Virtually everyone agrees that the Republicans will gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 2. There is great disagreement over how many seats the Republicans will flip. Most Democrats publicly say that their party will lose seats, but will maintain their majority (lose less than 39 net seats). A majority of non-partisan political handicappers seem to think the GOP will gain between 35-45 seats. Some in the GOP are floating the idea that this could be a truly historic election, with Republicans gaining 60+ House seats.
I have broken down 100 competitive races based on their likelihood to flip from Democrat to Republican this year. The "Category 1" GOP wave contains seats that are almost certain to flip even if the GOP "wave" is more like a tiny ripple. The "Category 10" GOP wave contains seats that will flip only if this election is a truly historic victory for the Republicans.
Category 1 GOP Wave:
-Louisiana 3 (Open)
-New York 29 (Open)
-Tennessee 6 (Open)
-Arkansas 2 (Open)
-Indiana 8 (Open)
-Kansas 3 (Open)
-Colorado 4 (Markey)
-Florida 24 (Kosmas)
-Illinois 11 (Halvorson)
-Ohio 15 (Kilroy)
Category 2 GOP Wave:
-Texas 17 (Edwards)
-Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
-Maryland 1 (Kratovil)
-Ohio 1 (Driehaus)
-Tennessee 8 (Open)
-Michigan 1 (Open)
-Virginia 5 (Perriello)
-Washington 3 (Open)
-New Hampshire 2 (Open)
-Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski)
Category 3 GOP Wave:
-Pennsylvania 3 (Dahlkemper)
-Mississippi 1 (Childers)
-North Dakota At-Large (Pomeroy)
-New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)
-Virginia 2 (Nye)
-Arkansas 1 (Open)
-New Mexico 2 (Teague)
-Pennsylvania 7 (Open)
-Florida 8 (Grayson)
-Wisconsin 7 (Open)
Category 4 GOP Wave:
-Arizona 5 (Mitchell)
-Michigan 7 (Schauer)
-Ohio 16 (Boccieri)
-Florida 2 (Boyd)
-Nevada 3 (Titus)
-Indiana 9 (Hill)
-New York 24 (Arcuri)
-Pennsylvania 8 (Murphy)
-South Carolina 5 (Spratt)
-South Dakota At-Large (Herseth Sandlin)
Category 5 GOP Wave:
-West Virginia 1 (Open)
-Georgia 8 (Marshall)
-Illinois 14 (Foster)
-New York 19 (Hall)
-Pennsylvania 10 (Carney)
-North Carolina 8 (Kissell)
-Wisconsin 8 (Kagen)
-California 11 (McNerney)
-Alabama 2 (Bright)
-Arizona 8 (Giffords)
Category 6 GOP Wave:
-Colorado 3 (Salazar)
-Ohio 18 (Space)
-Iowa 3 (Boswell)
-Illinois 17 (Hare)
-Texas 23 (Rodriguez)
-Florida 22 (Klein)
-Massachusetts 10 (Open)
-Missouri 4 (Skelton)
-New Jersey 3 (Adler)
-New Mexico 1 (Heinrich)
Category 7 GOP Wave:
-New York 1 (Bishop)
-New York 23 (Owens)
-Ohio 13 (Sutton)
-Oregon 5 (Schrader)
-Virginia 9 (Boucher)
-Georgia 2 (Bishop)
-New York 20 (Murphy)
-Idaho 1 (Minnick)
-Pennsylvania 12 (Critz)
-Indiana 2 (Donnelly)
Category 8 GOP Wave:
-Kentucky 6 (Chandler)
-Virginia 11 (Connolly)
-California 47 (Sanchez)
-Michigan 9 (Peters)
-Tennessee 4 (Davis)
-Washington 2 (Larsen)
-New York 13 (McMahon)
-Connecticut 4 (Himes)
-North Carolina 11 (Shuler)
-North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
Category 9 GOP Wave:
-Wisconsin 3 (Kind)
-California 20 (Costa)
-West Virginia 3 (Rahall)
-Connecticut 5 (Murphy)
-Kentucky 3 (Yarmuth)
-New York 25 (Maffei)
-Pennsylvania 17 (Holden)
-Pennsylvania 4 (Altmire)
-Colorado 7 (Perlmutter)
-Iowa 2 (Loebsack)
Category 10 GOP Wave:
-Rhode Island 1 (Open)
-Minnesota 1 (Walz)
-California 18 (Cardoza)
-Illinois 8 (Bean)
-Mississippi 4 (Taylor)
-North Carolina 2 (Etheridge)
-Ohio 6 (Wilson)
-Iowa 1 (Braley)
-Maine 1 (Pingree)
-Maine 2 (Michaud)
Category 10++ GOP Wave:
-New Jersey 12 (Holt)
-Washington 9 (Smith)
-Oregon 1 (Wu)
-New Mexico 3 (Lujan)
-Arkansas 4 (Ross)
-Georgia 12 (Barrow)
-Massachusetts 5 (Tsongas)
-Missouri 3 (Carnahan)
-Utah 2 (Matheson)
-Massachusetts 4 (Frank)
-Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
-Michigan 15 (Dingell)
-Mississippi 2 (Thompson)
-North Carolina 4 (Price)
-New York 22 (Hinchey)
-New York 4 (McCarthy)
-Ohio 9 (Kaptur)
-Oklahoma 2 (Boren)
-Oregon 4 (DeFazio)
-Tennessee 5 (Cooper)
-Minnesota 8 (Oberstar)
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