I have spent the better part of the day crunching some numbers on the Presidential Election. I have analyzed data from five well-respected, non-partisan political sites: Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Electoral-Vote.com & Real Clear Politics. Here is what the race boils down to at this point in time.
Romney has 75 electoral votes completely locked down.
*Alabama (9)
*Arkansas (6)
*Kansas (6) - yes, Kansas has proved to be good for something!
*Louisiana (8)
*Nebraska (4 - Nebraska apportions three of its electoral votes based on the individual results in its three congressional districts. Romney is likely to garner all 5 of Nebraska's electoral votes, but Nebraska's third congressional district voted for Obama in 2008 and is not completely locked down for Romney)
*Utah (6)
*Wyoming (3)
*Alaska (3)
*Idaho (4)
*Kentucky (8)
*Mississippi (6)
*Oklahoma (7)
*West Virginia (3)
None of these should come as a surprise. What this teaches us is that we need more people to move to the South.
Obama has 142 electoral votes completely locked down.
*California (55)
*Washington DC (3)
*Delaware (3)
*Hawaii (4)
*Illinois (20)
*Maryland (10)
*Massachusetts (11)
*New York (29)
*Rhode Island (4)
*Vermont (3)
Again, no surprises here. These are states that today wouldn't vote for a Republican in a Presidential Election under virtually any circumstances.
Romney has a very strong advantage in the competition for an additional 112 electoral votes. These are states he must win in order to win the election. The good news is that currently it is difficult to imagine a set of circumstances in which he would lose any of these states.
*North Dakota (3)
*Nebraska 3rd district (1)
*South Dakota (3)
*Texas (38)
*South Carolina (9)
*Tennessee (11)
*Georgia (16)
*Indiana (11)
*Missouri (10)
*Arizona (11)
Obama has a "strong" advantage in several other states amounting to 94 additional electoral votes. Most of these states are locked in for Obama, but a couple near of the bottom of the list have tightened in recent days and could potentially go to Romney. If any states on this list are red on Election Day, we are virtually guaranteed to have a President Romney in January.
*Washington (12)
*New Jersey (14)
*Connecticut (7)
*New Mexico (5)
*Maine (4 - Maine divides its electoral votes identically to Nebraska so there is potential for splitting there)
*Oregon (7)
*Minnesota (10)
*Michigan (16)
*Pennsylvania (20)
Assuming none of these states switch in the next couple weeks, that leaves us with Obama leading Romney 237-187 with 110 electoral votes outstanding. This means Romney will need to win 82 of these electoral votes to win the election. Obama only needs to win 33. If we have a tie at 269-269 (which is possible), Romney will win and the Electoral College will likely be done away with forever (can you imagine the controversy!?).
*North Carolina (15)
*Florida (29)
*Virginia (13)
*Colorado (9)
*New Hampshire (4)
*Iowa (6)
*Nevada (6)
*Wisconsin (10)
*Ohio (18)
If the Election were held today, I feel pretty confident that Romney would win North Carolina, Florida & Virginia. The others are very difficult to feel strongly about for either side. My gut tells me that Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa & New Hampshire are going to be difficult for Romney, but Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket may allow the GOP ticket to carry Wisconsin.
What this all comes to (once again) is that it is going to be quite difficult, though not impossible, for Romney to win the Electoral College without carrying Ohio. No Republican has won the Presidency without carrying Ohio since basically the birth of the GOP. Ohio is such an interesting state politically and I will analyze the state in greater depth in a future blog post.
Despite losing two electoral votes since the last election, Ohio is once again front and center in the battle for the White House.
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