Can Romney Win the Electoral College?

This is really the only question that matters with regard to the Presidential election, right?  We can bask (or fret) over the latest national poll numbers. We can debate whether Gallup's likely voter model is flawed.  In the end, what matters is whether Governor Romney or President Obama reaches 270 (or for Romney 269 because he would win the Presidency if a 269-269 electoral college tie resulted due to Republicans having control of more state congressional delegations) electoral votes. 

If you had asked me this question prior to the first Presidential debate, I would have glumly told you that I didn't say a Romney path to victory.  I felt that the American electorate had been blinded by Obama again and that the Romney campaign's difficulties had basically handed the President an undeserved second term.  The first Presidential debate was truly the type of game-changing debate that we have not seen in American politics in recent years (maybe going back to Kennedy-Nixon 1960). The debate presented Governor Romney as a legitimate Presidential presence and dispelled many of the negative perceptions about Romney that the Obama campaign had allowed to form the election narrative for August & September.

This is not to say that we can all book our tickets to the Romney inauguration in January 2013.  When we get into the nitty gritty state-by-state poll numbers this election is exceptionally close, but with momentum clearly in Romney's corner and (what I think will be the difference) a large enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. As is always the case in our electoral system, a close election will be decided by a handful of voters in several "swing" states.  Because of this, I will spend significant time on this blog dissecting a few states and will basically ignore the remaining states.

What we know as of this writing is that several Obama 2008 states are clearly in Romney's corner this year such as Indiana and North Carolina. Recently polling data also seems to indicate that Virginia and Florida are looking more favorable to Romney than was initially anticipated pre-debates.  That said, Romney cannot win the Electoral College without not only winning these four states, but also carrying some combination of Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  Recent polling shows very close races in all of these states. The fact that Romney is now competitive in both Pennsylvania and Michigan is good news for the GOP as well. I don't expect either of these states to turn red, but if either does the election is over for Obama.

The bottom line is that this election is shaping up to be very similar to 2000 & 2004, elections where either party could have prevailed given a change in the preferences of a few thousand voters in a certain swing state (Florida 2000/Ohio 2004).  One prediction I am comfortable making right now is that we will have a long night of election watching on November 6 before we know who will be President in 2013.