Indiana's "Bloody 8th" will be the sight of yet another fiercely competitive election in 2010. The 8th takes in the central west and southwest portions of the Hoosier State stretching over 100 miles north to south from Warren County through Terre Haute in Vigo County to Evansville in the far southwest corner of the state. The 8th's geographic disparities have long made it one of the most balanced districts in the nation. The northern parts of the 8th, like much of central Indiana, tend to favor Republicans. Southern Indiana's "butternut" country has long preferred conservative Democrats.
The 8th earned its nickname due to a series of exceedingly close elections beginning in the 1960s and continuing through to the present. In 1984, the Democrat-controlled House declared the Democrat candidate in the 8th the winner even though Indiana state officials had certified the Republican candidate as the winner. From 1994 to 2006, the 8th was represented by John Hostettler, one of the most outspoken social conservatives in the House. In 2006, Hostettler was handily defeated by moderate Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth seemed to be a good fit for the 8th: conservative on social issues, willing to break from his party, attentive to district interests, populist on economic issues. Ellsworth was handily re-elected 65%-35% in 2008.
In February 2010 after Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh announced that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate, Ellsworth decided to run to for the Senate. Ellsworth won the Democrat Party nomination, but is currently a slight underdog against former Senator Dan Coats, the Republican nominee. Ellsworth would have been a formidable opponent for any Republican challenger, but with his exit the 8th became a prime GOP pick-up opportunity.
The Republican primary was fiercely contested with eight candidates appearing on the May 4 ballot. Two candidates who had never held elected office rose to the top of the crowded primary field. One was Warrick County cardiothoracic surgeon Larry Bucshon, who was the candidate favored by the NRCC. The second was tea party favorite Kristi Risk. Risk led for much of election night, but Buchson prevailed 32%-29%.
Democrats were able to unite behind former Posey County Prosecuting Attorney and State Representative Trent Van Haaften, a social conservative who makes viable claims to be the heir to Ellsworth's political legacy. Van Haaften was unopposed in the May primary.
Neither candidate has been a fundraising dynamo, but both the NRCC and DCCC have committed to advertising expenditures in the 8th. In an election season where any semi-competitive Democratic-held open seat is up for grabs, the 8th is certainly an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP. Democrats have a candidate who is certainly capable of maintaining the district and one who would probably be favored in most election years. However, national Democrats are anathema in the 8th and if Bucshon can successfully link Van Haaften to President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he will probably prevail in November. With most polls closing in Indiana by 5:00 CST, this race should be an early signal of whether or not Republicans have a chance to retake the House.
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