic primary.
Republicans are counting on Black to reunite the party after the bitter primary. Black reported almost $200,000 cash on hand in mid-July and she had raised over $400,000. Carter, on the other hand, had almost $100,000 cash on hand of his full fundraising haul of $106,000 at that point in time. Despite some obviously lingering wounds within the Republican primary from the bitter Brown-Zelenik primary fights, it would still be a major surprise if Diane Black is not the next representative from the 6th District. The overall conservative leanings of the district coupled with the fact that the Democratic Congress and President Obama are exceedingly unpopular in Middle Tennessee make this seat a great pick-up opportunity for the GOP.
The Tennessean Coverage of 6th District
Diane Black Campaign Website
Brett Carter Campaign Website
Story on Zelenik's "concession" from the Tennessean
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